A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New interpretation reconciles country and product complexity.
We study the effect of the social stratification on the wealth distribution on a system of interacting economic agents that are constrained to interact only within their own economic class. The economical mobility of the agents is related to its success in exchange transactions. Different wealth distributions are obtai…
This study analyzes economic policy uncertainty indices using visibility graphs.
Study shows GDP and CPI predict CCC funding, highlighting need for economic forecasting.
Socio-economic inequality is characterized from data using various indices. The Gini () index, giving the overall inequality is the most common one, while the recently introduced Kolkata () index gives a measure of fraction of population who possess top fraction of wealth in the society. Here, we show t…
This paper presents a simple model to measure the relative economic growth of economic systems. The model considers S-Shaped patterns of economic growth that, represented with a linear model, measure how an economic system grows in comparison with another one. In particular, this model introduces an approach which indi…
We introduce a simple model for addressing the controversy in the study of financial systems, sometimes taken as brownian-like processes and other as critical systems with fluctuations of arbitrary magnitude. The model considers a collection of economical agents which establish trade connections among them according to…
A relation between interest rates and inflation is presented using a two component economic model and a simple general principle. Preliminary results indicate a remarkable similarity to classical economic theories, in particular that of Wicksell.
The paper uses machine learning to predict the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
From positions, attained by modern theoretical physics in understanding of the universe bases, the methodological and philosophical analysis of fundamental physical concepts and their formal and informal connections with the real economic measurings is carried out. Procedures for heterogeneous economic time determinati…
Google Trends data improves economic forecasts of private consumption.
The combination of the network theoretic approach with recently available abundant economic data leads to the development of novel analytic and computational tools for modelling and forecasting key economic indicators. The main idea is to introduce a topological component into the analysis, taking into account consiste…
How are economic activities linked to geographic locations? To answer this question, we use a data-driven approach that builds on the information about location, ownership and economic activities of the world's 3,000 largest firms and their almost one million subsidiaries. From this information we generate a bipartite …
The paper analyzes tech specialization and diversification at various scales.
Socio-economic inequality is measured using various indices. The Gini () index, giving the overall inequality is the most commonly used, while the recently introduced Kolkata () index gives a measure of fraction of population who possess top fraction of wealth in the society. This article reviews the ch…
The thermodynamics of markets is analyzed, revealing parallels with thermodynamic laws.
In this paper, we present the principal components of an economic scenario generator (ESG), both for the theoretical design and for practical implementation. The choice of these components should be linked to the ultimate vocation of the economic scenario generator, which can be either a tool for pricing financial prod…
The paper predicts U.S. nonfarm employment using machine learning.
Study finds macroeconomic indicators predict health workforce and infrastructure measures.
QLSTM outperforms LSTM in predicting KSE 100 index movements.
Study finds nighttime lights correlate with Indian GDP growth.
An interesting toy model has recently been proposed on Schumpeterian economic dynamics by Thurner {\it et al.} following the idea of economist Joseph Schumpeter. Punctuated equilibrium dynamics is shown to emerge from this model and some detail analyses of the time series indicate SOC kind of behaviours. The focus in t…
The paper predicts financial markets using news text and semantic network analysis.
Analyzes Indian commercial dynamism using time series data.
Study creates a global living index to assess quality of life.
Model predicts real-time job applicant numbers for regional economic analysis.
DRL enhances economic modeling with deep learning methods.
In this paper the correlation between education, research and macroeconomic strength of countries at a global scale is analyzed on the basis of statistical data published by the UNIDO and OECD. It uses sets of composite indicators describing the economical performance and competitiveness as well as those relevant for h…
Paper classifies economic states and optimizes portfolios for stagflationary environments.
Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat, or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single…
We report quantitative relations between corruption level and economic factors, such as country wealth and foreign investment per capita, which are characterized by a power law spanning multiple scales of wealth and investments per capita. These relations hold for diverse countries, and also remain stable over differen…
Payments data and machine learning improve nowcasting accuracy for macroeconomic indicators.
Economic systems are similar with physic systems for their large number of individuals and the exist of equilibrium. In this paper, we present a model applying the equilibrium statistical model in economic systems. Consistent with statistical physics, we define a series of concepts, such as economic temperature, econom…
In the same way as the Hilbert Program was a response to the foundational crisis of mathematics, this article tries to formulate a research program for the socio-economic sciences. The aim of this contribution is to stimulate research in order to close serious knowledge gaps in mainstream economics that the recent fina…
Model predicts S&P 500 IT sector index prices with high accuracy.
We develop a new DTSM with nonlinearities using Gaussian Processes for better interest rate forecasting.
We argue that a stochastic model of economic exchange, whose steady-state distribution is a Generalized Beta Prime (also known as GB2), and some unique properties of the latter, are the reason for GB2's success in describing wealth/income distributions. We use housing sale prices as a proxy to wealth/income distributio…
Log-ergodic model improves velocity of money prediction.
The study examines tail dependence between global economic uncertainty and BRICS currencies using high-frequency data.
Study shows economic policy uncertainty increases stock market crash risk during pandemic.
Study shows how China's stock market reflects economic demand changes during COVID-19.
Economic factors significantly influence stock returns, as shown by attribution analysis.
Human mobility has a significant impact on several layers of society, from infrastructural planning and economics to the spread of diseases and crime. Representing the system as a complex network, in which nodes are assigned to regions (e.g., a city) and links indicate the flow of people between two of them, physics-in…
Quantifying the improvement in human living standard, as well as the city growth in developing countries, is a challenging problem due to the lack of reliable economic data. Therefore, there is a fundamental need for alternate, largely unsupervised, computational methods that can estimate the economic conditions in the…
The Unified Growth Theory is a puzzling collection of myths based on illusions created by hyperbolic distributions. Some of these myths are discussed. The examination of data shows that the three stages of growth (Malthusian Regime, Post-Malthusian Regime and Modern Growth Regime) did not exist and that Industrial Revo…
A four-pronged approach to dealing with Social Science Phenomenon is outlined. This methodology is applied to Financial Services, Economic Growth and Well-Being. The four prongs are like the four directions for an army general looking for victory. Just like the four directions, we need to be aware that there is a degre…
Study proposes new methods to calculate probabilistic benchmarks in noisy data.
Many studies in economics deal with the non-reliability cost to assess insurance fees or investment analyses, but none takes into consideration the mechanical aspect of reliability analysis. Other studies in mechanics give some tools and methods to carry out reliability analyses and fragility study. This study develope…