A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper introduces new risk norms based on ES with flexible distortion functions.
We present a scalable, black box, perception-in-the-loop technique to find adversarial examples for deep neural network classifiers. Black box means that our procedure only has input-output access to the classifier, and not to the internal structure, parameters, or intermediate confidence values. Perception-in-the-loop…
A new formula reveals symmetries between mean excess and ES functions.
ES-Single uses ES to estimate gradients in unrolled graphs, reducing variance and improving performance.
We introduce ES-MAML, a new framework for solving the model agnostic meta learning (MAML) problem based on Evolution Strategies (ES). Existing algorithms for MAML are based on policy gradients, and incur significant difficulties when attempting to estimate second derivatives using backpropagation on stochastic policies…
Introduces Lambda Expected Shortfall as a risk measure generalizing ES.
This paper introduces a novel theoretically sound approach for the celebrated CMA-ES algorithm. Assuming the parameters of the multi variate normal distribution for the minimum follow a conjugate prior distribution, we derive their optimal update at each iteration step. Not only provides this Bayesian framework a justi…
A new method for calculating ES from VaR under Solvency II.
Black-box optimization is primarily important for many compute-intensive applications, including reinforcement learning (RL), robot control, etc. This paper presents a novel theoretical framework for black-box optimization, in which our method performs stochastic update with the implicit natural gradient of an exponent…
This paper introduces novel backtests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) following the testing idea of Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969). Estimating a regression framework for the ES stand-alone is infeasible, and thus, our tests are based on a joint regression for the Value at Risk and the ES, which allows for dif…
Contextual policy search (CPS) is a class of multi-task reinforcement learning algorithms that is particularly useful for robotic applications. A recent state-of-the-art method is Contextual Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategies (C-CMA-ES). It is based on the standard black-box optimization algorithm CMA-ES…
Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticised for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES is less straightforward…
Expected Shortfall (ES) is the average return on a risky asset conditional on the return being below some quantile of its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up to 2019, places new attention on ES, but unlike VaR, there is little existing wo…
Investors who optimize their portfolios under any of the coherent risk measures are naturally led to regularized portfolio optimization when they take into account the impact their trades make on the market. We show here that the impact function determines which regularizer is used. We also show that any regularizer ba…
This paper presents analytical solutions to the problem of how to calculate sensible VaR (Value-at-Risk) and ES (Expected Shortfall) contributions in the CreditRisk+ methodology. Via the ES contributions, ES itself can be exactly computed in finitely many steps. The methods are illustrated by numerical examples.
Finite energy solutions of 4-harmonic and ES-4-harmonic maps are trivial.
New axioms justify ES without NRC, linking it to mean-ES portfolio selection.
Small hypersphere is unstable in both 4-harmonic and ES-4-harmonic settings.
This paper extends exponential smoothing to distributional time series using Wasserstein distance.
We introduce new forecast encompassing tests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES). The ES currently receives much attention through its introduction into the Basel III Accords, which stipulate its use as the primary market risk measure for the international banking regulation. We utilize joint loss functions fo…
Investigates diversification quotient based on VaR and ES for portfolio models.
We propose minimum regret search (MRS), a novel acquisition function for Bayesian optimization. MRS bears similarities with information-theoretic approaches such as entropy search (ES). However, while ES aims in each query at maximizing the information gain with respect to the global maximum, MRS aims at minimizing the…
Due to their prevalence, time series forecasting is crucial in multiple domains. We seek to make state-of-the-art forecasting fast, accessible, and generalizable. ES-RNN is a hybrid between classical state space forecasting models and modern RNNs that achieved a 9.4% sMAPE improvement in the M4 competition. Crucially, …
The paper introduces ESE scores for farmers to assess climate change risks.
Unified framework for ensemble sampling in nonlinear contextual bandits with provable regret bounds.
Evolution Strategies (ES) emerged as a scalable alternative to popular Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques, providing an almost perfect speedup when distributed across hundreds of CPU cores thanks to a reduced communication overhead. Despite providing large improvements in wall-clock time, ES is data inefficient whe…
CAESar improves risk forecasting by combining VaR and ES estimates.
Evolution Strategies (ES) are a powerful class of blackbox optimization techniques that recently became a competitive alternative to state-of-the-art policy gradient (PG) algorithms for reinforcement learning (RL). We propose a new method for improving accuracy of the ES algorithms, that as opposed to recent approaches…
Evolution strategy (ES) has been shown great promise in many challenging reinforcement learning (RL) tasks, rivaling other state-of-the-art deep RL methods. Yet, there are two limitations in the current ES practice that may hinder its otherwise further capabilities. First, most current methods rely on Monte Carlo type …
ES reduces high-probability regret in stochastic linear bandits.
ES improves training efficiency by dynamically selecting data samples.
Paper proposes a joint quantile regression for VaR and ES forecasting.
DBNs improve ES and SES estimation for market risk, but tail behavior remains challenging.
A new method tests Expected Shortfall by analyzing both duration and severity of VaR violations.
A new method for backtesting ES forecasts in banking.
ES-MLP combines Graph-MLP with edge splitting for node classification on both homophilic and heterophilic graphs.
The study of higher order energy functionals was first proposed by Eells and Sampson in 1965 and, later, by Eells and Lemaire in 1983. These functionals provide a natural generalization of the classical energy functional. More precisely, Eells and Sampson suggested the investigation of the so-called -energy funct…
This paper revisits the Bayesian CMA-ES and provides updates for normal Wishart. It emphasizes the difference between a normal and normal inverse Wishart prior. After some computation, we prove that the only difference relies surprisingly in the expected covariance. We prove that the expected covariance should be lower…
We explore the use of Evolution Strategies (ES), a class of black box optimization algorithms, as an alternative to popular MDP-based RL techniques such as Q-learning and Policy Gradients. Experiments on MuJoCo and Atari show that ES is a viable solution strategy that scales extremely well with the number of CPUs avail…
In this paper we shall assume that the ambient manifold is a space form and we shall consider polyharmonic hypersurfaces of order (briefly, -harmonic), where is an integer. For this class of hypersurfaces we shall prove that, if , then any -harmonic hypersurface must be minima…
We introduce a novel regression framework which simultaneously models the quantile and the Expected Shortfall (ES) of a response variable given a set of covariates. This regression is based on a strictly consistent loss function for the pair quantile and ES, which allows for M- and Z-estimation of the joint regression …
ES-VAE models skeletal pose trajectories by removing nuisance factors.
This study improves tail risk forecasting by integrating overnight information into semi-parametric models.
In this work we show that Evolution Strategies (ES) are a viable method for learning non-differentiable parameters of large supervised models. ES are black-box optimization algorithms that estimate distributions of model parameters; however they have only been used for relatively small problems so far. We show that it …
New framework forecasts ES using weighted quantiles.
Historical (Stressed-) Value-at-Risk ((S)VAR), and Expected Shortfall (ES), are widely used risk measures in regulatory capital and Initial Margin, i.e. funding, computations. However, whilst the definitions of VAR and ES are unambiguous, they depend on input distributions that are data-cleaning- and Data-Model-depende…
Modern machine learning uses more and more advanced optimization techniques to find optimal hyper parameters. Whenever the objective function is non-convex, non continuous and with potentially multiple local minima, standard gradient descent optimization methods fail. A last resource and very different method is to ass…
A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected Shortfall (ES) components, to jointly estimate and forecast VaR and ES. The measu…