A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New framework for interpretable firm characteristics factors.
The stock market has been known to form homogeneous stock groups with a higher correlation among different stocks according to common economic factors that influence individual stocks. We investigate the role of common economic factors in the market in the formation of stock networks, using the arbitrage pricing model …
Economic factors significantly influence stock returns, as shown by attribution analysis.
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.
Paper extends quantile factor analysis with probabilistic methods for better economic policy and financial condition prediction.
The study examines how global economic policy uncertainty affects crude oil futures volatility.
Paper uses non-linear dimension reduction for better economic forecasting.
The purpose of this study is to measure the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth and determine the share of each of the economic growth sources in the mining sector of Iran. The time period of this study is 1355-1385 of the Solar Hijri calendar (roughly overlaying with the time period of 1976-2006 of the Gregorian ca…
Alpha-R1 uses LLMs to reason about economic factors and news for better alpha screening.
Study finds relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
Study examines money flow network among firms' accounts in a Japanese region.
We report quantitative relations between corruption level and economic factors, such as country wealth and foreign investment per capita, which are characterized by a power law spanning multiple scales of wealth and investments per capita. These relations hold for diverse countries, and also remain stable over differen…
Enhances FAVAR models with autoencoder for better economic forecasting and interpretability.
This work aims to study the Portuguese regional agglomeration process, using the linear form the New Economic Geography models that emphasize the importance of spatial factors (distance, costs of transport and communication) in explaining of the concentration of economic activity in certain locations. In a theoretical …
In this paper, we implement a stochastic deflator with five economic and financial risk factors: interest rates, market price of risk, stock prices, default intensities, and convenience yields. We examine the deflator with different financial assets, such as stocks, zero-coupon bonds, vanilla options, and corporate cou…
Study shows how to better estimate credit provisions and economic capital.
We obtain a lower asymptotic bound on the decay rate of the probability of a portfolio's underperformance against a benchmark over a large time horizon. It is assumed that the prices of the securities are governed by geometric Brownian motions with the coefficients depending on an economic factor, possibly nonlinearly.…
Peru's abundant natural resources and friendly trade policies has made the country a major economic player in both South America and the global community. Consequently, exports are playing an increasingly important role in Peru's national economy. Indeed, growing from 13.1% as of 1994, exports now contribute approximat…
Concurrent engineering taking into account product life-cycle factors seems to be one of the industrial challenges of the next years. Cost estimation and management are two main strategic tasks that imply the possibility of managing costs at the earliest stages of product development. This is why it is indispensable to…
Modeling business cycles via collective risk fluctuations in economic agents' risk space.
Being one of the most important factors of economic growth of the country, innovations became one of the key vectors in Russian economic policy. In this field technology parks are one of the most effective instruments which can provide growth of innovative activity in sectors, regions and economies. In this paper, we m…
Study analyzes GDP growth of CEE countries using time-varying coefficients.
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover losses during the adverse economic downturns; the so-called "downturn LGD" requ…
Innovation is among the key factors driving a country's economic and social growth. But what are the factors that make a country innovative? How do they differ across different parts of the world and different stages of development? In this work done in collaboration with the World Economic Forum (WEF), we analyze the …
Paper defines conditions for feasible correlation matrices from factor structures.
Novel framework analyzes economic shifts in data-poor economies.
The valuation process that economic agents undergo for investments with uncertain payoff typically depends on their statistical views on possible future outcomes, their attitudes toward risk, and, of course, the payoff structure itself. Yields vary across different investment opportunities and their interrelations are …
We consider an optimal investment and consumption problem for a Black-Scholes financial market with stochastic volatility and unknown stock appreciation rate. The volatility parameter is driven by an external economic factor modeled as a diffusion process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type with unknown drift. We use the dynami…
In this paper we derive the maximum entropy characteristics of a particular rank order distribution, namely the discrete generalized beta distribution, which has recently been observed to be extremely useful in modelling many several rank-size distributions from different context in Arts and Sciences, as a two-paramete…
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
Bubbles are essential in certain economic models with high growth and low interest rates.
MarketGAN generates financial returns using GANs to match empirical stylized facts.
The relationship between micro-structure and macro-structure of complex systems using information geometry has been dealt by several authors. From this perspective, we are going to apply it as a geometrical structure connecting both microeconomics and macroeconomics . The results lead us to introduce new modified quant…
Analyzes how economic policies affect wealth distribution in Bitcoin token economy.
The aim of this paper is to identify the determinants of international stock markets integration. Intuitively we selected a great number of factors linked to financial integration. Then, we developed an international asset-pricing model with time-varying degree of integration. This model is estimated for 30 countries (…
Log-ergodic model improves velocity of money prediction.
The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify shock propagation on the global trade-investment multiplex network. To this aim, w…
Hybrid approach improves probabilistic forecasts for electricity trading.
In the paper portfolio optimization over long run risk sensitive criterion is considered. It is assumed that economic factors which stimulate asset prices are ergodic but non necessarily uniformly ergodic. Solution to suitable Bellman equation using local span contraction with weighted norms is shown. The form of optim…
A technique from stochastic portfolio theory [Fernholz, 1998] is applied to analyse equity returns of Small, Mid and Large cap portfolios in an emerging market through periods of growth and regional crises, up to the onset of the global financial crisis. In particular, we factorize portfolios in the South African marke…
This paper studies a continuous-time market {under stochastic environment} where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a target terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return with multiple stocks and a bond. In the considered model firstly proposed by [3], the mean returns of individu…
SOFARI improves inference on multi-task learning latent factors.
Paper introduces a new method for calibrating ESGs to both historical and forward-looking data.
This paper develops a spectral theory of Markovian asset pricing models where the underlying economic uncertainty follows a continuous-time Markov process X with a general state space (Borel right process (BRP)) and the stochastic discount factor (SDF) is a positive semimartingale multiplicative functional of X. A key …
We propose a fast algorithm for computing the economic capital, Value at Risk and Greeks in the Gaussian factor model. The algorithm proposed here is much faster than brute force Monte Carlo simulations or Fourier transform based methods \cite{MD}. While the algorithm of Hull-White \cite{HW} is comparably fast, it assu…
Hierarchical analysis is considered and a multilevel model is presented in order to explore causality, chance and complexity in financial economics. A coupled system of models is used to describe multilevel interactions, consistent with market data: the lowest level is occupied by agents generating the prices of indivi…
Study uses ML and causal analysis to predict student performance factors.
Study uses Perelman and Ricci flow methods to analyze economic inequality.