A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Generative Networks outperform traditional methods in PiT ESG generation.
Paper introduces a new method for calibrating ESGs to both historical and forward-looking data.
Developing an AI economist agent using RAG, knowledge graphs, and LLMs for economic scenario analysis.
In this paper, we present the principal components of an economic scenario generator (ESG), both for the theoretical design and for practical implementation. The choice of these components should be linked to the ultimate vocation of the economic scenario generator, which can be either a tool for pricing financial prod…
Generative neural networks improve insurance market risk modeling.
Validates economic scenarios using statistical tests on stochastic processes.
Study examines how taxes affect wealth inequality in economic models.
In this paper, we implement a stochastic deflator with five economic and financial risk factors: interest rates, market price of risk, stock prices, default intensities, and convenience yields. We examine the deflator with different financial assets, such as stocks, zero-coupon bonds, vanilla options, and corporate cou…
We study the effects of introducing information inefficiency in a model for a random linear economy with a representative consumer. This is done by considering statistical, instead of classical, economic general equilibria. Employing two different approaches we show that inefficiency increases the consumption set of a …
New methods improve Bayesian inference for complex economic models.
Researchers validate ML scenario generators by checking dependencies and detecting memorization effects.
Quantum crypto-economics models price risks in blockchain technology.
Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous perturbations tend to exhibi…
SOC theory explains financial volatility and economic shocks.
We consider calculation of capital requirements when the underlying economic scenarios are determined by simulatable risk factors. In the respective nested simulation framework, the goal is to estimate portfolio tail risk, quantified via VaR or TVaR of a given collection of future economic scenarios representing factor…
We study a credit risk model which captures effects of economic interactions on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative, and competitive, business relations is taken into account. We provide an analytic solution of the mo…
Study tests five popular trading signal families and finds four refuted, one inconclusive, and one not refuted.
This study examines non-performing assets and cryptocurrencies in Japan.
Unified framework for risk evaluation under uncertainty.
Improves stock market predictions on Election Day.
Develops a generic two-layer framework for adaptive ABMs.
Develops a method for reverse stress testing in multivariate scenarios.
This article presents a theoretical model for a dynamic system based on sustainable development. Due to the relatively absence of theoretical studies and practical issues in the area of sustainable development, Romania aspires to the principles of sustainable development. Based on the concept as a process in which econ…
Paper uses non-linear dimension reduction for better economic forecasting.
Develops a method for stress testing correlations of financial portfolios.
We propose in this work a kinetic wealth-exchange model of economic growth by introducing saving as a non consumed fraction of production. In this new model, which starts also from microeconomic arguments, it is found that economic transactions between pairs of agents leads the system to a macroscopic behavior where to…
Optimal intervention in economic networks modeled as influence maximization, with hard computational problems.
FinML-Chain integrates blockchain data for financial machine learning.
This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only risk measures that satisfy a set of economic axioms for the Choquet expected …
The accurate characterization of the business cycles in the nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems in the time of globalization represents a formidable research problem. The central banks and other financial institutions make their decisions on the minimum capital requirements, countercyclical capital buffer …
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
This paper forecasts renewable energy prospects in South America through cross-border interconnection.
Study optimal timing to divest from assets with uncertain future scenarios.
A new SOHP filter improves trend estimation in economic time series.
We study an agent-based model of evolution of wealth distribution in a macro-economic system. The evolution is driven by multiplicative stochastic fluctuations governed by the law of proportionate growth and interactions between agents. We are mainly interested in interactions increasing wealth inequality that is in a …
Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has been proven to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions can be both categorical and continuous variables containing…
Generative model improves intraday electricity price forecasting.
Generating realistic asset-class scenarios from time series and curves
Reviews six finance topics, including 'radical complexity'.
SwiGAN generates drought scenarios for climate risk management.
At what level should government or companies support research? This complex multi-faceted question encompasses such qualitative bonus as satisfying natural human curiosity, the quest for knowledge and the impact on education and culture, but one of its most scrutinized component reduces to the assessment of economic pe…
Tax dynamics affects wealth distribution in a linearly growing socio-economic model.
By treating the financial market as a thermodynamic system, we establish a one-to-one correspondence between thermodynamic variables and economic quantities. Measured by the expected loss under the worst-case scenario, financial risk caused by model uncertainty is regarded as a result of the interaction between financi…
A new method for efficient nested Monte Carlo simulations in financial modeling.
The sustainability conditions for the market participants with a different ownership model were also determined. It was revealed, that the nonlinear form of the equations describing the market behavior with the prevailing private capital, predetermines the development of such a market according to the subharmonic casca…
We study a simple, solvable model that allows us to investigate effects of credit contagion on the default probability of individual firms, in both portfolios of firms and on an economy wide scale. While the effect of interactions may be small in typical (most probable) scenarios they are magnified, due to feedback, by…
Enormous online textual information provides intriguing opportunities for understandings of social and economic semantics. In this paper, we propose a novel text regression model based on a conditional generative adversarial network (GAN), with an attempt to associate textual data and social outcomes in a semi-supervis…
A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. …