The paper extends Weyl's law to CROSSes, showing sharpness and polynomial improvement.
problem Understanding the error term in Weyl's law for different types of manifolds.
method Analyzing the Laplacian eigenvalues on Compact Rank One Symmetric Spaces (CROSSes).
result For CROSSes, the error term in Weyl's law is sharp, and for products of CROSSes, it can be polynomially improved.
This note provides an error bound for the Hartman-Watson integral's leading term.
problem Bounding the error of the leading term of the Hartman-Watson integral.
method Asymptotic expansion analysis focusing on the regime rt=ρ constant. result The error term is bounded uniformly as ∣ϑ(t,ρ)∣≤701t. The paper analyzes CycleGAN's error components for unpaired data generation.
problem Analyzing approximation and estimation errors in CycleGAN for unpaired data.
method Decomposes risk into approximation and estimation errors, analyzing each separately and considering their trade-offs.
result Theoretical insights into CycleGAN's performance through error analysis.
The study analyzes implicit biases in neural networks using backward error analysis.
problem Analyzing implicit biases in multitask and continual learning settings.
method Backward error analysis to compute implicit training biases, deriving modified losses with three terms.
result The conflict term, measuring gradient alignment, is a new quantity in continual learning.
Improved generalization bounds for SGD in non-convex learning.
problem Understanding generalization properties of SGD in non-convex settings.
method Introducing Type II perturbed SGD (T2pm-SGD) to analyze generalization error bounds.
result Tighter generalization error bounds for SGD in non-convex learning, especially for sub-Gaussian and bounded loss functions.
Estimates proper calibration errors and refinement terms in probabilistic predictions.
problem Lack of a general estimator for proper calibration errors and refinement terms with known statistical properties.
method Proposes a method for consistent, asymptotically unbiased estimation of proper calibration errors and refinement terms.
result Proves the relation between refinement and f-divergences, implying information monotonicity in neural networks.
Paper analyzes LSA algorithm bias and error bounds with RR extrapolation.
problem Analyzing bias and high-order error bounds of LSA with Markovian noise.
method Polyak-Ruppert averaging, linearization, Richardson-Romberg extrapolation.
result RR extrapolation effectively cancels the leading bias term.
The study sets lower bounds on MMSE for inferring sensitive features from noisy data.
problem Estimating sensitive features from noisy observations of correlated features.
method Adversarial evaluation framework based on MMSE estimation with theoretical lower bounds.
result Derives closed-form bounds for linear models, showing optimality in noise variance.
In the present paper, a decomposition formula for the call price due to Alòs is transformed into a Taylor type formula containing an infinite series with stochastic terms. The new decomposition may be considered as an alternative to the decomposition of the call price found in a recent paper of Alòs, Gatheral and Radoi…
Recent works have derived non-asymptotic upper bounds for convergence of underdamped Langevin MCMC. We revisit these bound and consider introducing scaling terms in the underlying underdamped Langevin equation. In particular, we provide conditions under which an appropriate scaling allows to improve the error bounds in…
Efficient kernel method learns differential equations with fewer data.
problem Learning differential equations with limited data and computational resources.
method Kernel-based framework for differential equations with theoretical error bounds.
result Significant improvements in accuracy and computational efficiency.
End-to-end ASR error detection using audio-transcript entailment.
problem Detecting transcription errors in ASR systems to prevent error propagation.
method Proposes a novel end-to-end approach using audio-transcript entailment, with acoustic and linguistic encoders.
result Achieves CER of 26.2% on all transcription errors and 23% on medical errors specifically, improving by 12% and 15.4% respectively over a strong baseline.
We develop a technique for deriving data-dependent error bounds for transductive learning algorithms based on transductive Rademacher complexity. Our technique is based on a novel general error bound for transduction in terms of transductive Rademacher complexity, together with a novel bounding technique for Rademacher…
New approach shapes error distribution in long-term forecasting.
problem Disparate error distributions in recent transformer models.
method Loss shaping constraints to respect upper bounds on loss at each time-step.
result Competitive average performance with shaped error distribution.
In this paper, in following of the first part (which ADF tests using ACI evaluation) has conducted, Time Series (TSs) are analyzed using decomposition analysis. In fact, TSs are composed of four components including trend (long term behavior or progression of series), cyclic component (non-periodic fluctuation behavior…
The paper analyzes prediction error in nonstationary settings using weighted risk minimization.
problem Prediction under distribution drift and nonstationary conditions.
method General decomposition of excess risk into learning and drift terms, proving oracle inequalities under mixing conditions.
result Oracle inequalities for the learning error, providing bounds that hold uniformly over arbitrary weight classes.
Study rates of convergence for approximate solutions to linear ill-posed problems in Hilbert scales.
problem Linear ill-posed inverse problems with noisy data.
method Approximate reconstructions from random noisy data using regularization schemes in Hilbert scale.
result Explicitly established error bounds for smooth regression functions.
Certain theoretical aspects of vector autoregression (VAR) as tools to model economic time series are revised, in particular their capacity to include both short term and long term information. The VAR model, in its error correction form, is derived and the permanent-transitory decomposition of factors proposed by Gonz…
In this paper we consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of multiplicative seasonal autoregressive moving-average (SARMA) models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent.We relax the standard independence assumption on the error term in order to extend the range …
Cryptocurrency prices predicted using LSTM, SVM, and polynomial regression.
problem Uncertainty in crypto coin values.
method Long Short Term Memory, Support Vector Machine, Polynomial Regression models.
result Support Vector Machine with linear kernel had the smallest mean square error.
Study counts geodesics on hyperbolic 3-manifolds, proving prime theorems.
problem Counting primitive closed geodesics on compact hyperbolic 3-manifolds.
method Proves prime geodesic theorems with symmetric error terms in length and holonomy.
result Effective equidistribution of holonomy and symmetric error terms.
Study optimizes solving fixed-point equations using subspace search.
problem Solving linear fixed point equations in Hilbert spaces.
method Linear stochastic approximation scheme with Polyak--Ruppert averaging.
result Established optimal approximation factor for temporal difference learning methods.
New LT-O-learners improve HLTE estimation with low overlap.
problem Challenges in estimating heterogeneous long-term treatment effects due to limited overlap.
method Introduces LT-O-learners that use custom overlap weights to downweight low-overlap samples.
result LT-O-learners provide robust HLTE estimates with lower variance in low-overlap regimes.
LSTM Networks accurately forecast COVID-19 cases in Turkey with lower error than other methods.
problem Forecasting total COVID-19 cases in Turkey using machine learning.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Networks for forecasting.
result LSTM Networks outperform other methods in forecasting accuracy.
TD learning reduces prediction error in Markov chain problems.
problem Estimating value functions in Markov chains with temporal inconsistency.
method Temporal difference learning minimizes temporal inconsistency between successive estimates.
result TD learning can significantly reduce mean-squared error in value estimates.
Study error bounds in evaluating distributional computational graphs.
problem Error analysis in evaluating graphs with inputs as probability distributions.
method Establish non-asymptotic error bounds using Wasserstein-1 distance.
result Non-asymptotic error bounds for discretization errors in distributional computational graphs.
Deepfake detection is formulated as a hypothesis testing problem to classify an image as genuine or GAN-generated. A robust statistics view of GANs is considered to bound the error probability for various GAN implementations in terms of their performance. The bounds are further simplified using a Euclidean approximatio…
Multiplicative noise models are often used instead of additive noise models in cases in which the noise variance depends on the state. Furthermore, when Poisson distributions with relatively small counts are approximated with normal distributions, multiplicative noise approximations are straightforward to implement. Th…
Estimates surface count with prescribed foliations.
problem Counting square-tiled surfaces with specific foliations.
method Effective estimate with power saving error term.
result Strengthens asymptotic counting formulas.
The lasso has been studied extensively as a tool for estimating the coefficient vector in the high-dimensional linear model; however, considerably less is known about estimating the error variance in this context. In this paper, we propose the natural lasso estimator for the error variance, which maximizes a penalized …
Study stability thresholds of big line bundles, proving bounds and generalizing results.
problem Stability thresholds of big line bundles and their asymptotic behavior.
method Explicit bounds on error terms, using quasi-monomial valuations to compute stability thresholds.
result Proves Jin--Rubinstein--Tian's questions affirmatively.
Estimates point counts in Teichmüller space for mapping class groups.
problem Counting points in Teichmüller space under mapping class group actions.
method Quantitative estimates with power saving error terms for Teichmüller metric balls.
result Effectivizes asymptotic counting results of Athreya et al.
We carefully study how well minimizing convex surrogate loss functions, corresponds to minimizing the misclassification error rate for the problem of binary classification with linear predictors. In particular, we show that amongst all convex surrogate losses, the hinge loss gives essentially the best possible bound, o…
The accuracy of deep learning, i.e., deep neural networks, can be characterized by dividing the total error into three main types: approximation error, optimization error, and generalization error. Whereas there are some satisfactory answers to the problems of approximation and optimization, much less is known about th…
Random forest training yields confidence intervals for generalization error.
problem Computing accurate confidence intervals for random forest generalization error.
method Directly computes confidence intervals from training data without data splitting.
result Confidence intervals have good coverage and appropriate width.
OptiNet achieves near-minimax error rates with compression in Euclidean space.
problem Error and compression rates in non-parametric multiclass classification.
method Compression-based learning rule OptiNet and a novel general compression scheme.
result OptiNet achieves non-trivial compression rates with near-minimax error rates in Euclidean space.
We consider the minimum error entropy (MEE) criterion and an empirical risk minimization learning algorithm in a regression setting. A learning theory approach is presented for this MEE algorithm and explicit error bounds are provided in terms of the approximation ability and capacity of the involved hypothesis space w…
We provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options when the underlying follows an exponential \levy dynamic. The price of the option is described by a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE). Applying a Fourier transformation to the PIDE yields an ordinary differential…
New method identifies root causes in presence of latent confounding.
problem Identifying root causes in the presence of latent variables.
method Extract Errors with Latents (EEL) procedure for inferring root causes.
result Superior accuracy and robustness compared to previous methods.
New bounds tighten the generalization error of Gibbs algorithm.
problem Bounding the generalization error of Gibbs algorithm.
method Characterization of generalization error in terms of symmetrized KL information.
result Exact characterization of Gibbs algorithm's expected generalization error.
For binary classification we establish learning rates up to the order of n−1 for support vector machines (SVMs) with hinge loss and Gaussian RBF kernels. These rates are in terms of two assumptions on the considered distributions: Tsybakov's noise assumption to establish a small estimation error, and a new geometr…
Derives EoM for DNNs to describe GD dynamics precisely.
problem Gaps between differential equations and actual DNN learning dynamics due to discretization error.
method Starts from GF, derives counter term to cancel discretization error, obtains EoM.
result EoM precisely describes GD dynamics of DNNs, highlights differences between continuous and discrete GD.
Mutual information bounds generalization error in variational classifiers.
problem Controlling overfitting in variational classifiers.
method Derive bounds on generalization error using mutual information.
result Mutual information bounds the generalization error in variational classifiers.
We design a new algorithm for the Euclidean k-means problem that operates in the local model of differential privacy. Unlike in the non-private literature, differentially private algorithms for the k-means objective incur both additive and multiplicative errors. Our algorithm significantly reduces the additive erro…
BSG learns dynamic network spillovers and uncertainty quantification.
problem Identifying indirect spillovers and systemic risk in dynamic networks.
method Bayesian Spillover Graphs using FEVD and Bayesian time series models.
result Significant performance gains over baselines in identifying source and sink nodes.
Estimates the number of closed curves on surfaces with power-saving error terms.
problem Counting closed curves on surfaces with given properties.
method Effective dynamics of mapping class group on Teichmüller space and space of closed curves, introducing novel methods.
result Proves estimates with power-saving error terms for filling closed curves and curves with respect to a current.
Adversarial training achieves optimal test error for shallow networks.
problem Achieving optimal adversarial test error for general data distributions.
method Applying new Rademacher complexity bounds and properties of optimal adversarial predictors.
result Adversarial training can achieve optimal adversarial test error for general data distributions.
We study convergence rates of variational posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We formulate general conditions on prior, likelihood, and variational class that characterize the convergence rates. Under similar "prior mass and testing" conditions considered in the literature, the rat…