Since the debut of Evolution Strategies (ES) as a tool for Reinforcement Learning by Salimans et al. 2017, there has been interest in determining the exact relationship between the Evolution Strategies gradient and the gradient of a similar class of algorithms, Finite Differences (FD).(Zhang et al. 2017, Lehman et al. …
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48 results for “ETS”
Nous considérons un espace topologique qui est localement isomorphe au quotient de R^k par l'action d'un groupe discret et nous l'appelons quasi-variété de dimension k. Les quasi-variétés généralisent les variétés et les V-variétés et représentent le cadre naturel pour la réduction symplectique par rapport à l'action i…
Motivated by concerns that machine learning algorithms may introduce significant bias in classification models, developing fair classifiers has become an important problem in machine learning research. One important paradigm towards this has been providing algorithms for adversarially learning fair classifiers (Zhang e…
Linear interpolation gives better gradients than Gaussian smoothing in derivative-free optimizationmath.OC
In this paper, we consider derivative free optimization problems, where the objective function is smooth but is computed with some amount of noise, the function evaluations are expensive and no derivative information is available. We are motivated by policy optimization problems in reinforcement learning that have rece…
We address the online linear optimization problem when the actions of the forecaster are represented by binary vectors. Our goal is to understand the magnitude of the minimax regret for the worst possible set of actions. We study the problem under three different assumptions for the feedback: full information, and the …
We propose a novel algorithm for sequential matrix completion in a recommender system setting, where the th entry of the matrix corresponds to a user 's rating of product . The objective of the algorithm is to provide a sequential policy for user-product pair recommendation which will yield the highest pos…
In this small note we use results derived in Berestycki et al. to correct the celebrated formulae of Hagan et al. We derive explicitly the correct zero order term in the expansion of the implied volatility in time to maturity. The new term is consistent as . Furthermore, numerical simulations show that it reduc…
Hybrid model combines LSTM and ETS for mid-term electric load forecasting.
problem Mid-term electric load forecasting accuracy.
method Combines LSTM, ETS, and ensemble learning; uses dilated LSTM for long-term relationships.
result High performance and competitiveness compared to classical and machine learning models.
We present an off-policy actor-critic algorithm for Reinforcement Learning (RL) that combines ideas from gradient-free optimization via stochastic search with learned action-value function. The result is a simple procedure consisting of three steps: i) policy evaluation by estimating a parametric action-value function;…
This study analyzes EU ETS literature trends using bibliometric methods.
problem Understanding the evolving research landscape of EU ETS.
method Bibliometric analysis of Scopus database, focusing on publication trends, themes, influential authors, and journals.
result Notable increase in research activity over two decades, particularly during policy changes and economic events.
How can prior knowledge on the transformation invariances of a domain be incorporated into the architecture of a neural network? We propose Equivariant Transformers (ETs), a family of differentiable image-to-image mappings that improve the robustness of models towards pre-defined continuous transformation groups. Throu…
Study compares ARIMA, ETS, NNAR and hybrids for COVID-19 hospitalizations.
problem Forecasting the second wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Italy.
method ARIMA, ETS, NNAR, and hybrid models.
result Hybrid models outperform single models in capturing epidemic patterns.
Dans les années 1940-1970, Alexandrov et l'"École de Leningrad" ont développé une théorie très riche des surfaces singulières. Il s'agit de surfaces topologiques, munie d'une métrique intrinsèque pour laquelle on peut définir une notion de courbure, qui est une mesure de Radon. Cette classe de surfaces a de bonnes prop…
As regulators pay more attentions to losses rather than gains, we are able to derive a new class of risk statistics, named regulator-based risk statistics with scenario analysis in this paper. This new class of risk statistics can be considered as a kind of risk extension of risk statistics introduced by Kou et al. \ci…
R package huge simplifies graph estimation for high-dimensional data.
problem Estimating high-dimensional undirected graphs from data.
method Uses recent results in literature, including recent graph estimation methods.
result Improves on existing package glasso by providing more features and better efficiency.
We show that the auxiliary variable method (Møller et al., 2006; Murray et al., 2006) for inference of Markov random fields can be viewed as an approximate Bayesian computation method for likelihood estimation.
Study shows offline RL under -approximation and partial coverage is harder than previously thought.
problem Theoretical limits of offline reinforcement learning under -approximation and partial coverage.
method Introduced a decision-estimation framework to decompose offline RL complexity into decision and value estimation errors.
result Answered the open question by proving sample inefficiency under partial coverage is not guaranteed by -realizability and Bellman completeness.
Hard to estimate -accurate scores without strong assumptions.
problem Estimating the score of unknown data distributions accurately.
method Reduction to generating samples and leveraging lattice-based cryptography hardness.
result Score estimation is computationally hard even with polynomial sample complexity.
Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte Carlo techniques (Møller et al., 2006; Murray et al., 2006) for tackling this pr…
Recent work by Jacot et al. (2018) has shown that training a neural network using gradient descent in parameter space is related to kernel gradient descent in function space with respect to the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK). Lee et al. (2019) built on this result by establishing that the output of a neural network traine…
DAIS improves AIS by resampling, avoiding gradient issues.
problem Low effective sample size in DAIS.
method DAIS with resampling step to improve efficiency.
result Resampling step avoids gradient variance issues.
Elastic weight consolidation (EWC, Kirkpatrick et al, 2017) is a novel algorithm designed to safeguard against catastrophic forgetting in neural networks. EWC can be seen as an approximation to Laplace propagation (Eskin et al, 2004), and this view is consistent with the motivation given by Kirkpatrick et al (2017). In…
Modelling of daily reference evapotranspiration using deep neural network in different climatescs.LG
Study uses DNN to accurately estimate daily ET o in various climates.
problem Precise estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) for irrigation and water management.
method Investigated artificial neural network (ANN) and deep neural network (DNN) models using six meteorological inputs.
result DNN models, especially P-DNN-SeLU, achieve high accuracy in daily ET o estimation.
The Theory behind UMAP?stat.ML
This paper corrects errors in UMAP's derivation and explains its properties.
problem Errors in UMAP's derivation by McInnes et al.
method Full derivation of Spivak's functors and McInnes et al.'s finite variant.
result Corrected errors and provided an explicit description of the metric realization.
Despite remarkable successes, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is not robust to hyperparameterization, implementation details, or small environment changes (Henderson et al. 2017, Zhang et al. 2018). Overcoming such sensitivity is key to making DRL applicable to real world problems. In this paper, we identify sensitiv…
Study compares forecasting models for European financial markets and cryptocurrencies, finding hybrid ETS-ANN model best.
problem Challenges in predicting financial market fluctuations and cryptocurrency prices.
method Comparative analysis of ARIMA, hybrid ETS-ANN, and kNN models on European financial markets and cryptocurrency data.
result Hybrid ETS-ANN model performs best over extended periods, with moderate accuracy.
Research aims to ensure fair classification across explicit and implicit sensitive features.
problem Ensuring fairness in machine learning models when sensitive features are not explicitly provided.
method Defined explicit and implicit cohorts, used clustering of embeddings, modified loss function.
result Improved classification parity across explicit and implicit sensitive features.
We identify 'critical windows' in diffusion models where specific features emerge, providing a theoretical framework.
problem Understanding narrow time intervals in diffusion models where specific features emerge.
method Developed a formal framework to study these critical windows, showing provable bounds for certain data types.
result Proved that critical windows can be bounded in terms of measures of separation for data from mixtures of log-concave densities.
New estimator stabilizes higher-order influence functions for stable statistical inference.
problem Numerical instability in estimating inverse population Gram matrix.
method Proposes a new stabilized higher-order estimator without sample splitting.
result Stabilized estimator exhibits more stable performance and similar statistical guarantees.
Mirror Langevin Algorithm converges with zero bias.
problem Achieving convergence with zero bias in discrete-time sampling.
method Discretization of Mirror Langevin Diffusion and mean-square analysis.
result Mirror Langevin Algorithm converges with zero bias.
AI models help solve a symplectic topology problem.
problem Lagrangian smoothability question from Abouzaid et al.
method Used large language models (LLM) to approach the problem.
result Suggested new constructions in polyhedral symplectic topology.
Stable ResNetcs.LG
Stable ResNet stabilizes gradients in deep networks.
problem Gradient vanishing and exploding in deep ResNet architectures.
method Introducing Stable ResNet architectures with gradient stabilization and infinite depth expressivity.
result Stable ResNet maintains gradient stability and expressivity in deep networks.
New estimator stabilizes higher-order influence functions for bilinear forms.
problem Stability issues in estimating bilinear forms using higher-order influence functions.
method Proposes a new stabilized higher-order estimator for a class of bilinear forms without sample splitting.
result New estimator exhibits more stable finite-sample performance compared to the empirical higher-order estimator.
Generative models improve commodity hedging using deep learning.
problem Improving risk management in commodity markets.
method Four state-of-the-art generative models adapted for commodity time series.
result Deep hedging of commodity options trained on generated time series shows promising results.
Study uses non-parametric method to analyze EU ETS price determinants.
problem Understanding price determinants of EU ETS to inform policy.
method Non-parametric measure (Information Imbalance) to study variables.
result Commodity variables are most informative in Phase 3, while financial variables become more important in Phase 4.
We compare two recently proposed methods that combine ideas from conformal inference and quantile regression to produce locally adaptive and marginally valid prediction intervals under sample exchangeability (Romano et al., 2019; Kivaranovic et al., 2019). First, we prove that these two approaches are asymptotically ef…
Recent policy optimization approaches have achieved substantial empirical success by constructing surrogate optimization objectives. The Approximate Policy Iteration objective (Schulman et al., 2015a; Kakade and Langford, 2002) has become a standard optimization target for reinforcement learning problems. Using this ob…
New methods improve inference after prediction without strong model assumptions.
problem Improper inference after prediction can lead to invalid results.
method Angelopoulos et al. (2023) and Wang et al. (2020) propose corrections to inference.
result Angelopoulos et al. method controls type 1 error and provides correct coverage.
On the modes of convergence of Stochastic Optimistic Mirror Descent (OMD) for saddle point problemsmath.OC
In this article, we study the convergence of Mirror Descent (MD) and Optimistic Mirror Descent (OMD) for saddle point problems satisfying the notion of coherence as proposed in Mertikopoulos et al. We prove convergence of OMD with exact gradients for coherent saddle point problems, and show that monotone convergence on…
New model selects robustly in adversarial reinforcement learning with unknown corruption.
problem Adversarial corruption in reinforcement learning with unknown total corruption amount.
method Model selection approach for finite-horizon tabular and linear MDPs.
result First worst-case optimal bound without knowledge of total corruption.
Meta-learning is a tool that allows us to build sample-efficient learning systems. Here we show that, once meta-trained, LSTM Meta-Learners aren't just faster learners than their sample-inefficient deep learning (DL) and reinforcement learning (RL) brethren, but that they actually pursue fundamentally different learnin…
Piecewise Normalizing Flowsstat.ML
Piecewise normalizing flows improve multi-modal distribution modeling.
problem Improving accuracy in modeling multi-modal distributions.
method Divide target distribution into clusters, train flows to match standard normal base.
result Piecewise flows outperform standard approaches in accuracy.
We improve adversarial robustness calibration analysis for broader hypothesis sets.
problem Improving calibration for adversarial robustness in machine learning.
method A finer definition of calibration for adversarial robustness.
result Our results cover most common hypothesis sets in machine learning.
New algorithms reduce matching market regret to log(T) with improved stability.
problem Minimizing regret in two-sided matching markets with bandit feedback.
method Phase-based algorithm with local arm deletion to improve stability.
result Achieves Θ(log(T)) regret for markets with uniqueness consistency.
The paper analyzes and improves a deep learning optimization technique using matrix gradient orthogonality.
problem Improving deep learning training through more effective optimization methods.
method Develops a stochastic non-Euclidean trust-region gradient method for deep learning optimization.
result Proves state-of-the-art convergence results for the proposed algorithm in various scenarios.
Study proves NN matching is equivalent to Riesz regression for debiased machine learning.
problem Addressing bias in machine learning models.
method Interprets NN matching as Riesz regression and derives it from LSIF.
result NN matching is shown to be equivalent to Riesz regression.
The backpropagation (BP) algorithm is often thought to be biologically implausible in the brain. One of the main reasons is that BP requires symmetric weight matrices in the feedforward and feedback pathways. To address this "weight transport problem" (Grossberg, 1987), two more biologically plausible algorithms, propo…
This comment reexamines Simard et al.'s work in [D. Simard, L. Nadeau, H. Kroger, Phys. Lett. A 336 (2005) 8-15]. We found that Simard et al. calculated mistakenly the local connectivity lengths Dlocal of networks. The right results of Dlocal are presented and the supervised learning performance of feedforward neural n…