NESYM combines AI and Earth models for new climate insights.
problem Replacing traditional Earth models with AI.
method Neural Earth System Modelling (NESYM) integrating AI and climate models.
result Artificial intelligence may render traditional models obsolete.
New method shows data-driven causal studies can be misleading.
problem Misattribution of causality in data-driven earth science studies.
method Subsample-based ensemble approach for robust causality analysis.
result Transfer entropy-based causal graphs can be spurious.
A new method estimates time-varying parameters in earth system models using offline and online data assimilation.
problem Estimating time-varying parameters in complex earth system models.
method Hybrid Offline Online Parameter Estimation with Particle Filtering (HOOPE-PF)
result HOOPE-PF outperforms existing methods, especially with small ensemble sizes.
New algorithms predict causal links better than traditional methods in time series data.
problem Learning causal structure from time series data with challenges in real-world Earth sciences.
method Combination of established ideas for linear methods to identify causal links in non-linear systems, with a focus on large regression coefficients.
result Large regression coefficients can predict causal links better than small p-values in practice.
DecoR estimates causal effects in confounded time series data.
problem Estimating causal effects in time series with unobserved confounders.
method Robust regression in the frequency domain.
result Proves upper bounds for estimation error of DecoR, implying consistency.
Kernel methods' derivatives make complex models more interpretable.
problem Interpreting complex kernel models.
method Deriving kernel functions' derivatives and applying them to various kernel methods.
result Derivatives of kernel functions can be computed and applied to improve model interpretation.
The purpose of the New York Workshop on Computer, Earth and Space Sciences is to bring together the New York area's finest Astronomers, Statisticians, Computer Scientists, Space and Earth Scientists to explore potential synergies between their respective fields. The 2011 edition (CESS2011) was a great success, and we w…
Meta-learning improves few-shot land cover classification across diverse regions.
problem Capturing diversity in land cover classification across different geographic regions.
method Model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm applied to classification and segmentation tasks.
result Few-shot model adaptation outperforms traditional methods in diverse land cover classification tasks.
Proposes a novel MTL approach based on bias-variance analysis.
problem Improving multi-task learning performance through shared knowledge.
method Two-phase iterative aggregation of targets and features using bias-variance analysis.
result Validation on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Numerical models based on physics represent the state-of-the-art in earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest-generation computers, reducing the ability of …
Challenge to separate Earth's magnetic field from vehicle's magnetic field for accurate navigation.
problem Separate Earth's magnetic field from vehicle's magnetic field for accurate magnetic navigation.
method Use machine learning (ML) and integrate physics of magnetic navigation (SciML) to remove aircraft magnetic field from total magnetic field.
result A model can be constructed to effectively remove aircraft magnetic field from the dataset.
Machine learning models accurately predict the state and dynamics of reactive mixing.
problem Accurate prediction of reactive mixing for Earth and environmental science applications.
method Built a high-fidelity numerical model to simulate reactive mixing scenarios. Used 20 different machine learning emulators to classify mixing state and predict three QoIs.
result Ensemble methods and MLP models accurately predict the state of reactive mixing and QoIs, significantly faster than high-fidelity simulations.
The paper applies Gaussianization to analyze Earth data, simplifying complex multivariate distributions.
problem Challenges in accurately estimating information content in high-dimensional, heterogeneous Earth data.
method Multivariate Gaussianization for robust probability density estimation.
result Validates the method for estimating information-theoretic measures in Earth system data.
Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data-model integration. Efficient data-model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables i…
Hybrid models combine domain knowledge and data-driven learning for Earth observation.
problem Challenges in modelling Earth observation data with either purely mechanistic or data-driven methods.
method Gaussian process convolution models, specifically latent force models (LFMs), integrating physical knowledge into multioutput GP models.
result Model automatically estimates soil moisture persistence and discovers latent forces related to precipitation.
New method for neural networks to predict histogram data.
problem Lack of principled approach for histogram regression.
method Pinball loss applied to cumulative histogram.
result Accuracy similar to EMD with less computational cost.
Bayesian deep learning predicts satellite collisions.
problem Space debris poses planetary risk.
method Bayesian deep learning with LSTM networks.
result Predicts conjunction event evolution with uncertainties.
The problem of unsupervised learning node embeddings in graphs is one of the important directions in modern network science. In this work we propose a novel framework, which is aimed to find embeddings by \textit{discriminating distributions of similarities (DDoS)} between nodes in the graph. The general idea is implem…
Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and methods from data assimilation and machine learning make it possible to integrate …
Study identifies new stable climate states in climate model.
problem Understanding multistability and transitions in climate models.
method Combination of quasipotential theory and manifold learning.
result Discovery of a third stable climate state not previously known.
Develops a method to estimate network difference in high-dimensional time series data.
problem Estimating network differences in high-dimensional data can be unreliable.
method Uses an L1 penalty on the difference of inverse spectral densities to estimate network differences.
result Establishes consistency of the method for sparse network differences.
A Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) uses a constellation of satellites around the earth for accurate navigation, timing, and positioning. Natural phenomena like space weather introduce irregularities in the Earth's ionosphere, disrupting the propagation of the radio signals that GNSS relies upon. Such disruptio…
Generative models emulate climate model outputs for impact assessment.
problem Outdated climate model projections hinder adaptation and mitigation planning.
method Score-based diffusion on a spherical mesh, trained on monthly ESM fields.
result Generative models produce distributions closely matching ESM outputs.
ACI identifies cause-effect relationships and causal influence ranges in dynamical systems.
problem Detecting and quantifying causal influence ranges in complex systems.
method Bayesian data assimilation and assimilative causal inference (ACI) to trace causes back from observed effects.
result Mathematically rigorous formulations of forward and backward causal influence ranges (CIRs) for nonlinear dynamical systems.
Study analyzes seasonal hydroclimatic features across climates and continents.
problem Lack of seasonal hydroclimatic feature analysis for Koppen-Geiger climates and continents.
method Global-scale analysis of 13,000 time series using 7 features.
result Notable differences in feature magnitudes across Koppen-Geiger climate classes and continental regions.
Study loxodromes and geodesics on rotational surfaces in pseudo-isotropic space.
problem No study on loxodromes in pseudo-isotropic space I_p^3.
method Define pseudo-isotropic angles, derive equations for space-like and time-like loxodromes and geodesics on rotational surfaces.
result Equations for space-like and time-like loxodromes and geodesics on rotational surfaces in pseudo-isotropic space.
Adversarial attacks aim to confound machine learning systems, while remaining virtually imperceptible to humans. Attacks on image classification systems are typically gauged in terms of p-norm distortions in the pixel feature space. We perform a behavioral study, demonstrating that the pixel p-norm for any $0\le p …
One of the most pressing questions in climate science is that of the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance. Aerosols provide the `seeds' on which cloud droplets form, and changes in the amount of aerosol available to a cloud can change its brightness and other physical properties such as optical…
Reservoir Computing enhances climate predictability studies.
problem Improving climate predictability using machine learning.
method Reservoir Computing applied to climate data.
result Reservoir Computing outperforms traditional LIM in predicting climate variables.
In this study, we establish a basis for selecting similarity measures when applying machine learning techniques to solve materials science problems. This selection is considered with an emphasis on the distinctiveness between materials that reflect their nature well. We perform a case study with a dataset of rare-earth…
Simulating complex physical systems often involves solving partial differential equations (PDEs) with some closures due to the presence of multi-scale physics that cannot be fully resolved. Therefore, reliable and accurate closure models for unresolved physics remains an important requirement for many computational phy…
In this paper we form relations for the determination of the elements of the Eötvös matrix of the Earth's normal gravity field. In addition a relation between the Gauss curvature of the normal equipotential surface and the Gauss curvature of the actual equipotential surface both passing through the point P is presented…
Economies are complex man-made systems where organisms and markets interact according to motivations and principles not entirely understood yet. The increasing dissatisfaction with the postulates of traditional economics i.e. perfectly rational agents, interacting through efficient markets in the search of equilibrium,…
A new optimization method improves deep learning accuracy without hyper-parameter tuning.
problem Computational demands and convergence behavior in deep learning training.
method Stochastic quasi-Gauss-Newton (SQGN) optimization method combining stochastic quasi-Newton, Gauss-Newton, and variance reduction.
result SQGN provides excellent accuracy without hyper-parameter experimentation, improving convergence and computational performance.
Machine learning predicts seasonal precipitation for East Africa.
problem Predicting seasonal precipitation for East Africa using machine learning.
method Dimension reduction via EOFs, large-scale climate variability indices as features, interpretable ML algorithm.
result The ML approach shows significant positive skill in predicting precipitation for OND season, comparable to ECMWF forecasts.
Homeowners around the world elevate houses to manage flood risks. Deciding how high to elevate a house poses a nontrivial decision problem. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommends elevating existing houses to the Base Flood Elevation (the elevation of the 100-yr flood) plus a freeboard. This reco…
RSGMs extend SGMs to Riemannian manifolds for better data modeling.
problem Current SGMs are limited to Euclidean spaces; RSGMs handle Riemannian manifolds.
method RSGMs use a noising stage with a diffusion process and a denoising model approximating the time-reversal of the diffusion on Riemannian manifolds.
result RSGMs improve generative modeling for data on Riemannian manifolds.
DA improves solar wind forecasts by updating model boundary conditions.
problem Improving solar wind forecasting accuracy.
method Variational Data Assimilation with solar wind model and in-situ observations.
result DA forecasts are more accurate than non-DA forecasts, especially when STEREO-B's latitude is offset from Earth.
Positive definite kernels are an important tool in machine learning that enable efficient solutions to otherwise difficult or intractable problems by implicitly linearizing the problem geometry. In this paper we develop a set-theoretic interpretation of the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD) and propose Earth Mover's Interse…
FaIRGP model improves climate emulation with physical interpretability.
problem Lack of physical interpretability in data-driven emulators.
method Bayesian approach to a data-driven emulator of energy balance equations.
result Demonstrates skillful emulation of global and spatial surface temperatures.
New method for scalable inference in large-scale regression models with complex error structures.
problem Challenges in statistical inference for large-scale regression models with dependent errors.
method Generalized Method of Wavelet Moments with Exogenous variables (GMWMX).
result Statistical validity and scalability of GMWMX for linear models with complex error structures.
A tensor provides a concise way to codify the interdependence of complex data. Treating a tensor as a d-way array, each entry records the interaction between the different indices. Clustering provides a way to parse the complexity of the data into more readily understandable information. Clustering methods are heavily …
FinTech uses data science and AI to transform finance.
problem Transforming finance with data science and AI.
method DSAI techniques including complex system methods, quantitative methods, etc.
result DSAI enables smart FinTech for various financial sectors.
Earth observation embeddings can convert discrete biome maps into continuous representations that better capture ecological variation.
problem Biome maps impose categorical boundaries that compress continuous variation in biotic communities.
method Fit a linear classifier on Earth observation embeddings to predict biome labels.
result Continuous biome representation outperforms discrete biome labels for predicting species occurrence.
Machine learning improves prediction of complex geology ahead of drilling.
problem Predicting complex geology during drilling in real-time.
method Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) and Forward Deep Neural Network (FDNN) for real-time geological uncertainty reduction.
result Real-time estimates of complex geological uncertainty achieved.
Gaussian processes enhance EO with accurate and uncertain predictions.
problem Challenges in GP models for EO, including data-driven physics and causal inference.
method Data-driven physics-aware models respecting signal characteristics and physical laws.
result GP models need to evolve for better EO applications.
ClimART dataset benchmarks ML emulators for atmospheric RT in climate models.
problem Lack of a comprehensive dataset and standardized practices for ML benchmarking in climate models.
method Builds ClimART, a large dataset with over 10 million samples, and presents novel baselines.
result Indicates shortcomings of prior datasets and network architectures.
Quantum Earth Mover's distance improves stability and efficiency in quantum learning.
problem Quantum learning's loss landscapes often lead to poor local minima and gradients.
method Introduced the quantum Earth Mover's (EM) distance and proposed a quantum Wasserstein generative adversarial network (qWGAN).
result The quantum EM distance makes quantum learning more stable and efficient.