Examines optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes, finding risk seeking in certain subdomains.
problem Optimal risk sharing with empirically realistic risk attitudes.
method Allows for risk-seeking agents, generalizes expected utility, and uses counter-monotonic improvement theorem.
result First empirical results on optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes.
The landscape of empirical risk has been widely studied in a series of machine learning problems, including low-rank matrix factorization, matrix sensing, matrix completion, and phase retrieval. In this work, we focus on the situation where the corresponding population risk is a degenerate non-convex loss function, nam…
The paper examines the tilted empirical risk's generalization and robustness under negative tilt.
problem The generalization error of machine learning algorithms under negative tilt.
method Uniform and information-theoretic bounds on the tilted generalization error under negative tilt.
result The tilted empirical risk's generalization error has a convergence rate of \(O(n^{-ε/(1+ε)})\).
The paper analyzes the performance of empirical risk minimization for p-norm linear regression.
problem Empirical risk minimization on p-norm linear regression. method Analyzes performance under various conditions and moment assumptions.
result High probability excess risk bounds for empirical risk minimizer, matching asymptotic rates.
New method improves model risk prediction using cross-audit projection.
problem Over-optimism in K-fold CV for binary classification. method Cross-audit projection (CAP) procedure combining resampling and asymptotic bias correction.
result CAP estimator achieves second-order asymptotic unbiasedness.
New approach avoids excess empirical risk in domain generalization.
problem Learning models that generalize to unseen distributions from diverse data sets.
method Minimizes penalty under constraint of optimal empirical risk, leveraging rate-distortion theory.
result Significant improvements in domain generalization performance across multiple methods.
We discuss the problem of risk estimation in the classification problem, with specific focus on finding distributions that maximize the confidence intervals of risk estimation. We derived simple analytic approximations for the maximum bias of empirical risk for histogram classifier. We carry out a detailed study on usi…
Paper tackles heavy-tailed data without finite variance, proposing robust risk minimization.
problem Empirical risk minimization under heavy-tailed data with finite p-th moment. method Minimizes risk values robustly estimated via Catoni's method, using generalized generic chaining.
result Shows better performance of optimizer based on empirical risks via Catoni-style estimation.
A new framework tightens risk measure confidence bounds.
problem Improving confidence bounds for various risk measures.
method Distribution optimization framework with two estimation schemes based on concentration bounds.
result Consistently tighter confidence bounds compared to previous methods.
Prove non-asymptotic bounds for minimal risk in statistical learning
problem Estimating minimal risk in statistical learning
method Using concentration inequalities
result Non-asymptotic bounds for minimal risk
Most high-dimensional estimation and prediction methods propose to minimize a cost function (empirical risk) that is written as a sum of losses associated to each data point. In this paper we focus on the case of non-convex losses, which is practically important but still poorly understood. Classical empirical process …
Paper analyzes time series prediction using empirical risk minimization.
problem Optimizing 1-step-ahead prediction for time series.
method Empirical risk minimization applied to recursive algorithms for time series forecasting.
result Empirical risk minimization achieves optimal predictive performance.
Improved sample complexity for diffusion models without needing empirical risk minimizers.
problem Theoretical limitations in sample complexity for diffusion models.
method Structured decomposition of score estimation error, eliminating dependence on neural network parameters.
result Achieved sample complexity bound of O(ε^(-4)) without empirical risk minimizer access.
A new method sorts models to find the best one with minimal risk.
problem Finding the best model with minimal risk among nested models.
method Nested Empirical Risk (NER) and Sorted NER (S-NER) methods.
result The S-NER method selects the true model order and the most parsimonious model.
New method estimates Schrödinger bridge potentials via empirical risk minimization.
problem Estimating Schrödinger bridge potentials from samples.
method Rewriting Schrödinger system as a fixed-point equation and estimating the potential via empirical risk minimization.
result Uniform concentration of empirical risk around population counterpart under sub-Gaussian assumptions.
According to theoretical models of valuing risky corporate securities, risk of default is primary component in overall yield spread. However, sizable empirical literature considers it otherwise by giving more importance to non-default risk factors. Current study empirically attempts to provide relative solution to this…
This paper reformulates systemic risk measures and finds new properties and estimators.
problem Understanding and measuring systemic risk in financial networks.
method Representation of systemic risk measures in terms of univariate risk measures and quantiles determined by copulas. Empirical properties and estimators derived.
result MES is not suitable for measuring extreme risks. ES-based measures are more sensitive to power-law tails and large losses.
Empirical evidence supports new financial market definitions.
problem Investor risk attitudes in financial markets.
method Developed a new method to analyze risk attitudes.
result Risk-averse behavior in equity investors, risk-loving behavior in risk-free asset investors.
Improves Bayesian predictive performance in misspecified models.
problem Misspecification gap between inferential and predictive risks.
method Develops a multi-sample loss (PACm) to bridge the gap. result Empirical study shows improved predictive distribution.
New learning algorithm for real analytic functions without gradient descent.
problem Learning real analytic functions without gradient descent.
method Taylor approximation and sampling data distribution.
result Nonuniform learning result for real analytic functions.
Paper shows robust estimators converge to true risk minimizers at optimal rates.
problem Understanding asymptotic properties of robust risk minimizers.
method Investigates robust analogues of empirical risk minimization, focusing on median of means estimator.
result Robust minimizers converge to true minimizers at optimal rates and have similar asymptotic variance.
This paper studies the landscape of empirical risk of deep neural networks by theoretically analyzing its convergence behavior to the population risk as well as its stationary points and properties. For an l-layer linear neural network, we prove its empirical risk uniformly converges to its population risk at the rat…
New regularization method reduces support of empirical risk minimization solutions.
problem Regularization in empirical risk minimization with relative entropy.
method Introduces Type-II regularization, characterizes solutions, analyzes properties of relative entropy.
result Type-II regularization collapses solution support into reference measure's support.
Reweighting improves risk bounds in certain data regions.
problem Improving risk bounds in classification and heteroscedastic regression.
method Weighted empirical risk minimization with a data-dependent weight function.
result A weighted ERM estimator can achieve superior performance in specific sub-regions.
The recently proposed unlabeled-unlabeled (UU) classification method allows us to train a binary classifier only from two unlabeled datasets with different class priors. Since this method is based on the empirical risk minimization, it works as if it is a supervised classification method, compatible with any model and …
A new DP algorithm for weighted ERM protects sensitive data in predictive models.
problem Protecting sensitive personal information in predictive models trained via ERM.
method Proposes the first differentially private algorithm for weighted ERM with formal privacy guarantees.
result Demonstrates strong DP guarantees while maintaining robust performance in real-world data.
New algorithms avoid non-monotonic risk curves in statistical learning.
problem Non-monotonic behavior of risk curves in statistical learning.
method Derive risk-monotonic algorithms under weak assumptions.
result Risk monotonicity does not necessarily lead to worse excess risk rates.
The paper improves semi-supervised learning using f-divergences and α-Rényi divergences.
problem Improving semi-supervised learning with noisy pseudo-labels.
method Inspired by f-divergences and α-Rényi divergences, the paper develops new empirical risk functions and regularization techniques. result The new methods show better performance than traditional self-training methods, especially in noisy pseudo-label scenarios.
Extended univariate Range Value-at-Risk to multivariate settings.
problem Inability of traditional risk measures for heavy-tail distributions and infinite tail expectations.
method Multivariate definitions of robust truncated tail expectations, robustness and properties derived, closed-form expressions and special cases discussed.
result Empirical estimators accuracy examined through numerical and graphical examples.
This paper presents a unified approach based on Wasserstein distance to derive concentration bounds for empirical estimates for two broad classes of risk measures defined in the paper. The classes of risk measures introduced include as special cases well known risk measures from the finance literature such as condition…
The paper studies risk-sensitive learning schemes and provides learning bounds for empirical OCE minimizers.
problem Risk-sensitive learning aims to minimize risk-averse measures of loss.
method Proposes learning bounds for empirical OCE minimizers based on Rademacher average and variance.
result Provides two learning bounds on the performance of empirical OCE minimizers.
We study the rates of convergence from empirical surrogate risk minimizers to the Bayes optimal classifier. Specifically, we introduce the notion of \emph{consistency intensity} to characterize a surrogate loss function and exploit this notion to obtain the rate of convergence from an empirical surrogate risk minimizer…
Deep neural network with l_1-regularization achieves nearly optimal risk bounds.
problem Achieving optimal risk bounds in deep learning.
method Empirical risk minimization with l_1-regularization.
result Adaptively nearly-minimax risk bound across various function classes.
Paper presents ERM with f-divergence regularization and its properties.
problem Minimizing empirical risk with f-divergence constraints. method Introduces normalization function and solves ERM-fDR via ODE. result Characterizes difference between empirical risks and provides numerical algorithm.
We study the Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) algorithm for non-convex optimization. The algorithm performs stochastic gradient descent, where in each step it injects appropriately scaled Gaussian noise to the update. We analyze the algorithm's hitting time to an arbitrary subset of the parameter space. Two…
The study reveals traders' risk aversion and a new risk premium from market volumes.
problem Understanding traders' rationality and risk aversion from market volumes.
method Optimal Merton dynamics model to estimate average risk aversion and price of risk.
result Validation of the proposed trading strategy model on real data.
ERM with f-divergence regularization yields unique solution.
problem Optimizing empirical risk with f-divergence. method Mild conditions on f lead to unique optimal measure. result Equivalence of ERM-fDR to different f-divergence regularization. Noise-ignorant empirical risk minimization achieves state-of-the-art performance on noisy data.
problem Learning with noisy labels in multi-class classification problems.
method Introducing relative signal strength (RSS) to quantify transferability and applying Noise Ignorant Empirical Risk Minimization (NI-ERM).
result NI-ERM achieves state-of-the-art performance on CIFAR-N data challenge.
STORM enables edge computing for empirical risk minimization.
problem Training models on edge devices for streaming data.
method Online sketching for empirical risk minimization.
result STORM can estimate least-squares objective accurately.
We show that model compression can improve the population risk of a pre-trained model, by studying the tradeoff between the decrease in the generalization error and the increase in the empirical risk with model compression. We first prove that model compression reduces an information-theoretic bound on the generalizati…
We give improved constants for data dependent and variance sensitive confidence bounds, called empirical Bernstein bounds, and extend these inequalities to hold uniformly over classes of functionswhose growth function is polynomial in the sample size n. The bounds lead us to consider sample variance penalization, a nov…
Paper develops a risk scoring framework for tokenized RWA markets.
problem Tokenized assets may not reflect true risk due to illiquidity and concentration.
method Develops a risk scoring framework based on observable indicators.
result Assets with limited transfer activity and concentrated ownership have high empirical risk.
Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. The paper demonstrates the general point for cost and demand risks in urban rail projec…
This paper investigates robust versions of the general empirical risk minimization algorithm, one of the core techniques underlying modern statistical methods. Success of the empirical risk minimization is based on the fact that for a "well-behaved" stochastic process {f(X), f∈F} indexed b…
Empirical risk minimization is the main tool for prediction problems, but its extension to relational data remains unsolved. We solve this problem using recent ideas from graph sampling theory to (i) define an empirical risk for relational data and (ii) obtain stochastic gradients for this empirical risk that are autom…
Population risk is always of primary interest in machine learning; however, learning algorithms only have access to the empirical risk. Even for applications with nonconvex nonsmooth losses (such as modern deep networks), the population risk is generally significantly more well-behaved from an optimization point of vie…
Covariance shrinkage via stochastic interpolation
problem High-dimensional covariance estimation
method Recasting shrinkage as empirical risk minimization
result Reduces statistical risk through scheduling, flow maps, and early stopping
Study finds cryptoasset markets inefficient due to capital reallocation frictions.
problem Inefficiency in cryptoasset markets due to capital reallocation frictions.
method Examined investments with dominant and secondary risk factors, derived equilibrium restrictions, and tested empirically.
result Empirical results strongly reject necessary equilibrium restrictions, indicating market inefficiency.