Graph neural networks improve SME credit risk assessment.
problem Improving credit risk assessment for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
method Graph neural networks were used to model the relationships between financial indicators of enterprises, creating a graph structure and embedding representations for credit risk prediction.
result The proposed model accurately predicts enterprise credit levels, demonstrating robustness and effectiveness.
Paper proposes a method to evaluate SME credit risk using meta paths.
problem Evaluate credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises with limited data.
method Exploits the representative power of information networks and meta paths to infer SME financial status.
result Meta path feature effectively identifies SMEs with credit risks.
The basic financial purpose of an enterprise is maximization of its value. Trade credit management should also contribute to realization of this fundamental aim. Many of the current asset management models that are found in financial management literature assume book profit maximization as the basic financial purpose. …
We present a macroeconomic agent-based model that combines several mechanisms operating at the same timescale, while remaining mathematically tractable. It comprises enterprises and workers who compete in a job market and a commodity goods market. The model is stock-flow consistent; a bank lends money charging interest…
Meta-learning framework for credit risk assessment of SMEs, aligning financial statement dates with evaluation dates.
problem Temporal misalignment of credit scoring models leading to bias and inconsistent predictions.
method Two-step temporal decomposition: static model for annual PDs, dynamic model for monthly PDs; stacking architecture to aggregate multiple models.
result Framework effectively captures credit risk evolution over time, improving temporal consistency and predictive stability.
A scalable model estimates revenue uncertainty for SMEs.
problem Estimating revenue uncertainty for SMEs to manage credit limits.
method Scalable Natural Gradient Boosting Machines.
result The method distinguishes accurate from inaccurate revenue forecasts.
Small Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) face many obstacles when they try to access credit market. These obstacles are increased if the SMEs are innovative. In this case, financial data are insufficient or even not reliable. Thus, when building a judgemental rating model, mainly based on qualitative criteria (soft inform…
This paper develops a machine learning model to assess credit risk in UAE commercial banks.
problem Lack of precision in conventional credit rating tools for accurate credit risk prediction.
method Constructs a credit risk assessment model using Linear Discriminant Analysis.
result Demonstrates improved accuracy in predicting good and bad creditors compared to conventional methods.
This paper surveys enterprise financial risk analysis from Big Data and LLMs perspectives.
problem Predicting future financial risk of enterprises.
method Systematic literature review of enterprise financial risk analysis approaches from Big Data and LLMs perspectives.
result Offers a holistic synthesis of research methods and key insights.
Study examines factors influencing lending to SMEs by Kenyan banks.
problem Lack of creditworthiness makes SMEs difficult to finance by banks.
method Descriptive research design, census of 43 banks, secondary data analysis.
result Bank size and liquidity significantly influence lending to SMEs, while credit risk and interest rates do not.
Credit expansion led to stronger household leverage cycles during the U.S. business cycle.
problem Understanding the role of credit supply in the U.S. business cycle.
method Causal evidence from 1999-2010 U.S. business cycle data.
result Credit expansion, particularly in private-label mortgages, caused stronger household leverage cycles.
For researching the association between coal enterprise management and return in financial market, this paper applies the method of time difference relevance and PageRank method to seek the leader-index of a stock set containing 21 coal enterprises in A-share market and score those stocks. Based on the return in 2011, …
Unified theory explains housing cycle across metros, showing credit expansion impacts.
problem Puzzling correlations between income and mortgage growth across ZIP codes and metros.
method Unified credit expansion theory, double differences, instrumental variables.
result Credit expansion drives housing cycle, affecting boom, bust, and recovery phases.
Study integrates climate and text data to improve credit default prediction.
problem Improving credit risk assessment for mSEs with limited financial histories.
method Multimodal framework using LSTM, GRU, and transformer models.
result Integration of multiple data modalities improves credit default prediction.
AI improves MSME credit scoring using bank statement data.
problem Lack of access to financing for MSMEs due to traditional credit scoring methods.
method Developed a cash flow-based pipeline using bank statement data for machine learning credit scoring.
result Bank statement features significantly improve credit scoring models, achieving AUROC of 0.806.
Proposes a novel model for healthcare and SME credit risk prediction.
problem Lack of guidance from global view in sequence representation learning for time series modeling.
method Hierarchical Global View-guided (HGV) sequence representation learning framework with GGE and β-Attn modules. result Competitive prediction performance compared with other known baselines.
Networked-guarantee loans may cause the systemic risk related concern of the government and banks in China. The prediction of default of enterprise loans is a typical extremely imbalanced prediction problem, and the networked-guarantee make this problem more difficult to solve. Since the guaranteed loan is a debt oblig…
This paper uses graph neural networks to predict SME default risk using transaction and ownership networks.
problem Predicting credit risk for SMEs facing limited financial histories and collateral constraints.
method Graph Neural Networks applied to multilayer network data of SME transactions and ownership.
result Combining network data with traditional data improves credit scoring and models contagion risk.
Derives metrics for DeFi vaults, addressing credit risk.
problem Credit risk in DeFi lending vaults.
method Three-level decomposition of vault risk; six structural features identified.
result Estimation architecture for credit risk metrics.
This study proposes a new model for predicting financial distress in SMEs using machine learning.
problem Challenges in predicting financial distress for SMEs due to ambiguity and limited data.
method Feature selection algorithm based on element credits and data source collection. Incorporates financial statements, governance qualities, and market data with a Relevant Vector Machine.
result The proposed model improves financial distress prediction efficiency with fewer characteristic factors.
AI random forest model improves credit risk scoring for Azerbaijani SMEs.
problem Improving accuracy in identifying defaulters for SME loans.
method Used Python to compare a Delphi model with a random forest model, measuring accuracy, precision, recall, and F-1 scores.
result Significant improvements in model performance (e.g., from 0.69 to 0.83 in accuracy).
This study identifies financial risk paths in digital-transformed enterprises.
problem Identifying financial risks in digital-transformed enterprises.
method DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC method.
result Political and economic environment affects enterprise's financial structure.
It was not until the beginning of the 1990s that the effects of information and communication technology on economic growth as well as on the profitability of enterprises raised the interest of researchers. After giving a general description on the relationship between a more intense use of ICT devices and dynamic econ…
Assessment of risk levels for existing credit accounts is important to the implementation of bank policies and offering financial products. This paper uses cluster analysis of behaviour of credit card accounts to help assess credit risk level. Account behaviour is modelled parametrically and we then implement the behav…
Model assesses loan profitability under changing credit conditions.
problem Financial institutions face risks of default and prepayment.
method Develops a Random Net Present Value (RNPV) model to evaluate profitability.
result Mean and variance of RNPV calculated at individual and portfolio levels.
Paper uses ML to predict SME defaults with interpretability.
problem Lack of interpretability in ML models for SME default prediction.
method Model-agnostic approach using Accumulated Local Effects and Shapley values.
result eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm provides highest classification power with interpretability.
Digital transformation boosts corporate financial asset allocation, especially short-term.
problem Understanding how digital transformation affects corporate financial decisions.
method Fixed-effects models and staggered DID design using A-share listed companies data.
result Digital transformation significantly promotes corporate financial asset allocation, more pronounced in short-term.
Study combines intra-risk and contagion risk for SME bankruptcy prediction.
problem Predicting bankruptcy risk of SMEs considering both intra-risk and contagion risk.
method Proposes a novel model using Graph Neural Networks to combine intra-risk and contagion risk.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in bankruptcy prediction.
Interbank lending and borrowing occur when financial institutions seek to settle and refinance their mutual positions over time and circumstances. This interactive process involves money creation at the aggregate level. Coordination mismatch on interbank credit may trigger systemic crises. This happened when, since sum…
Financial potential is an important part of enterprise activities. The technique of the enterprise's financial potential assessment is offered in the paper. It is presented by particular stages, where each stage is related to a certain task. The characteristics of the company's financial potential, based on the analysi…
The existence of asymmetric information has always been a major concern for financial institutions. Financial intermediaries such as commercial banks need to study the quality of potential borrowers in order to make their decision on corporate loans. Classical methods model the default probability by financial ratios u…
Study evaluates SHAP for credit card default model consistency.
problem Model transparency and fairness in credit card default prediction models.
method Evaluates SHAP stability in credit card default prediction models via a case study.
result SHAP consistency is related to variable importance level.
We propose a diffusion process to describe the global dynamic evolution of credit operations at a national level given observed operations at a subnational level in a sovereign country. Empirical analysis with a unique dataset from Brazilian federate constituents supports the conclusions. Despite the heterogeneity obse…
Extracts credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
problem Investors do not fully internalize credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
method Develops a novel technique to extract credit-relevant information from earnings call text.
result The extracted information forecasts future credit spread changes and firm profitability.
Study shows how macroprudential policies affect credit growth in Israel, especially in housing and business sectors.
problem Impact of macroprudential policies on credit growth in Israel.
method Bank-level panel data analysis for Israel, 2004-2019; interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies.
result Accommodative monetary policy interacts with macroprudential policies to increase total credit growth.
Margin trading and short selling boost green tech innovation in China.
problem Encouraging green technology innovation in Chinese companies.
method Quasi-experimental research using panel data of Chinese listed companies, double difference model.
result Margin trading and short selling increase green tech innovation significantly.
In the second part of our series we suggest new definitions of credit bond duration and convexity that remain consistent across all levels of credit quality including deeply distressed bonds and introduce additional risk measures that are consistent with the survival-based valuation framework. We then show how to use t…
Productivity and credit limits affect aggregate production in non-monotonic ways.
problem Understanding how aggregate production is influenced by individual characteristics and financial constraints.
method Analytical proof of non-monotonic effects of productivity and credit limits on aggregate production in a general equilibrium model.
result Equilibrium aggregate production can be non-monotonic in both individual productivity and credit limit.
This article presents a generic model for pricing financial derivatives subject to counterparty credit risk. Both unilateral and bilateral types of credit risks are considered. Our study shows that credit risk should be modeled as American style options in most cases, which require a backward induction valuation. To co…
The paper analyzes XVA reduction strategies in financial crises using Mandatory Breaks, Restructuring, and Resets.
problem Challenges in client XVA management during crises when continuous collateralization is not feasible.
method Compares multiple trade strategies including Mandatory Breaks, Restructuring, and Resets.
result Resets can be twice as effective as Mandatory Breaks/Restructuring if there is no credit recovery. When recovery is at least 1/3, Mandatory Breaks/Restructuring can be more effective.
Study reveals holiday effect on China's time-honored brands, especially alcoholic beverages.
problem Understanding holiday impact on China's time-honored brands.
method Event study using listed companies of China's time-honored brands from 2012-2021.
result Time-honored brand stocks show significant post-holiday effect during Chinese New Year, alcoholic beverages more sensitive.
Study optimizes classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
problem Optimizing classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
method Three distinct models: response, risk, and response-risk. Optimized various performance metrics.
result Random Forest classifier achieves highest accuracy (83.2%) in multi-class response-risk model.
With negative growth in real production in many countries and debt levels which become an increasing burden on developed societies, the calls for a change in economic policy and even the monetary system become louder and increasingly impatient. We research the consequences of a system of credit and debt, that still all…
SmallML predicts customer churn for SMEs with small data, improving accuracy by 24.2 points.
problem AI exclusion of SMEs due to data scale mismatch.
method Bayesian transfer learning with hierarchical pooling and conformal prediction.
result 96.7% AUC on 100 obs SMEs, 24.2 point improvement over logistic regression.
Paper proposes HIDAM model to improve MSE default risk assessment using heterogeneous information networks.
problem Default risk assessment for MSEs due to lack of credit information and diverse financial activities.
method HIDAM model incorporating heterogeneous information networks with multi-typed nodes and links, extracting interactive information through meta-paths, and using a hierarchical attention mechanism.
result HIDAM model outperforms state-of-the-art competitors on real-world banking data.
A new method to protect enterprise data privacy in AI models.
problem Enterprise data leakage risks in AI models.
method ABack, a training-free mechanism using Hidden State Model.
result Improves privacy utility by up to 15% over strong baselines.
The study examines how class imbalance impacts logistic regression models in low-default credit portfolios.
problem The impact of class imbalance on logistic regression models in low-default credit portfolios.
method Simulation study with controlled data-generating mechanisms to vary class imbalance and predictor-response association strength.
result Classification accuracy decreases significantly as event rate decreases, and optimal cut-off shifts with imbalance.
CCR-CNN uses CNN to predict corporate credit ratings from financial data.
problem Lack of data and limited model performance in predicting corporate credit ratings.
method Transform corporations into images and use CNN to analyze complex feature interactions.
result CCR-CNN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting corporate credit ratings.