A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new ranking model with dynamic covariates improves statistical analysis.
problem Statistical ranking with varying covariates across comparisons.
method Introduced a Plackett--Luce framework for covariate-assisted ranking, providing conditions for model identifiability and MLE existence, and developing an alternating maximization algorithm.
result Uniform consistency of the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) under suitable assumptions on graph design and covariates.
The salient properties of large empirical covariance and correlation matrices are studied for three datasets of size 54, 55 and 330. The covariance is defined as a simple cross product of the returns, with weights that decay logarithmically slowly. The key general properties of the covariance matrices are the following…
Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms are used in many areas, including tracking and navigation, medical applications, and financial trend filtering. One of the basic assumptions required to apply the Kalman smoothing framework is that error covariance matrices are known and given. In this paper, we study a general…
Anisotropic data structure affects learning dynamics and generalization error in linear networks.
problem Understanding the impact of data anisotropy on learning dynamics and generalization error in linear networks.
method Examined a spiked covariance structure as a model of anisotropy in a two-layer linear network in a linear regression setting.
result Learning dynamics proceed in two phases: initially driven by input-output correlation, then by other principal directions of the data structure. Derived an analytical expression for the generalization error.
Dynamic paired comparison models, such as Elo and Glicko, are frequently used for sports prediction and ranking players or teams. We present an alternative dynamic paired comparison model which uses a Gaussian Process (GP) as a prior for the time dynamics rather than the Markovian dynamics usually assumed. In addition,…
Study shows how mini-batch GD with random reshuffling affects least squares regression dynamics.
problem Analyzing the error dynamics of mini-batch GD with random reshuffling for least squares regression.
method Represented training and generalization errors through a sample cross-covariance matrix Z, compared with sample covariance matrix of original features X, and used linear scaling rule for analysis.
result Mini-batch GD with random reshuffling exhibits subtle step-size dependence not detectable by gradient flow analysis, converging to a limit dependent on the step size.
The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To addr…
We implement gradient-based variational inference routines for Wishart and inverse Wishart processes, which we apply as Bayesian models for the dynamic, heteroskedastic covariance matrix of a multivariate time series. The Wishart and inverse Wishart processes are constructed from i.i.d. Gaussian processes, existing var…
We present a unified derivation of covariant time derivatives, which transform as tensors under a time-dependent coordinate change. Such derivatives are essential for formulating physical laws in a frame-independent manner. Three specific derivatives are described: convective, corotational, and directional. The covaria…
We introduce a stochastic process with Wishart marginals: the generalised Wishart process (GWP). It is a collection of positive semi-definite random matrices indexed by any arbitrary dependent variable. We use it to model dynamic (e.g. time varying) covariance matrices. Unlike existing models, it can capture a diverse …
Paper analyzes Langevin dynamics for multimodal Gaussian mixtures, controlling errors across dimensions.
problem Challenges in obtaining stable diffusion-based samplers in high- and infinite-dimensional settings.
method Study of preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics (ALD) for Gaussian mixtures, focusing on Euler-Maruyama (EM) and exponential-integrator schemes.
result Proves dimension-uniform KL bounds for the exponential-integrator scheme, allowing arbitrarily small divergence with dimension.
We consider a multi-armed bandit problem in a setting where each arm produces a noisy reward realization which depends on an observable random covariate. As opposed to the traditional static multi-armed bandit problem, this setting allows for dynamically changing rewards that better describe applications where side inf…
We formulate and study a general family of (continuous-time) stochastic dynamics for accelerated first-order minimization of smooth convex functions. Building on an averaging formulation of accelerated mirror descent, we propose a stochastic variant in which the gradient is contaminated by noise, and study the resultin…
The aim of this work is to build financial crisis indicators based on spectral properties of the dynamics of market data. After choosing an optimal size for a rolling window, the historical market data in this window is seen every trading day as a random matrix from which a covariance and a correlation matrix are obtai…
We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for the elements of the factor loadings matrix pulls loadings on superfluous factors…