arXiv research

CreDRO learns credal ensembles via distributionally robust optimization, improving EU quantification.

Investment behavior in wine industry influenced by profitability and capitalization.

First European crop map created using satellite data.

Study analyzes EU in variational inference for Bayesian deep learning.

Proposes using DII to identify non-linear causal relationships in EU Allowances returns.

A thermodynamic theory explains EU election vote distributions.

The aim of the present article is to offer a strictly mathematical, statistical treatment of the current account balances in EU and in the Eurozone. Based on Eurostat data, an overview of the total and annual balances is first made for different collections among the EU countries. Then, using the Mathematica technical …

Study identifies clusters of EU countries with similar young mortality patterns.

This study analyzes EU ETS literature trends using bibliometric methods.

China and EU race to develop hydrogen for energy transition.

Study analyzes EU ETS carbon market dynamics, revealing inefficiencies and anomalies.

Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable. But the small number of available observations and small number of economies mean …

The paper develops a test for EU portfolio efficiency in high dimensions.

The recently announced Energy Union by the European Commission is the most recent step in a series of developments aiming at integrating the EU's gas markets to increase social welfare (SW) and security of gas supply. Based on a spatial partial equilibrium model, we analyze the changes in consumption, prices, and SW up…

Study uses non-parametric method to analyze EU ETS price determinants.

Examines financial risks' impact on EU-15 economic growth.

Unified framework for causal inference with reliable uncertainty quantification.

DDSTN improves breast cancer diagnosis by leveraging imbalanced ultrasound modalities.

Improved forecasting of investment dynamics across heterogeneous panels using a two-stage model.

Active learning suffers from biased non-response, which this paper addresses.

Study assesses sugar beet yields under EU's neonicotinoids ban and climate change.

Model predicts EU carbon prices using market and political factors.

Study examines how EU's Value at Risk constraints affect insurance oligopolies.

Among the central tenets of globalization is free migration of labor. Although much has been written about its benefits, little is known about the limitations of globalization, including how immigration affects the anti-globalist sentiment. Analyzing polls data, we find that over the last three years in a group of EU c…

The paper examines how CoCo bonds can enhance financial stability in interconnected banking systems.

Study reveals inefficiencies in EU carbon trading market.

We report on time-varying network connectedness within three banking systems: North America, the EU, and ASEAN. The original method by Diebold and Yilmaz is improved by using exponentially weighted daily returns and ridge regularization on vector autoregression (VAR) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). We…

Using the United Nations COMTRADE database we apply the reduced Google matrix (REGOMAX) algorithm to analyze the multiproduct world trade in years 2004-2016. Our approach allows to determine the trade balance sensitivity of a group of countries to a specific product price increase from a specific exporting country taki…

Inside the EU, the commercial integration of the CEE countries has gained remarkable momentum before the crisis appearance, but it has slightly slowed down afterwards. Consequently, the interest in identifying the factors supporting the commercial integration process is high. Recent findings in the new trade theory sug…

Intense recent discussions have focused on how to provide individuals with control over when their data can and cannot be used --- the EU's Right To Be Forgotten regulation is an example of this effort. In this paper we initiate a framework studying what to do when it is no longer permissible to deploy models derivativ…

The cluster analysis methods are used in order to perform a comparative study of 15 EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some basic macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries are calculated for various moving time windows, and the time variation of the mean statistical distance i…

Study uses neural networks to predict firm earnings, outperforming benchmarks and analysts.

AI systems need reliable testing to ensure safety and trustworthiness.

In decision under risk, the primal moments of mean and variance play a central role to define the local index of absolute risk aversion. In this paper, we show that in canonical non-EU models dual moments have to be used instead of, or on par with, their primal counterparts to obtain an equivalent index of absolute ris…

In this paper, we propose a methodology based on piece-wise homogeneous Markov chain for credit ratings and a multivariate model of the credit spreads to evaluate the financial risk in European Union (EU). Two main aspects are considered: how the financial risk is distributed among the European countries and how large …

ClauseLens uses reinforcement learning to price reinsurance treaties transparently and auditably.

We study the statistics of earning forecasts of US, EU, UK and JP stocks during the period 1987-2004. We confirm, on this large data set, that financial analysts are on average over-optimistic and show a pronounced herding behavior. These effects are time dependent, and were particularly strong in the early nineties an…

Model analyzes trading frictions in cap-and-trade markets, showing how they interact to affect market effectiveness.

The model of rational decision-making in most of economics and statistics is expected utility theory (EU) axiomatised by von Neumann and Morgenstern, Savage and others. This is less the case, however, in financial economics and mathematical finance, where investment decisions are commonly based on the methods of mean-v…

We develop a new criterion to tell if a group $G$ has the maximal gap of $1/2$ in stable commutator length (scl). For amalgamated free products $G = A \star_C B$ we show that every element $g$ in the commutator subgroup of $G$ which does not conjugate into $A$ or $B$ satisfies $scl(g) \geq 1/2$, provided that $C$ embed…

mlpy is a Python Open Source Machine Learning library built on top of NumPy/SciPy and the GNU Scientific Libraries. mlpy provides a wide range of state-of-the-art machine learning methods for supervised and unsupervised problems and it is aimed at finding a reasonable compromise among modularity, maintainability, repro…

In a highly interdependent economic world, the nature of relationships between financial entities is becoming an increasingly important area of study. Recently, many studies have shown the usefulness of minimal spanning trees (MST) in extracting interactions between financial entities. Here, we propose a modified MST n…

Khimshiashvili proved a topological degree formula for the Eu-ler characteristic of the Milnor fibres of a real function-germ with an isolated singularity. We give two generalizations of this result for non-isolated singularities. As corollaries we obtain an algebraic formula for the Euler characteristic of the fibres …

Improved wind speed forecasts for power generation using machine learning.

Study uses RL to optimize investment with financial constraints, showing exploration benefits.

Examines insurance market development and similarity post-2004 EU enlargement.

New indicator detects financial strain through smart meter data.

We present a framework on how to hedge the interest rate sensitivity of liabilities discounted by an extrapolated yield curve. The framework is based on functional analysis in that we consider the extrapolated yield curve as a functional of an observed yield curve and use its Gâteaux variation to understand the sensiti…