Trading off exploration and exploitation in an unknown environment is key to maximising expected return during learning. A Bayes-optimal policy, which does so optimally, conditions its actions not only on the environment state but on the agent's uncertainty about the environment. Computing a Bayes-optimal policy is how…
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48 results for “Environment Uncertainty”
Sequence models quantify uncertainty over latent concepts.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in latent environments.
method Exchangeable sequence models, equivalent to empirical Bayes and posterior inference.
result Sequence prediction loss controls uncertainty quantification.
Improving Model-Based Control and Active Exploration with Reconstruction Uncertainty Optimizationcs.LG
Model based predictions of future trajectories of a dynamical system often suffer from inaccuracies, forcing model based control algorithms to re-plan often, thus being computationally expensive, suboptimal and not reliable. In this work, we propose a model agnostic method for estimating the uncertainty of a model?s pr…
Risk-averse model uncertainty framework for safe reinforcement learning.
problem Safe decision making in uncertain environments.
method Risk-averse perspective towards model uncertainty using coherent distortion risk measures; equivalent to distributionally robust safe reinforcement learning problems; efficient, model-free implementation.
result Demonstrates robust performance and safety across perturbed test environments.
Improved RL algorithm for robustness against parameter mismatches.
problem Learning robust control policies against parameter mismatches between training and testing environments.
method Formulated as DR-RL problem, proposed RPVL algorithm for tabular episodic learning with four divergences.
result Achieved sample complexity uniformly better than existing results.
Bayesian segmentation and uncertainty estimation improve 3D model accuracy for factory planning.
problem Generating accurate 3D models from outdated and incomplete 2D data.
method Bayesian neural network for point cloud segmentation and entropy-based uncertainty estimation.
result Bayesian segmentation network significantly improves model accuracy and object identification.
Learning a policy using only observational data is challenging because the distribution of states it induces at execution time may differ from the distribution observed during training. We propose to train a policy by unrolling a learned model of the environment dynamics over multiple time steps while explicitly penali…
Model-free reinforcement learning based methods such as Proximal Policy Optimization, or Q-learning typically require thousands of interactions with the environment to approximate the optimum controller which may not always be feasible in robotics due to safety and time consumption. Model-based methods such as PILCO or…
Reinforcement learning agents are faced with two types of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty stems from limited data and is useful for exploration, whereas aleatoric uncertainty arises from stochastic environments and must be accounted for in risk-sensitive applications. We highlight the challenges involved in simultan…
Algorithm integrates uncertainty for lifelong learning in dynamic environments.
problem Continuous, lifelong learning for intelligent agents in changing conditions.
method Inspired by neuromodulatory mechanisms, integrates uncertainty for self-supervised and one-shot learning.
result Stable learning without catastrophic forgetting in a virtual environment.
SAMPLR optimizes for ground truth in aleatoric parameters to avoid curriculum-induced covariate shift.
problem Curriculum learning shifts training distribution, leading to suboptimal policies in aleatoric settings.
method SAMPLR optimizes ground-truth utility function, avoiding curriculum-induced covariate shift.
result SAMPLR preserves optimality under ground-truth distribution, promoting robustness across various environments.
We can overcome uncertainty with uncertainty. Using randomness in our choices and in what we control, and hence in the decision making process, could potentially offset the uncertainty inherent in the environment and yield better outcomes. The example we develop in greater detail is the news-vendor inventory management…
Improves robust transfer learning with side information.
problem Addressing environmental shift in MDPs with side information.
method Estimate-centered uncertainty sets with side information integration.
result Improved robust policy with reduced sub-optimality gap.
New algorithm tracks deep RL value functions with uncertainty.
problem Static RL algorithms ignore uncertainty in agent-environment interactions.
method Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) algorithm using SGMCMC.
result LKTD algorithm converges to posterior distribution of deep RL parameters.
LiveTradeBench evaluates LLMs in live trading environments.
problem Static benchmarks fail to assess real-world trading ability.
method Live data streaming, portfolio management abstraction, multi-market evaluation.
result LLMs show distinct portfolio styles and adapt to live signals.
Bayesian Federated Learning improves model reliability in dynamic environments.
problem Uncertainty quantification and robust adaptation in distributed learning.
method Proposes a continual BFL framework using SGLD for sequential updates and continual learning challenges.
result Continual Bayesian updates preserve knowledge and adapt to evolving data.
A new RL model ensures safe learning in uncertain environments.
problem Safe reinforcement learning in uncertain, partially observable environments.
method Lyapunov-based uncertainty quantification and Transformers for memory.
result Significant improvement in safety and optimality in grid-world tasks.
Safe learning in uncertain systems with state measurements and optimization.
problem Safe learning in nonlinear control-affine systems with unknown additive uncertainty.
method Model uncertainty as Gaussian noise, learn mean and covariance, use optimization to adjust control input.
result Guaranteed safety with arbitrarily large probability while learning and control proceed simultaneously.
BCPO optimizes offline RL policies by converting uncertainty into conservative bounds.
problem Offline RL's fragility under distribution shifts and model errors.
method Bayesian approach with credible lower bounds and KL regularization.
result BCPO yields an uncertainty-calibrated policy that avoids exploiting model errors.
The paper tackles mean-variance analysis in Bayesian optimization under uncertainty.
problem Optimizing decisions in uncertain environments considering trade-offs between average and variance of risk.
method Developed bounds for mean and variance risk measures in Gaussian Process models and proposed AL algorithms for multi-task, multi-objective, and constrained optimization scenarios.
result Proposed AL algorithms effectively address the mean-variance trade-off in uncertain optimization scenarios.
A reinforcement learning framework combining value function and tree search planner for strategic and tactical decisions.
problem Strategic and tactical decision-making in discrete environments.
method Combines value function and tree search planner, using uncertainty modeling and risk measurement.
result Improves performance and learning speed on hard exploration environments.
Autonomous lane changing is a critical feature for advanced autonomous driving systems, that involves several challenges such as uncertainty in other driver's behaviors and the trade-off between safety and agility. In this work, we develop a novel simulation environment that emulates these challenges and train a deep r…
Efficient exploration remains a challenging problem in reinforcement learning, especially for those tasks where rewards from environments are sparse. A commonly used approach for exploring such environments is to introduce some "intrinsic" reward. In this work, we focus on model uncertainty estimation as an intrinsic r…
Unsupervised representation learning has succeeded with excellent results in many applications. It is an especially powerful tool to learn a good representation of environments with partial or noisy observations. In partially observable domains it is important for the representation to encode a belief state, a sufficie…
A simple uncertainty measure improves deep bandit performance.
problem Efficient exploration in complex environments with deep neural networks.
method Sample Average Uncertainty (SAU) for estimating outcome uncertainty directly.
result SAU matches the uncertainty of Thompson Sampling and its regret bounds.
Paper proposes a framework for reliable off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in off-policy estimates for safe deployment of target policies.
method Distributionally robust optimization for creating confidence bounds.
result Non-asymptotic and asymptotic guarantees for robust cumulative reward estimates.
New framework for robust uncertainty quantification in strategic settings.
problem Machine learning model predictions can be strategically altered by informed agents.
method Strategic Conformal Prediction framework
result Theoretical guarantees and experimental validation show remarkable effectiveness.
We integrate information-theoretic concepts into the design and analysis of optimistic algorithms and Thompson sampling. By making a connection between information-theoretic quantities and confidence bounds, we obtain results that relate the per-period performance of the agent with its information gain about the enviro…
Reinforcement-Learning based Portfolio Management with Augmented Asset Movement Prediction Statesq-fin.PM
SARL uses predicted asset movements to improve financial portfolio management.
problem Maximizing profits or minimizing risks in financial planning.
method State-Augmented RL framework that incorporates diverse asset information and price movement predictions.
result SARL outperforms existing PM approaches in terms of accumulated profits and risk-adjusted profits.
Paper introduces probabilistic digital twins for optimal decision making under uncertainty.
problem Optimal sequential decision making under incomplete and uncertain information.
method Formal definition of epistemic uncertainty using measure theory, and solution via deep reinforcement learning.
result Proposes a generic approximate solution for optimal sequential decision making.
Enhances PlaNet for better planning in uncertain environments.
problem Improving deep planning networks for partially observable environments.
method Incorporates Bayesian inference to handle uncertainty in latent models and action candidates.
result Consistently improves asymptotic performance on continuous control tasks.
New RL algorithm tackles online robust MDPs with uncertainty.
problem Developing robust reinforcement learning models for real-world environments.
method Proposes a robust optimistic policy optimization algorithm for online robust MDPs.
result Establishes the first regret bound for online robust MDPs.
Bayesian framework improves uncertainty estimates under covariate shifts.
problem Neural networks' unreliable uncertainty estimates under covariate shifts.
method Adaptive prior conditioned on training and new covariates, amortized variational inference.
result Significantly improved uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.
Ultrasonic guided waves are commonly used to localize structural damage in infrastructures such as buildings, airplanes, bridges. Damage localization can be viewed as an inverse problem. Physical model based techniques are popular for guided wave based damage localization. The performance of these techniques depend on …
Before deploying autonomous agents in the real world, we need to be confident they will perform safely in novel situations. Ideally, we would expose agents to a very wide range of situations during training, allowing them to learn about every possible danger, but this is often impractical. This paper investigates safet…
Sample-Efficient Robust Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning in the Face of Environmental Uncertaintycs.LG
This work tackles robust RL in multi-agent settings, improving sample efficiency.
problem Overcoming environmental uncertainties in multi-agent reinforcement learning.
method Proposes DRNVI, a sample-efficient algorithm for learning robust equilibria in RMGs.
result Establishes near-optimal sample complexity for solving RMGs.
UTE improves reinforcement learning by measuring action uncertainty, enhancing policy learning efficiency.
problem Degrading performance of action repetition in reinforcement learning, especially with sub-optimal actions.
method UTE uses ensemble methods to measure uncertainty during action extension, allowing strategic exploration or certainty.
result UTE outperforms existing action repetition algorithms, significantly enhancing policy learning efficiency.
Efficient transfer learning and online adaptation with latent variable models for continuous controlcs.LG
Traditional model-based RL relies on hand-specified or learned models of transition dynamics of the environment. These methods are sample efficient and facilitate learning in the real world but fail to generalize to subtle variations in the underlying dynamics, e.g., due to differences in mass, friction, or actuators a…
Paper tackles robust reinforcement learning with minimal data.
problem Learning robust policies from limited data in uncertain environments.
method Distributionally robust formulation, model-based algorithm combining value iteration and pessimism.
result Proves near-optimal sample complexity for robust offline RL.
New algorithms reduce dynamic regret in non-stationary RL environments.
problem Optimizing policies in environments that change over time.
method POWER and POWER++ algorithms for policy optimization with dynamic regret analysis.
result POWER++ improves dynamic regret by actively adapting to non-stationarity.
A neurally plausible model learns successor representations in partially observable environmentsstat.ML
Animals need to devise strategies to maximize returns while interacting with their environment based on incoming noisy sensory observations. Task-relevant states, such as the agent's location within an environment or the presence of a predator, are often not directly observable but must be inferred using available sens…
In the edge computing paradigm, mobile devices offload the computational tasks to an edge server by routing the required data over the wireless network. The full potential of edge computing becomes realized only if a smart device selects the most appropriate server in terms of the latency and energy consumption, among …
We consider an agent's uncertainty about its environment and the problem of generalizing this uncertainty across observations. Specifically, we focus on the problem of exploration in non-tabular reinforcement learning. Drawing inspiration from the intrinsic motivation literature, we use density models to measure uncert…
For mobile robots to operate autonomously in general environments, perception is required in the form of a dense metric map. For this purpose, we present the stochastic triangular mesh (STM) mapping technique: a 2.5-D representation of the surface of the environment using a continuous mesh of triangular surface element…
Selective planning with imperfect models reduces harmful effects of model inadequacy.
problem Harmful effects of using an imperfect model in reinforcement learning.
method Selective planning with heteroscedastic regression to estimate predictive uncertainty from model inadequacy.
result Effective selective planning requires considering both parameter uncertainty and model inadequacy.
A Robust Markov Decision Process (RMDP) is a sequential decision making model that accounts for uncertainty in the parameters of dynamic systems. This uncertainty introduces difficulties in learning an optimal policy, especially for environments with large state spaces. We propose two algorithms, RTD-DQN and Deep-RoK, …
This research tackles balancing exploration and exploitation in deep RL for partially observable systems.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in deep RL for partially observable systems.
method Deployed and tested several techniques including adaptive and deterministic exploration strategies, and a modified quadratic loss function.
result Adaptive methods better approximate the trade-off between exploration and exploitation.
Trust Issues: Uncertainty Estimation Does Not Enable Reliable OOD Detection On Medical Tabular Datacs.LG
New research finds uncertainty estimation techniques fail to reliably detect abnormal medical cases.
problem Uncertainty estimation does not reliably detect out-of-distribution patients in medical tabular data.
method A series of tests on various uncertainty estimation techniques on real-world medical data.
result Almost all techniques fail to identify out-of-distribution patients, contradicting earlier findings.