AR model forecasts partially observed dynamical time series by estimating evolution function and imputing missing variables.
problem Forecasting dynamical time series with missing variables.
method Autoregressive with slack time series (ARS) model.
result ARS model forecasts future time series with time-invariant and linear assumptions.
The paper introduces a fast algorithm for learning and forecasting nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
problem Challenges in capturing nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
method A projected nonlinear state-space model with kernel functions applied to projected lines.
result The model effectively learns and forecasts complex nonlinear dynamics with computational efficiency.
Improved Granger causality method for dynamic time series data.
problem Traditional Granger causality method assumes constant causalities, failing to model dynamic causalities.
method Dynamic window-level Granger causality (DWGC) method with causality indexing.
result Improved DWGC method better detects window-level causalities.
Proposes GDTW for aligning time series on different, incomparable spaces.
problem Dynamic time warping requires comparable spaces, but time series can live on different, incomparable spaces.
method Gromov dynamic time warping (GDTW) considers intra-relational geometry to avoid comparability requirements.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of GDTW in aligning, combining, and comparing time series on incomparable spaces.
DeepEDM forecasts time series by learning dynamics from embeddings.
problem Precise future prediction of complex nonlinear time series.
method Integrates nonlinear dynamical systems modeling with deep neural networks.
result DeepEDM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accuracy.
Analyzes Indian commercial dynamism using time series data.
problem Understanding commercial dynamism in India.
method Time series analysis of various economic indicators.
result Detailed insights into growth rate, trade balance, etc.
DArtNet predicts time series data using graph structure and dynamic attributes.
problem Predicting time series data using graph structure and dynamic attributes.
method DArtNet learns static and dynamic embeddings for graph nodes and encodes history information using RNN for joint link and attribute prediction.
result Improved time series prediction accuracy on five datasets.
We propose a new approach for properly analyzing stochastic time series by mapping the dynamics of time series fluctuations onto a suitable nonequilibrium surface-growth problem. In this framework, the fluctuation sampling time interval plays the role of time variable, whereas the physical time is treated as the analog…
Dynamic functional time-series methods improve forecast accuracy for foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces.
problem Forecasting implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets.
method Dynamic functional principal component analysis and multivariate functional time-series methods.
result Dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy.
Motion Code models time series dynamics with sparse approximations.
problem Challenges in time series classification and forecasting on noisy data.
method Motion Code views time series as stochastic processes, assigning unique signatures to distinct dynamics.
result Motion Code outperforms benchmarks in noisy datasets, including real-world Parkinson's disease tracking.
Study forecasts stock returns on JSE using SGDLMs capturing cross-series dependencies.
problem Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series data.
method Simultaneous Graphical Dynamic Linear Models (SGDLMs) with customised DLMs and importance sampling/mean-field variational Bayes.
result SGDLMs accurately forecast stock data on JSE and respond to market changes.
Quantum model generates complex time series data with preserved temporal dynamics.
problem Generating synthetic time series data with temporal correlations.
method Quantum Hamiltonian learning to encode temporal dynamics.
result The proposed quantum model captures unique temporal features of the learned time series.
Proposes iVDFM for identifying latent factors in multivariate time series.
problem Identifying latent factors in multivariate time series with structural dynamics.
method Identifiable Variational Dynamic Factor Model (iVDFM) with iVAE-style conditioning.
result Identifiable latent factors up to permutation and component-wise affine transformations.
Paper models non-linear dynamics from time series data.
problem Modeling non-linear dynamical systems from time series data.
method Introduces latent state modeling and a novel alternating minimization algorithm.
result LaNoLem achieves competitive performance in dynamics estimation and prediction.
GDM models time series with smoother transitions and interpretable states.
problem Capturing smooth, variable-speed transitions and stochastic mixtures of states.
method Introduces a continuous relaxation of discrete states and a Gumbel noise model.
result Models real-world datasets more faithfully with smoother dynamics and interpretable states.
KNF uses Koopman theory to forecast time series with changing dynamics.
problem Temporal distributional shifts in time series data.
method KNF combines DNNs with Koopman theory to learn dynamic operators.
result KNF outperforms alternatives on time series datasets with distributional shifts.
We propose a new method for clustering multivariate time-series data based on Dynamic Linear Models. Whereas usual time-series clustering methods obtain static membership parameters, our proposal allows each time-series to dynamically change their cluster memberships over time. In this context, a mixture model is assum…
Proposes a method to forecast non-stationary time series.
problem Challenges of non-stationary conditional distributions in deep learning.
method Bayesian dynamic model + deep conditional distribution model.
result Adapts to non-stationary time series better than state-of-the-art solutions.
Bayesian method clusters time series with varying dynamics.
problem Modeling and clustering time series with unknown number of clusters and dynamics.
method Hierarchical Dirichlet process and Gaussian process for modeling time series patterns and variations.
result Efficiently clusters time series with varying dynamics without unnecessary proliferation of clusters.
A new clustering method for vector time series using autoregressive dynamics.
problem Clustering of vector time series based on their dynamics is challenging.
method System identification approach using mixture autoregressive models.
result Developed a computationally manageable algorithm k-LMVAR for clustering vector time series.
Dynamic Time Warping improves regression accuracy on spectroscopy data.
problem Improving regression accuracy on spectroscopy data with DTW when data is across multiple wavelengths.
method Illustrated DTW's effectiveness on spectroscopy time-series data, showing its benefits in improving regression accuracy when only a single wavelength is considered. DTW combined with k-Nearest Neighbour reveals similarities and differences at the time-series level.
result DTW improves regression accuracy on spectroscopy data, especially when considering a single wavelength.
Method learns dynamics from sparse, irregular feature data.
problem Learn system dynamics from sparse, irregularly sampled feature time series.
method Formulates as high-dimensional linear regression using signatures.
result Oracle bound on prediction error with explicit sampling dependencies.
NCDSSM models irregularly sampled time series with improved imputation and forecasting.
problem Accurate modeling of irregularly sampled time series with missing observations.
method Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) with amortized inference for auxiliary variables and flexible dynamic state parameterizations.
result Improved imputation and forecasting performance on multiple benchmark datasets.
DDD reformulated for sparse matrices, integrating trajectory and snapshot time series data.
problem Efficiently integrate trajectory and snapshot time series data.
method Reformulate DDD to use compact basis functions, reducing parameter scaling.
result Inference of sparse matrices reduces the number of parameters in DDD.
Examines predictability and complexity of economic time series using symbolic dynamics and entropy.
problem Understanding the predictability and complexity of economic time series.
method Symbolic dynamics and Information theory (entropy and uncertainty).
result Economic time series are complex and can be expressed in terms of information production.
Algorithm detects lead-lag relationships in multivariate time series.
problem Understanding temporal dependencies between time series.
method Cluster-driven methodology based on dynamic time warping.
result Robust detection of lead-lag relationships in lagged multi-factor models.
VSDN models sporadic time series with neural SDEs.
problem Modeling irregular and sparse time series data.
method Variational Bayesian method and neural SDEs.
result VSDNs outperform state-of-the-art models in prediction and interpolation.
Starting from a dataset with input/output time series generated by multiple deterministic linear dynamical systems, this paper tackles the problem of automatically clustering these time series. We propose an extension to the so-called Martin cepstral distance, that allows to efficiently cluster these time series, and a…
Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.
problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.
This study uses persistent homology to analyze complex transitional networks from time series data.
problem Lack of effective tools to summarize complex topology in transitional networks.
method Persistent homology from topological data analysis applied to coarse-grained state-space networks (CGSSN).
result CGSSN improves dynamic state detection and noise robustness compared to other methods.
A new framework for generating predictive features in noisy multivariate time series.
problem Predicting noisy multivariate time series with limited user effort.
method Develops a feature programming framework based on spin-gas dynamical Ising models.
result Validated the method on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Study predicts synchronization state of financial time series using cross-recurrence plots.
problem Predicting the state of synchronization of financial time series.
method Cross-correlation analysis and deep learning framework for predicting synchronization state based on cross-recurrence plots.
result Satisfactory performance in predicting synchronization state for certain pairs of stocks.
A method to improve time series forecasting by dynamically adjusting weights of forecasters.
problem Challenges in time series forecasting due to evolving data distributions.
method Dynamic re-weighting of forecasters based on evolving data distributions.
result Competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods for combining forecasters.
New neural networks with variable time constants for better time-series prediction.
problem Improving neural network performance in time-series prediction.
method Constructing networks of linear dynamical systems modulated by nonlinear gates, using numerical differential equation solvers.
result Liquid Time-Constant Networks (LTCs) yield superior performance on time-series prediction tasks.
Predicting unobserved bifurcations in time series with unsupervised parameter extraction.
problem Predicting system behavior with unknown parameters from time series data.
method Reservoir computing framework for unsupervised extraction of slowly varying system parameters.
result Model predicts unknown bifurcations not present in training data.
Proposes a deep generative model for robust forecasting on sparse multivariate time series.
problem Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series with suboptimal results when sparsity is high.
method Dynamic Gaussian Mixture distribution for modeling latent clusters, using neural networks and gating mechanism.
result Demonstrates robust modeling of sparse multivariate time series with improved accuracy.
ACSSM models irregular time series with continuous dynamics.
problem Modeling irregular time series data.
method ACSSM uses a multi-marginal Doob's h-transform and variational inference with stochastic optimal control.
result ACSSM outperforms in tasks like classification, regression, interpolation, and extrapolation.
This paper improves forecasts for diverse time series by averaging similar ones.
problem Forecasting challenges in heterogeneous time series.
method Dynamic Time Warping to find similar time series, k-Nearest Neighbor averaging.
result Averaging improves forecasts of simple models.
DAMNETS generates complex network dynamics models.
problem Generating flexible and scalable models for network time series is challenging.
method Deep autoregressive model for Markovian network time series.
result DAMNETS outperforms other methods in sample quality.
KTVGL models tensor time series data for interpretable dynamic network estimation.
problem Estimating time-varying dependencies in multi-mode tensor time series data.
method Kronecker Time-Varying Graphical Lasso (KTVGL) for mode-specific dynamic network estimation.
result KTVGL produces interpretable modeling results and higher edge estimation accuracy than existing methods.
PULSE learns representations from physiological time series.
problem Lack of effective pretraining objectives for physiological time series.
method Proposes a pretraining framework exploiting dynamical systems generative model.
result PULSE learns representations that distinguish semantic classes and improve transfer learning.
Proposes a new model to better handle overdispersed count time series.
problem Heterogeneous overdispersed count time series.
method Negative-Binomial Randomized Gamma Markov Process.
result Significantly improves predictive performance and fast convergence of inference algorithm.
Amortized Causal Discovery learns to infer causal graphs from time-series data, improving performance.
problem Inference of causal graphs from time-series data is inefficient due to fitting new models for each sample.
method Proposes Amortized Causal Discovery, a variational model that leverages shared dynamics across samples with different causal graphs.
result Significant improvements in causal discovery performance demonstrated experimentally.
BrainCast predicts whole-brain fMRI time series from short scans.
problem Short scans reduce fMRI data quality and statistical power.
method Spatio-temporal forecasting framework for fMRI time series.
result BrainCast improves fMRI time series quality and prediction.
New method predicts graph structure changes over time.
problem Existing graph prediction methods assume static vertices, limiting their applicability.
method Combines time series prediction with adapted FBA for growing graphs.
result Efficacy demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.
New method clusters financial time series into volatility regimes.
problem Finding the number of volatility regimes in nonstationary financial time series.
method Change point detection and clustering of segment distributions.
result Optimized trading strategy based on learned volatility regimes.
Linear dynamical systems are a fundamental and powerful parametric model class. However, identifying the parameters of a linear dynamical system is a venerable task, permitting provably efficient solutions only in special cases. This work shows that the eigenspectrum of unknown linear dynamics can be identified without…
We use standard deep neural networks to classify univariate time series generated by discrete and continuous dynamical systems based on their chaotic or non-chaotic behaviour. Our approach to circumvent the lack of precise models for some of the most challenging real-life applications is to train different neural netwo…