We explain a persistent cost-of-carry spread in EUA market and suggest ECB policy change.
problem Persistent cost-of-carry spread in EUA market.
method Cointegration analysis of EUA spread with credit spread and risk-free rate.
result Cointegration found between EUA spread, credit spread, and risk-free rate.
New models analyze how ECB's unconventional policies affect stock market volatility.
problem Analyzing the impact of ECB's unconventional policies on stock market volatility.
method Developed MEM with Asymmetry and Policy effects (MAP) models to separate base volatility from policy effects.
result Significant improvement in forecasting power after Expanded Asset Purchase Programme implementation.
We develop a general term structure framework taking stochastic discontinuities explicitly into account. Stochastic discontinuities are a key feature in interest rate markets, as for example the jumps of the term structures in correspondence to monetary policy meetings of the ECB show. We provide a general analysis of …
We study the role of co-jumps in the interest rate futures markets. To disentangle continuous part of quadratic covariation from co-jumps, we localize the co-jumps precisely through wavelet coefficients and identify statistically significant ones. Using high frequency data about U.S. and European yield curves we quanti…
The topological properties of interbank networks have been discussed widely in the literature mainly because of their relevance for systemic risk. Here we propose to use the Stochastic Block Model to investigate and perform a model selection among several possible two block organizations of the network: these include b…
Paper details how to smoothly transition from EONIA to ESTR without significant financial impact.
problem Transition from EONIA to ESTR impacts financial instruments, especially OTC derivatives.
method Detailed analysis of how clean discounting approach based on ESTR affects pricing of OIS, IRS, and XVAs.
result The transition to EONIA-free pricing framework is safe and consistent, ensuring complete elimination of EONIA.
Machine learning models predict housing prices using macroeconomic factors.
problem Predicting housing prices using macroeconomic data.
method Used machine learning (kNN and tree-bagging) on a dataset of macroeconomic factors.
result Machine learning models can predict housing prices with uncertainties better than existing index uncertainties.
New model improves European inflation and interest rate predictions.
problem Improving predictions of European inflation and interest rates.
method Stochastic, continuous time model with unique solution for valuation equation.
result Model performs better on market data from 2008 to 2015.
We present a novel hierarchical distance-dependent Bayesian model for event coreference resolution. While existing generative models for event coreference resolution are completely unsupervised, our model allows for the incorporation of pairwise distances between event mentions -- information that is widely used in sup…
Study compares empirical systemic risk with balance sheet risk in interbank networks.
problem Disentangling balance sheet risk from network effects in systemic risk.
method Generalised DebtRank dynamics and maximum-entropy approach to compare observed and expected systemic risk.
result Systemic risk levels are compatible but differ significantly during turbulent times.
Machine learning models outperform traditional econometric methods for forecasting term structure of government bonds
problem Forecasting the term structure of government bonds
method Combining traditional econometric models with neural network architectures
result Neural network models consistently outperform traditional models in both forecasting accuracy and portfolio performance
Adapts GRPO for off-policy RL, improving reward.
problem Improving training stability and efficiency in RL.
method Adapts GRPO to off-policy setting, uses clipped surrogate objectives.
result Off-policy GRPO outperforms on-policy GRPO in empirical tests.
Paper tackles efficient evaluation of natural stochastic policies in offline RL.
problem Efficiency issues in evaluating natural stochastic policies due to unknown evaluation policy.
method Derive efficiency bounds for tilting and modified treatment policies, propose nonparametric estimators.
result Proposed estimators attain efficiency bounds under lax conditions and enjoy partial double robustness.
New framework studies policy learning problems under data scarcity.
problem Learning improving policies when data is insufficient.
method Developed a mathematical framework for policy learning problems.
result Reduced policy learning problems to simpler ones in sample complexity.
New algorithms improve policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.
problem Off-policy stability and on-policy efficiency issues in policy evaluation.
method Introduced novel algorithms using oblique projection method.
result Demonstrated both off-policy stability and on-policy efficiency.
We study the problem of off-policy policy optimization in Markov decision processes, and develop a novel off-policy policy gradient method. Prior off-policy policy gradient approaches have generally ignored the mismatch between the distribution of states visited under the behavior policy used to collect data, and what …
Stabilizes policy optimization with off-policy data using divergence augmentation.
problem Premature convergence and instability in policy optimization with off-policy data.
method Incorporates Bregman divergence between behavior and current policies to ensure safe policy updates.
result Empirically shows better performance in data-scarce scenarios compared to other algorithms.
We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation in Markov decision processes. Off-policy evaluation is the task of evaluating the expected return of one policy with data generated by a different, behavior policy. Importance sampling is a technique for off-policy evaluation that re-weights off-policy returns to account…
New methods estimate policy value and gradients for deterministic policies from off-policy data.
problem Estimating policy value and gradients for deterministic policies from off-policy data.
method Proposed new doubly robust estimators based on kernelization approaches.
result Demonstrated a rate independent of horizon length for policy value and gradient estimation.
Study designs logging policies to minimize off-policy evaluation error.
problem Minimizing OPE error with logging policies for target policies.
method Characterizes reward-coverage tradeoff, proposes a unifying framework, derives optimal policies.
result Provides actionable guidance for firms choosing recommendation systems.
DSPI connects natural policy gradient to policy iteration, proving global convergence.
problem Optimizing policies in reinforcement learning.
method DSPI framework, combining smoothed policy iteration and natural policy gradient.
result DSPI achieves geometric convergence and optimal complexity for policy optimization.
POTEC tackles off-policy learning in large action spaces, improving effectiveness.
problem Existing OPL methods fail in large discrete action spaces due to bias or variance issues.
method Two-stage algorithm: cluster selection via policy-based approach, action selection via regression-based approach.
result POTEC provides substantial improvements in off-policy learning effectiveness, especially in large and structured action spaces.
Monotonic policy improvement and off-policy learning are two main desirable properties for reinforcement learning algorithms. In this paper, by lower bounding the performance difference of two policies, we show that the monotonic policy improvement is guaranteed from on- and off-policy mixture samples. An optimization …
Memory-efficient algorithm reduces variance in off-policy RL.
problem High variance in off-policy policy optimization.
method Memory-efficient, stochastically variance-reduced algorithm using off-policy samples.
result Empirically validated effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating a behaviour policy for use in Off-Policy Policy Evaluation (OPE) when the true behaviour policy is unknown. Via a series of empirical studies, we demonstrate how accurate OPE is strongly dependent on the calibration of estimated behaviour policy models: how precisely …
Extends OPE to evaluate policies using diverse logging data.
problem Evaluate policies using log data from different policies.
method Develops an OPE method for various logging policies.
result Method's predictions converge to true performance as sample size increases.
PS framework selects best policy from library for CSO problems.
problem Policy selection in CSO with heterogeneous performance across covariate space.
method PS framework constructs library of candidate policies and learns a meta-policy to select the best one.
result PS consistently outperforms best single policy in heterogeneous CSO problems.
Entropy regularization improves policy optimization in reinforcement learning.
problem Improving policy optimization in reinforcement learning.
method Entropy regularization is introduced to soften the greedy policy towards a more diverse softmax policy, leading to a continuously parameterized algorithm that interpolates between policy gradient and Q-learning.
result An intermediate algorithm can improve performance in reinforcement learning.
New method optimizes treatment policies to avoid winner's curse.
problem Winner's curse in treatment policy optimization.
method Inference-aware policy optimization.
result Optimizes for both estimated performance and downstream evaluation.
PBVFs generalize across policies using learned value functions.
problem RL algorithms forget information about old policies when updating value functions to track the learned policy.
method Introduce Parameter-Based Value Functions (PBVFs) that include policy parameters in their inputs, enabling them to generalize across different policies.
result PBVFs enable zero-shot learning of new policies that outperform any policy seen during training.
Optimizes Thompson sampling policies using policy gradient methods.
problem Improving Thompson sampling in bandit problems.
method Applies policy gradient algorithms to optimize Thompson sampling policies.
result Direct policy search on Thompson sampling improves performance.
Study optimizes portfolio allocation policies using off-policy data and constraints.
problem Optimizing portfolio allocation policies under constraints using off-policy data.
method Solves a minimax objective with off-policy estimators and online learning to control constraint violations.
result Constructs near-optimal allocation policies for various regimes of operation and constraints.
This paper extends off-policy reinforcement learning to the multi-agent case in which a set of networked agents communicating with their neighbors according to a time-varying graph collaboratively evaluates and improves a target policy while following a distinct behavior policy. To this end, the paper develops a multi-…
This paper introduces a new method to evaluate multiple policies simultaneously.
problem Estimating the value of many policies for a single set of states.
method Developed a scalable, differentiable fingerprinting mechanism to represent complex policies.
result The method can produce policies that outperform those that generated the training data, in zero-shot manner.
The paper interprets policy-gradient algorithms using continuation theory.
problem Optimizing nonconvex functions in reinforcement learning.
method Formulates policy optimization as optimization by continuation, interprets policy-gradient algorithms as implicitly optimizing deterministic policies.
result Exploration in policy-gradient algorithms is seen as computing a continuation of the return of the policy.
We study the problem of off-policy critic evaluation in several variants of value-based off-policy actor-critic algorithms. Off-policy actor-critic algorithms require an off-policy critic evaluation step, to estimate the value of the new policy after every policy gradient update. Despite enormous success of off-policy …
This work analyzes the gap between off-policy and on-policy policy gradient methods and provides conditions to reduce this gap.
problem The gap between off-policy and on-policy policy gradient methods and conditions to reduce it.
method Theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of conditions to reduce the on-off gap.
result Conditions to reduce the on-off gap between off-policy and on-policy policy gradient methods.
We make policy optimization algorithms batch size-invariant by decoupling proximal and behavior policies.
problem Some policy optimization algorithms do not have batch size-invariance, leading to inefficiencies.
method We decouple the proximal policy from the behavior policy to achieve batch size-invariance.
result Our approach makes policy optimization algorithms more efficient and allows them to use stale data more effectively.
Improves reinforcement learning stability and efficiency.
problem Combining stability and efficiency in reinforcement learning.
method Combines on-policy stability with off-policy sample reuse.
result Demonstrates improved performance in both theory and practice.
RPO uses past and future state-action info for better policy optimization.
problem Sample inefficiency in on-policy reinforcement learning methods.
method Reflective Policy Optimization (RPO) integrates past and future state-action info for policy improvement.
result RPO improves policy performance and contracts the solution space, leading to faster convergence.
New algorithm stabilizes RL policy learning through divergence regularization.
problem Stabilize policy learning and improve performance in RL.
method Proximity term constraining discounted state-action visitation distributions to be close to each other.
result Proposed algorithm improves stability and final performance in RL tasks.
Framework improves policy generalizability under biased training data.
problem Learning policies that generalize to a target population from biased training data.
method Characterizes sample selection bias using a selection variable, optimizes minimax value over uncertainty set, derives efficient algorithm.
result Policies generalize to target population, outperform standard methods.
Hybrid RL algorithm combines offline and online data for robust and efficient policy learning.
problem Combining robust on-policy methods with efficient offline data for hybrid RL.
method Integrates off-policy training on offline data into on-policy NPG framework.
result Achieves state-of-the-art theoretical guarantees and maintains on-policy NPG guarantees.
New method learns policies from past data.
problem Learning decision policies from experience.
method Fully Probabilistic Design (FPD) formalism for stochastic policy finding.
result Proposes a new approach for policy learning.
Policy gradient methods with aggregated states can achieve better performance than approximate policy iteration.
problem Approximation errors in policy and value function approximations.
method State-aggregated representations and policy gradient methods.
result Policy gradient methods can achieve a per-period regret bounded by ε, while approximate policy iteration and value iteration have a higher regret.
This work improves policy-based training by proposing an evaluation balance objective for GFlowNets.
problem Reliable estimation of policy divergence under directed acyclic graphs remains challenging.
method Proposes an evaluation balance objective over partial episodes to measure policy divergence and improve policy-based training reliability.
result Evaluation balance strengthens policy-based training reliability and broadens its flexibility.
Paper tackles efficient policy gradient estimation from off-policy data.
problem Estimating policy gradients from off-policy data is challenging and inefficient.
method Derives asymptotic lower bounds, proposes a meta-algorithm with 3-way robustness, and establishes convergence guarantees.
result Meta-algorithm achieves the lower bound on mean-squared error without parametric assumptions.
Paper proposes FPG algorithm for unbiased off-policy PG estimation.
problem Challenges in off-policy policy gradient estimation.
method Double Fitted PG estimation (FPG) algorithm for arbitrary policy parameterization.
result Empirically, FPG significantly outperforms existing methods.