Deep neural networks predict electricity consumption accurately.
problem Predicting future electricity consumption for better management.
method Used Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to predict electricity consumption based on past data.
result Both RNN and LSTM achieved an average Root Mean Square error of 0.1.
Paper uses CVAE to simulate tariff impacts on electricity consumption.
problem Simulating tariff impacts on household electricity consumption.
method CVAE-based clustering and generation of consumption profiles.
result CVAE method can reproduce rebound and side effects in consumption profiles.
PSQRNN model forecasts electricity consumption in China by integrating neural networks and quantile regression.
problem Electricity forecasting in China due to regional economic, social, and natural conditions.
method PSQRNN combines neural networks and semiparametric quantile regression to model electricity consumption.
result PSQRNN model outperforms traditional methods in forecasting electricity consumption in China.
New method tracks electricity flows to measure carbon emissions in real-time.
problem Accurate measurement of carbon emissions from electricity consumption.
method Real-time consumption-based accounting using flow tracing.
result Substantial differences found between production and consumption intensities.
We investigate the hierarchical structures of countries based on electricity consumption and economic growth by using the real amounts of their consumption over a certain time period. We use of electricity consumption data to detect the topological properties of 60 countries from 1971 to 2008. These countries are divid…
New LSTM model predicts disaggregated electricity loads accurately.
problem Forecasting disaggregated electricity loads from smart meters.
method Single complex LSTM model capturing individual consumption patterns.
result Model accurately predicts future loads of new consumers.
New method for selecting clusters in residential electricity data.
problem Selecting useful clusters in electricity consumption data.
method Formalizing expert knowledge as external validation measures.
result Successfully reconstructed customer archetypes.
Bayesian model for energy consumption helps electric vehicles navigate efficiently.
problem Limited battery capacity in electric vehicles makes energy efficient navigation challenging.
method Developed an online learning framework using Bayesian models and exploration strategies like Thompson Sampling.
result Established rigorous regret bounds for Thompson Sampling in both single-agent and multi-agent settings.
Fast, interpretable electricity consumption scenarios for individual consumers.
problem Estimating unknown electricity consumption time series for reinforcement planning.
method Predictive Clustering Trees (PCTs) for efficient and interpretable scenario generation.
result PCTs generate accurate electricity consumption scenarios at least 7 times faster than state-of-the-art methods.
Convolutional model disaggregates electricity consumption data.
problem Disaggregating aggregate electricity consumption data into individual appliance usage.
method Gated linear unit convolutional layers and residual blocks refine neural network output. Partially overlapped sequences are averaged for final output.
result The proposed model outperforms existing models in disaggregating various appliance usage.
Deep RNN detects electricity theft in smart grids.
problem Electricity theft in smart grids.
method Generalized deep recurrent neural network (RNN) with gated recurrent unit (GRU) and random hyper-parameter tuning.
result Superior performance compared to existing detectors.
The accuracy of the household electricity consumption forecast is vital in taking better cost effective and energy efficient decisions. In order to design accurate, proper and efficient forecasting model, characteristics of the series have to been analyzed. The source of time series data comes from Online Enerjisa Syst…
Textual data predicts electricity consumption and weather.
problem Lack of textual data in time series prediction models.
method Used TF-IDF and neural word embeddings to predict time series from text.
result Textual data can predict time series with sufficient accuracy.
Enhances NMF for better time series recovery and prediction using side information.
problem Reconstruct and predict electricity consumption time series.
method Extends NMF with side information, proposes HALSX algorithm.
result Improved recovery and prediction performance validated on various datasets.
Hierarchical clustering models capture electricity load patterns from smart meters.
problem Improving efficiency and sustainability of electricity systems.
method Quantile autocovariances and autocorrelations for summarizing time series.
result Clusters identify relevant consumption behaviors and capture geo-demographic segmentation.
Motivated by electricity consumption metering, we extend existing nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithms to use linear measurements as observations, instead of matrix entries. The objective is to estimate multiple time series at a fine temporal scale from temporal aggregates measured on each individual serie…
Adaptive models improve electricity demand forecasting during lockdown.
problem Poor load forecasting due to sudden consumption changes during lockdown.
method Adaptive generalized additive models with Kalman filters and expert aggregation.
result Significant reduction in prediction errors compared to traditional models.
Proposes a pricing agent using reinforcement learning to balance renewable energy demand.
problem Intermittent renewable energy sources challenge carbon-free electricity generation.
method Reinforcement learning approach to balance customer demand with renewable energy generation.
result Demonstrates improved electricity pricing strategy for renewable energy integration.
In this paper, we study the price responsiveness of electricity consumption from empirical commercial and industrial load data obtained from Texas. Employing a dynamical system perspective, we show that price responsive demand can be modeled as a hybrid of a Hammerstein model with delay following a price surge, and a l…
Novel probabilistic models forecast residential heating and electricity demand at hourly resolution.
problem Accurate hourly forecasting of residential heating and electricity demand.
method Probabilistic deep learning models trained on gas-heated region data.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy compared to NREL's ResStock model.
The paper analyzes MENA region's energy consumption and policy needs for renewable energy.
problem High dependency on oil and low renewable energy penetration in MENA region.
method Analysis of World Bank datasets and policy portfolio in MENA countries.
result MENA region has high potential for solar energy but faces challenges in decoupling economic growth from energy consumption.
Paper proposes a neural network for disaggregating appliance-level energy consumption.
problem Estimating appliance-level electricity consumption from a single meter.
method Adapts a neural network to classify operational state changes of appliances.
result Competitive performance compared to existing methods in simulated experiments.
Crowdsourcing generated useful hypotheses for predicting residential energy usage.
problem Predicting residential electric energy usage using crowdsourced data.
method Crowdsourced questions and answers were used to build a predictive model of monthly electric energy consumption.
result The crowd can generate useful hypotheses for predicting energy usage, even with sparse data.
We propose a new structural model that can compute the electricity spot and forward prices in two coupled markets with limited interconnection and multiple fuels. We choose a structural approach in order to represent some key characteristics of electricity spot prices such as their link to fuel prices, consumption leve…
Model detects electricity theft with high accuracy.
problem Detecting electricity theft on imbalanced datasets.
method Multi-head self-attention mechanism with dilated convolutions and binary mask.
result Achieved AUC of 0.926, improving previous work by 17%.
Model equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets with uncertainty.
problem Formulate equilibrium model for intraday electricity trading with balancing constraints and uncertainty.
method Develop equilibrium model with agents' balancing constraints, forecasted consumption, production uncertainties, and Markov chain outages.
result Existence and uniqueness of equilibrium price as a martingale, with insights into price formation and impact of uncertainty.
Method minimizes electricity procurement cost based on demand prediction errors.
problem Minimizing electricity procurement cost in spot markets.
method Formulate method to minimize procurement cost over two parameters.
result Minimizes total electricity cost with known unit prices and prediction errors.
New RDPC dissimilarity measure improves time series clustering.
problem Improving time series clustering methods for diverse data.
method Combining weighted Pearson correlation with largest element-wise differences.
result RDPC outperforms existing methods in complex datasets.
Algorithm optimizes electricity procurement costs by 1.65%.
problem Minimizing energy cost while covering forecast consumption.
method Deep learning forecasting and deviation indicator.
result Reduction of 1.65% in costs compared to uniform policy.
We consider the setting of sequential prediction of arbitrary sequences based on specialized experts. We first provide a review of the relevant literature and present two theoretical contributions: a general analysis of the specialist aggregation rule of Freund et al. (1997) and an adaptation of fixed-share rules of He…
We consider the problem of optimal trading for a power producer in the context of intraday electricity markets. The aim is to minimize the imbalance cost induced by the random residual demand in electricity, i.e. the consumption from the clients minus the production from renewable energy. For a simple linear price impa…
Develops effective adversarial attacks on probabilistic forecasting models.
problem Adversarial attacks on neural models outputting probability distributions.
method Effective generation of adversarial attacks through Monte-Carlo estimation and Bayesian conditioning.
result Demonstrates successful generation of attacks with small input perturbations.
ABACUS detects changes in multivariate data without labels.
problem Challenging to detect changes in correlated multivariate data.
method Bayesian source separation with multi-level sparsity.
result Competitive or superior performance in simulations and real-world applications.
New methods improve electricity load forecasting using hierarchical transfer learning.
problem Improving electricity load forecasts at national scale using smart meter data.
method Developed two hierarchical transfer learning methods based on stacking and aggregation of experts.
result Significant improvement in predictions compared to benchmark algorithms.
Bayesian model for energy-efficient EV navigation.
problem Limited battery capacity in electric vehicles.
method Bayesian modeling and online learning framework with exploration strategies.
result Established rigorous regret bounds for Thompson Sampling.
Consumer Demand Response (DR) is an important research and industry problem, which seeks to categorize, predict and modify consumer's energy consumption. Unfortunately, traditional clustering methods have resulted in many hundreds of clusters, with a given consumer often associated with several clusters, making it diff…
New pricing model identifies and values different generator attributes.
problem Traditional hourly scheduling ignores time continuity and inter-temporal constraints.
method Continuous time commodity model with spot pricing and load duration models.
result Load duration pricing reduces total electricity purchasing cost and distributes profits more equitably.
The paper develops a method for forecasting power consumption at various levels of aggregation.
problem Forecasting power consumption at different levels of household aggregation.
method Three-step process: feature generation, aggregation, and projection.
result The method provides theoretical guarantees on prediction error and performs well on real data.
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
problem Accurate hourly electricity demand forecasting in the face of multifaceted uncertainties.
method Interpretable probabilistic mid-term forecasting model using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs).
result Highlights vulnerability of countries to extreme weather scenarios under electric heating adoption.
We investigate relationship between annual electric power consumption per capita and gross domestic production (GDP) per capita for 131 countries. We found that the relationship can be fitted with a power-law function. We examine the relationship for 47 prefectures in Japan. Furthermore, we investigate values of annual…
Study shows visual feedback and monetary incentives reduce plugload energy consumption in commercial buildings.
problem Mitigating energy consumption in commercial buildings through occupant plugload control.
method Field experiments with visual feedback and monetary incentives in government and university buildings.
result Mean energy reduction of ~9.52% in office environments and ~21.61% in university environments with visual feedback.
Research focuses on predicting electricity prices with complex models considering probabilistic forecasts.
problem Challenging task due to market dynamics and weather and business activity dependence.
method Shift from econometric to statistical/machine learning models, considering probabilistic forecasts.
result More accurate predictions with complex models and probabilistic measures.
AutoPQ automates quantile forecasting for smart grids, reducing workload and environmental impact.
problem Accurate and unbiased uncertainty quantification in probabilistic forecasting for smart grid operations.
method AutoPQ uses a conditional Invertible Neural Network (cINN) to generate quantile forecasts from point forecasts, automating model selection and hyperparameter optimization.
result AutoPQ outperforms state-of-the-art methods while reducing computational effort and environmental impact.
Frugal method predicts multiple local electricity loads efficiently.
problem Day-ahead forecasting of over 1000 substations in France.
method Adaptive generalized additive models with state-space representations, combined with transfer learning.
result Reduction of computational needs and emissions with competitive accuracy.
The paper forecasts joint electricity demand across 14 British regions using additive models.
problem Forecasting regional electricity demand with cross-regional dependencies.
method Modified Cholesky parametrisation for multivariate Gaussian model, gradient boosting for model selection.
result The proposed model outperforms non-Gaussian copula-based models in forecasting.
TCA algorithm saves up to 40% energy in IoT devices.
problem Energy consumption and user comfort trade-off in IoT devices.
method Incremental learning Temporal Clustering Algorithm (TCA) for IoT devices.
result Achieved up to 40% energy savings with high success rate.
New method for disaggregate electricity demand forecasting at household level.
problem Challenges in forecasting electricity demand at individual household level.
method Additive stacking method for probabilistic disaggregate electricity demand forecasting.
result Improved accuracy in disaggregate electricity demand forecasting.
FedGAN trains GANs across distributed data sources with reduced communication.
problem Training GANs across non-independent data sources with privacy and communication constraints.
method FedGAN uses local generators and discriminators synced via an intermediary, proving convergence under standard assumptions.
result FedGAN converges and performs similarly to general distributed GANs with reduced communication complexity.