Study analyzes Bayesian inference algorithms using dynamical functional approach.
problem Analysis of approximate inference algorithms for large Gaussian latent variable models.
method Dynamical functional approach to model nontrivial dependencies and obtain exact effective stochastic process.
result Closed-form expressions for the rate of convergence are derived and validated.
Stable deep models learn dynamical systems with formal stability guarantees.
problem Difficulties in making formal claims about stability of deep network dynamics models.
method Jointly learning a dynamics model and Lyapunov function to ensure non-expansiveness.
result Proposes an approach for stable deep learning of dynamical systems.
SINDy-PI robustly identifies implicit dynamics from noisy data.
problem Accurately modeling nonlinear dynamics from noisy data.
method Parallel, implicit SINDy algorithm with multiple optimization algorithms and model selection.
result Significantly more noise robust than previous SINDy approaches.
This research develops an evolutionary approach to discover non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Discovering explicit governing equations of stochastic dynamical systems with Lévy noise from data.
method ESSR approach using genetic programming, sparse regression, and nonlocal Kramers-Moyal formulas.
result The approach effectively extracts non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical systems from sample path data.
Dynamic functional time-series methods improve forecast accuracy for foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces.
problem Forecasting implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets.
method Dynamic functional principal component analysis and multivariate functional time-series methods.
result Dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy.
New approach to concentration inequalities for unbounded state space dynamical systems.
problem Concentration inequalities for unbounded state space dynamical systems.
method Functional analytic framework, transport-entropy inequality.
result Exponential concentration inequalities for sampling from stationary distribution.
STCA discovers dynamic functional brain networks using spatial-temporal convolution and attention.
problem Lack of dynamic exploration of functional brain networks.
method Spatial-Temporal Convolutional Attention (STCA) model.
result STCA can discover dynamic functional brain networks in a novel way.
New model tackles complex spatio-temporal causal inference with dynamic confounders and functional data.
problem Complex spatio-temporal dynamics and unmeasured confounders hinder causal inference.
method PFD-BDCM, a unified generative framework for spatio-temporal dependencies, functional data, and dynamic confounding.
result PFD-BDCM outperforms existing methods across observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries.
Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) describes the problem of learning an unknown reward function of a Markov Decision Process (MDP) from observed behavior of an agent. Since the agent's behavior originates in its policy and MDP policies depend on both the stochastic system dynamics as well as the reward function, the …
We describe and analyze some novel approaches for studying the dynamics of Ising spin glass models. We first briefly consider the variational approach based on minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between independent trajectories and the real ones and note that this approach only coincides with the mean field equ…
In this paper, we analyze dynamic programming as a novel approach to solve the problem of maximizing the profits of a bank. The mathematical model of the problem and the description of a bank's work is described in this paper. The problem is then approached using the method of dynamic programming. Dynamic programming m…
In unsupervised learning, there is no apparent straightforward cost function that can capture the significant factors of variations and similarities. Since natural systems have smooth dynamics, an opportunity is lost if an unsupervised objective function remains static during the training process. The absence of concre…
A new method reduces complexity in estimating dynamic choice models.
problem Estimating structural parameters in dynamic discrete choice models using behavioral data.
method Two-stage approach: inverse reinforcement learning for Q-function estimation, state selection via clustering, and maximum likelihood estimation with nested fixed-point algorithm.
result The method mitigates the curse of dimensionality and provides finite-sample bounds on estimation error.
The paper addresses uncertainty in demand prediction for dynamic pricing.
problem Uncertainty quantification in the demand function for dynamic pricing.
method Developed a debiased approach to construct accurate confidence intervals for the demand function.
result Asymptotic normality guarantee of the debiased estimator for the demand function.
Framework optimizes battery storage for markets by separating long-term degradation from short-term market dynamics.
problem Intractable computation due to timescale mismatch between battery degradation and market dynamics.
method Approximate dynamic programming with value function approximation and pseudo-time encoding.
result Policy outperforms benchmarks in real-time market scenarios.
Hybrid model improves forest growth predictions.
problem Misspecified assumptions in mechanistic models.
method Forest Informed Neural Networks (FINN) combining DVM and DNN.
result DNN learned improved growth process functional form.
Extracts causal brain dynamics across multiple scales.
problem Statistical associations do not reflect causal mechanisms in brain dynamics.
method Multiscale causal backbone (MCB) extraction using advanced causal structure learning.
result Sparse MCBs reveal distinct causal roles at different brain frequency bands.
We study the dynamics of the vector field on an open surface given by the gradient of a Green's function. This dynamical approach enables us to show that this field induces an invariant decomposition of the surface as the union of a disk and a 1-skeleton that encodes the topology of the surface. We analyze the structur…
Model learns evolving network relationships over time.
problem Dimension reduction for dynamic network data.
method Metric functional space for vector-valued functions.
result Effective link prediction and role identification in dynamic networks.
New method for estimating treatment effects without complex propensity models.
problem Estimating treatment effects in dynamic treatment regimes.
method Recursive Riesz representer estimation for de-biasing corrections.
result Directly estimates de-biasing corrections without auxiliary models.
RSF models censored functional data for better survival analysis.
problem Modeling survival trajectories with censored data.
method Random Survival Forest for Censored Functional Data (RSF).
result Good performance in predicting survival variables.
SDIFT generates full-field dynamics from sparse, irregular data.
problem Modeling and reconstructing physical dynamics from sparse, off-grid observations.
method SDIFT uses a functional Tucker model and sequential diffusion for generating full-field evolution from irregular sparse observations.
result Significant improvements in reconstruction accuracy and computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art approaches.
The paper addresses GP dynamics by improving simulation and prediction accuracy.
problem GP dynamics often underestimate prediction uncertainty, leading to safety issues.
method The paper introduces sampling-based and linearization-based techniques to account for the correlation between successive function evaluations.
result The proposed methods provide more accurate trajectory distributions and prediction uncertainties.
We explain the main concepts of Prospect Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory within the framework of rational dynamic asset pricing theory. We derive option pricing formulas when asset returns are altered with a generalized Prospect Theory value function or a modified Prelec weighting probability function and introdu…
New method integrates sparse parametric and nonparametric techniques for complex system modeling.
problem Lack of accurate modeling for complex biological systems due to nonlinearities.
method Sparse nonparametric estimation framework combining parametric and nonparametric techniques.
result Accurately captures nonlinearities in complex systems without prior information.
We develop an approach to learn an interpretable semi-parametric model of a latent continuous-time stochastic dynamical system, assuming noisy high-dimensional outputs sampled at uneven times. The dynamics are described by a nonlinear stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by a Wiener process, with a drift evolu…
AR model forecasts partially observed dynamical time series by estimating evolution function and imputing missing variables.
problem Forecasting dynamical time series with missing variables.
method Autoregressive with slack time series (ARS) model.
result ARS model forecasts future time series with time-invariant and linear assumptions.
A new method for reinforcement learning that adapts to different domains using auxiliary classifiers.
problem Training reinforcement learning agents to perform well in different domains with varying dynamics.
method Learning auxiliary classifiers to distinguish source-domain from target-domain transitions and modifying the reward function accordingly.
result The approach improves transfer performance in reinforcement learning tasks with varying dynamics.
Proposes a probabilistic digital twin for dynamical systems using sparse Bayesian learning.
problem Creating and updating accurate digital twins for complex dynamical systems.
method Sparse Bayesian machine learning, two approaches: input-output and output-only.
result Identifies correct perturbation terms and associated parameters in dynamical systems.
New RL approach learns dynamic VCG mechanisms in unknown MDP environments.
problem Learning dynamic VCG mechanisms in unknown MDP environments.
method Reward-free online RL for exploration, combined with function approximation.
result Regret bound of O~(T2/3) for dynamic VCG mechanism learning. Novel F2NARX model improves surrogate modeling for stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Challenges in constructing accurate and efficient surrogate models for stochastic dynamical systems.
method Function-on-Function Nonlinear AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs (F2NARX) combining PCA and Gaussian process regression.
result F2NARX outperforms state-of-the-art NARX models in efficiency and accuracy.
A new model explains relative spreads between economies using dynamic Nelson-Siegel and functional regression.
problem Analyzing and predicting relative spreads between economies in fixed income markets.
method State-space functional regression model incorporating dynamic Nelson-Siegel model and kernel PCA.
result The new model outperforms the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model in explaining relative spreads.
Optimizes basis functions for learning dynamical systems from data.
problem Learning suitable basis functions for dynamical systems from data.
method Gradient-based optimization framework for learning basis functions.
result Efficacy demonstrated on various benchmark problems.
Dynamic functional connectivity (FC) has in recent years become a topic of interest in the neuroimaging community. Several models and methods exist for both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and electroencephalography (EEG), and the results point towards the conclusion that FC exhibits dynamic changes. The e…
The paper uses LSM to solve complex monetary utility functions.
problem Computing dynamic monetary utility functions with high dimensions.
method Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm.
result LSM algorithm successfully applied to recursive Cost-of-Capital valuation.
Stabilizes complex systems using diffusion models trained on Lyapunov functions.
problem Generating stabilizing controllers for complex dynamical systems.
method Trains a diffusion model on pairs of asymptotically stable vector fields and their Lyapunov functions to identify the closest stable field and adjust control functions.
result Efficient and rapid stabilization of unseen systems, showcasing generalizability.
We describe the elements of a novel structural approach to classical field theory, inspired by recent developments in perturbative algebraic quantum field theory. This approach is local and focuses mainly on the observables over field configurations, given by certain spaces of functionals which are studied here in dept…
Neural FGP learns portfolio generating functions from data.
problem Portfolio optimisation challenges in estimating drifts and covariances.
method Neural network approach to learn G(⋅) from market data. result Neural FGP outperforms classical benchmarks.
Paper proposes a method to estimate multiple dynamic quantiles jointly.
problem Limited joint estimation of multiple dynamic quantiles.
method Introduces a crossing penalty objective function for joint estimation.
result Validation through Monte Carlo experiments and empirical application on FTSE100 shows effectiveness.
We consider the two problems of predicting links in a dynamic graph sequence and predicting functions defined at each node of the graph. In many applications, the solution of one problem is useful for solving the other. Indeed, if these functions reflect node features, then they are related through the graph structure.…
Paper uses DRL for dynamic pricing on e-commerce platforms.
problem Dynamic pricing on e-commerce platforms.
method Deep reinforcement learning, Markov Decision Process (MDP), continuous price sets, difference of revenue conversion rates (DRCR).
result DRCR is a more appropriate reward function than revenue.
Quantum approach models economic decisions with probabilistic and dynamic probabilities.
problem Traditional economic models fail to explain recent financial crises.
method Develops a quantum probabilistic framework for economics.
result Quantum circuits can model cognitive phenomena like preference reversal.
Universal online optimization for dynamic environments using uniclass prediction.
problem Online optimization in changing environments with dynamic regret.
method Reduces dynamic online optimization to uniclass prediction problem, allowing control over dynamic regret bounds.
result First paper with state-of-the-art dynamic regret guarantees for general convex cost functions.
Geometric tempering fails for Langevin dynamics, proving convergence limits.
problem Proving convergence and limitations of geometric tempering for Langevin dynamics.
method Theoretical investigation of geometric tempering using Langevin dynamics.
result Geometric tempering can lead to exponential time convergence and poor functional inequalities.
A new method for learning gradient flows from population dynamics.
problem Reconstructing population dynamics from limited data.
method Residual approach to enforce continuity equations, combining with data-fitting divergence.
result Demonstrated state-of-the-art performance across trajectory inference benchmarks.
Proposes neural dynamic mode decomposition for end-to-end modeling of nonlinear dynamics.
problem Understanding and modeling nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Trains neural networks to minimize forecast error based on spectral decomposition in the lifted space.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in eigenvalue estimation and forecast performance.
Unified framework detects dynamic community structure in brain networks across individuals.
problem Detecting community structure in functional brain networks across multiple subjects and over time.
method Markov-switching stochastic block model (MSS-SBM) for multilayer brain networks.
result Captures dynamic reconfiguration of modular connectivity in brain networks across different task conditions.
We propose a simple discrete time semi-supervised graph embedding approach to link prediction in dynamic networks. The learned embedding reflects information from both the temporal and cross-sectional network structures, which is performed by defining the loss function as a weighted sum of the supervised loss from past…