We prove that Pareto theory of circulation of elites results from our wealth evolution model, Kelly criterion for optimal betting and Keynes' observation of "animal spirits" that drive the economy and cause that human financial decisions are prone to excess risk-taking.
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48 results for “Elite Observations”
EDSVM uses elite observations to guide SVM classification.
problem Classical SVMs lack ways to encode trusted models or preferences.
method EDSVM augments SVMs by guiding slack variables for elite observations.
result EDSVM models closely track reference SVMs while achieving competitive performance.
BOP-Elites uses Bayesian Optimisation for QD search, improving efficiency and insight.
problem Finding diverse high-performing points from an objective function.
method Bayesian Optimisation and Gaussian Processes to model quality and diversity.
result Significantly more sample efficient and better at identifying niche solutions.
Data-driven topology design using a deep generative modelphysics.comp-ph
Paper proposes a new method for designing materials using deep learning.
problem Designing high-performance material distributions from given distributions.
method Iterative process of selecting, generating, and merging material distributions using a deep generative model.
result The method improves material performance through iterative refinement.
Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) on Markov decision processes (MDPs) with continuous action spaces is often approached by directly training parametric policies along the direction of estimated policy gradients (PGs). Previous research revealed that the performance of these PG algorithms depends heavily on the bias-var…
We focus on the challenge of finding a diverse collection of quality solutions on complex continuous domains. While quality diver-sity (QD) algorithms like Novelty Search with Local Competition (NSLC) and MAP-Elites are designed to generate a diverse range of solutions, these algorithms require a large number of evalua…
MAP-Elites generates diverse trading strategies for improved execution performance.
problem Optimizing trading execution schedules in volatile market conditions.
method Quality-diversity algorithm (MAP-Elites) generating a portfolio of specialized strategies.
result Diverse strategies achieve 8-10% performance improvements, validating quality-diversity methods.
The MAP-Elites algorithm produces a set of high-performing solutions that vary according to features defined by the user. This technique has the potential to be a powerful tool for design space exploration, but is limited by the need for numerous evaluations. The Surrogate-Assisted Illumination algorithm (SAIL), introd…
The study examines dataset usage patterns in machine learning research.
problem Lack of attention to dataset dynamics in machine learning research.
method Analysis of dataset usage patterns across machine learning subcommunities and time periods (2015-2020).
result Increasing concentration on fewer and fewer datasets, significant adoption from other tasks, and concentration across the field on datasets introduced by elite institutions.
Elite ONNs learn better with synaptic plasticity, improving performance over CNNs.
problem Limited heterogeneity in ONNs due to fixed operator sets.
method Synaptic plasticity-based search for optimal operator sets.
result Elite ONNs achieve superior learning performance compared to conventional methods.
A new method finds diverse near-optimal portfolios using quality-diversity.
problem Optimizing financial portfolios with robustness to input parameter uncertainties.
method Quality-Diversity (QD) optimization using CVT-MAP-Elites algorithm.
result Diverse set of near-optimal portfolios identified.
Design optimization techniques are often used at the beginning of the design process to explore the space of possible designs. In these domains illumination algorithms, such as MAP-Elites, are promising alternatives to classic optimization algorithms because they produce diverse, high-quality solutions in a single run,…
Securities markets are quintessential complex adaptive systems in which heterogeneous agents compete in an attempt to maximize returns. Species of trading agents are also subject to evolutionary pressure as entire classes of strategies become obsolete and new classes emerge. Using an agent-based model of interacting he…
To investigate whether training load monitoring data could be used to predict injuries in elite Australian football players, data were collected from elite athletes over 3 seasons at an Australian football club. Loads were quantified using GPS devices, accelerometers and player perceived exertion ratings. Absolute and …
Professional sports are developing towards increasingly scientific training methods with increasing amounts of data being collected from laboratory tests, training sessions and competitions. In cycling, it is standard to equip bicycles with small computers recording data from sensors such as power-meters, in addition t…
The study uses unsupervised machine learning to identify top European football teams.
problem Selecting teams for the new European football Super League.
method Used Laplacian eigenmaps clustering on performance data.
result Successfully identified four clusters of teams based on performance metrics.
Study uncovers tactical line-breaking passes in football using clustering.
problem Detecting and analyzing line-breaking passes in football matches.
method Unsupervised clustering-based framework using event and tracking data.
result Introduced tactical metrics to quantify pass effectiveness.
This paper applies knot theory to modern yo-yo play.
problem No systematic knot-theoretic treatment of contemporary yo-yo play.
method Recalled fundamental knot theory results and developed a methodology for classifying string arrangements (mounts).
result Classified a range of mounts and identified corresponding yo-yo maneuvers.
Although many successful ensemble clustering approaches have been developed in recent years, there are still two limitations to most of the existing approaches. First, they mostly overlook the issue of uncertain links, which may mislead the overall consensus process. Second, they generally lack the ability to incorpora…
Proposes Genetic Thompson Sampling for multi-armed bandits, improving performance in nonstationary settings.
problem Improving sequential decision making tasks of online learning agents using multi-armed bandits.
method Integrates genetic principles into Thompson Sampling for multi-armed bandits.
result Significantly outperforms baselines in nonstationary settings.
In this paper, we develop a convolutional neural network model to predict the mechanical properties of a two-dimensional checkerboard composite quantitatively. The checkerboard composite possesses two phases, one phase is soft and ductile while the other is stiff and brittle. The ground-truth data used in the training …
Lactate threshold is considered an essential parameter when assessing performance of elite and recreational runners and prescribing training intensities in endurance sports. However, the measurement of blood lactate concentration requires expensive equipment and the extraction of blood samples, which are inconvenient f…
Master-slave architecture tackles combinatorial multi-armed bandits with diversity constraints.
problem Solving top- combinatorial multi-armed bandits with non-linear feedback and diversity constraints.
method Master-slave architecture with six slave models, teacher learning, and policy co-training.
result Significantly outperforms existing algorithms in synthetic and real datasets.
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
problem The role of prediction markets beyond forecasting.
method Transaction-level evidence from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Signal Credibility Index (SCI).
result Price signals in prediction markets are more influential due to persistence, breadth of trader types, and cross-platform consensus.
Ordinal Regression with Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics: A Case Study of an Orienteering Racestat.AP
A new model predicts race places using changeover-times and log-normal distributions.
problem Predicting race places in orienteering races.
method Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model based on log-normal leg-times and changeover-times.
result The model accurately predicts race places with smaller root-mean-square-errors.
Paper identifies unobserved variables from observable data.
problem Missing variables in empirical studies.
method Function mapping from observables to unobservables based on joint distribution.
result Uniqueness of latent values in each observation.
New framework learns policies for partially observable systems.
problem Learning policies in partially observable dynamical systems.
method Partially Observable Bilinear Actor-Critic framework.
result Algorithm can learn against optimal policies in certain cases.
Efficient RL in partially observable risk-sensitive environments with hindsight observations.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in partially observable environments.
method Integrates hindsight observations into POMDP framework, develops novel RL algorithm.
result Achieves polynomial regret with provable efficiency, outperforming existing methods.
We consider the problem of diagnosis where a set of simple observations are used to infer a potentially complex hidden hypothesis. Finding the optimal subset of observations is intractable in general, thus we focus on the problem of active diagnosis, where the agent selects the next most-informative observation based o…
The `observer space' of a Lorentzian spacetime is the space of future-timelike unit tangent vectors. Using Cartan geometry, we first study the structure a given spacetime induces on its observer space, then use this to define abstract observer space geometries for which no underlying spacetime is assumed. We propose ta…
A method uses CG to create efficient channels for ideal observers.
problem Computational intractability of ideal observers for high-dimensional image data.
method Conjugate gradient (CG) method for constructing efficient channels.
result CG-based channels approximate IO and HO performance efficiently.
Extends PD-NJ-ODE to noisy observations and dependent observation times.
problem Predicting continuous-time stochastic processes with irregular and noisy observations.
method Extends PD-NJ-ODE to handle conditional independence and noisy observations.
result Theoretical guarantees and empirical examples for handling noisy observations and dependent observation times.
Uncorrelated optical space observation association represents a classic needle in a haystack problem. The objective being to find small groups of observations that are likely of the same resident space objects (RSOs) from amongst the much larger population of all uncorrelated observations. These observations being pote…
The paper analyzes the stability of an observer error in a vibrating string system.
problem Stability analysis of observer error in a vibrating string system.
method Abstract Cauchy problem reformulation and application of LaSalle's invariance principle for infinite-dimensional systems.
result The observer error is asymptotically stable.
New algorithm for aggregate inference in HMMs with continuous observations.
problem Inference in large populations with indistinguishable individuals and continuous measurements.
method Continuous observation collective forward-backward algorithm extending existing discrete case algorithm.
result Efficacy demonstrated through numerical experiments.
The paper compares and optimizes estimators for treatment effects with observed confounders and mediators.
problem Estimating treatment effects with observed confounders and mediators.
method Investigates the linear Gaussian causal model, compares and optimizes estimators, and combines datasets.
result An optimal estimator outperforms the backdoor and frontdoor estimators by an unbounded constant factor.
New algorithm improves reinforcement learning from partial observations.
problem Inferior performance of algorithms in real-world reinforcement learning due to partial observability.
method Representation-based approach to POMDPs, leading to a tractable algorithm.
result Empirically demonstrates superior performance with partial observations.
CVRL tackles complex visual observations in reinforcement learning.
problem Complex visual observations in natural environments.
method Contrastive Variational Reinforcement Learning (CVRL) learns a contrastive variational model by maximizing mutual information between latent states and observations.
result CVRL achieves comparable performance with state-of-the-art model-based DRL methods and significantly outperforms them on tasks with complex observations.
A new algorithm CAP learns optimal policies from observational data with confounding bias and missing observations.
problem Offline contextual bandit with confounding bias and missing observations.
method CAP policy learning, forming reward function as solution of integral equation system, building confidence set, and greedily taking action with pessimism.
result Developed an upper bound to the suboptimality of CAP for the offline contextual bandit problem.
We study the problem of learning influence functions under incomplete observations of node activations. Incomplete observations are a major concern as most (online and real-world) social networks are not fully observable. We establish both proper and improper PAC learnability of influence functions under randomly missi…
New surface observables yield 2-knot invariants in nonabelian theories.
problem Developing new invariants for nonabelian theories.
method Introducing surface observables in BF theory and Yang-Mills theory.
result Surface observables induce new 2-knot invariants and electric fluxes.
Observational learning is a type of learning that occurs as a function of observing, retaining and possibly replicating or imitating the behaviour of another agent. It is a core mechanism appearing in various instances of social learning and has been found to be employed in several intelligent species, including humans…
The paper cleans label noise in supervised classification using Bernoulli sampling.
problem Label noise degrades supervised classifier performance.
method Proposes a label noise cleaning method based on Bernoulli random sampling.
result The method separates clean and noisy observations without prior label information.
New framework for reinforcement learning with sporadic state observations.
problem Partial observability in reinforcement learning.
method Action-Triggered Sporadically Traceable Markov Decision Processes (ATST-MDPs).
result Optimistic algorithm achieving regret bound for episodic learning.
We characterize value functions in partially observable MDPs as semi-algebraic sets.
problem Understanding feasible value functions in partially observable Markov decision processes.
method Characterization of feasible value functions as semi-algebraic sets defined by polynomial inequalities.
result The feasible set of value functions in POMDPs is a semi-algebraic set, not a polytope as in MDPs.
Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with continuous state and observation spaces have powerful flexibility for representing real-world decision and control problems but are notoriously difficult to solve. Recent online sampling-based algorithms that use observation likelihood weighting have shown un…
New method for tensor completion from specific mode observations.
problem Recovering multiway data tensors from partial observations.
method Tensor train decomposition for fiber-wise observations.
result Deterministic recovery guarantees for specific observation patterns.
New algorithm infers trajectories from partial observations using optimal transport.
problem Inferring trajectories from partial observations of coupled systems.
method Extends MFL algorithm to latent SDEs using observable state space models and partial observations.
result Experiments show significant outperformance over latent-free baseline.