Neural Processes combine the strengths of neural networks and Gaussian processes to achieve both flexible learning and fast prediction in stochastic processes. However, a large class of problems comprises underlying temporal dependency structures in a sequence of stochastic processes that Neural Processes (NP) do not e…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “Dynamic Processes”
Proposes LDIDPs for efficient sequential data generation from latent dynamical models.
problem Challenges in generating high-fidelity sequential samples from latent dynamical models.
method Utilizes implicit diffusion processes to sample from latent dynamical processes.
result Demonstrates accurate learning of dynamics and efficient generation of high-quality sequential data.
New method learns spatiotemporal dynamics from random point process observations.
problem Challenges in modeling spatiotemporal dynamics from randomly collected data.
method Integration of neural differential equations, neural point processes, implicit neural representations, and amortized variational inference.
result Significant improvements in predictive accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing methods.
New method learns dynamical systems efficiently using active learning.
problem Efficiently learning dynamical systems from data.
method Active learning strategies leveraging Gaussian process regression.
result Data-efficient training of the model through exploratory sampling.
dynoGP uses deep Gaussian processes for dynamic system identification.
problem System identification for complex dynamical systems.
method Interconnecting linear dynamic GPs and static GPs to model dynamic and static nonlinearities.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the approach using both simulated and real-world data.
This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights in the linear combination is modelled by another linear Gaussian dynamical model…
Ensembles dynamic models using random feature approximations.
problem Online scalable Bayesian learning with dynamic models and ensembling.
method Random feature approximations and dynamic models using random walks.
result Better performance with alternative basis expansions like Hilbert space Gaussian processes.
Machine learning infers time-reversible dynamics from data.
problem Learn time-reversible dynamics constrained by initial and final conditions.
method Machine learning algorithms solve boundary value problems for deterministic and stochastic dynamics.
result Inferred time-reversible dynamics for various types of systems.
Proposes DLGPD model to learn dynamics from images for planning.
problem Planning in unknown, indirectly observable environments.
method Deep latent Gaussian process dynamics model trained jointly with neural networks.
result Demonstrates improved data efficiency and transfer learning.
Study dynamic Pareto-optimal allocations in multi-period economies with time-consistent risk measures.
problem Optimal allocation in multi-period pure-exchange economies with stochastic endowments and time-consistent risk measures.
method Introduced dynamic Pareto-optimal allocation processes and derived recursive and comonotone improvement theorems.
result Dynamic Pareto-optimal allocation processes can be constructed recursively and are comonotone.
We introduce, in continuous time, an axiomatic approach to assign to any financial position a dynamic ask (resp. bid) price process. Taking into account both transaction costs and liquidity risk this leads to the convexity (resp. concavity) of the ask (resp. bid) price. Time consistency is a crucial property for dynami…
Many complex dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. Our Bayesian nonparametric approach utilizes a hiera…
Improved meta-learning for dynamics using additional structured knowledge.
problem Meta-learning for dynamics with limited raw observations.
method Extended Neural ODE Process model to use privileged information.
result Improved accuracy and calibration on simulated dynamics tasks.
Paper introduces a new model for cyber insurance pricing.
problem Inaccurate pricing of cyber insurance due to multiple, contagious losses.
method Developed a bivariate compound dynamic contagion process.
result Analytical expressions for the compound process and its moments.
How can we effectively encode evolving information over dynamic graphs into low-dimensional representations? In this paper, we propose DyRep, an inductive deep representation learning framework that learns a set of functions to efficiently produce low-dimensional node embeddings that evolves over time. The learned embe…
Extends Hawkes process for flexible residual modeling in point processes.
problem Modeling high-frequency financial data with complex residual distributions.
method Introduces self and mutually exciting point process with discretely Markovian dynamics.
result Flexible residual distributions improve intensity modeling and high-frequency data estimation.
New method reduces sample complexity for learning Ising model dynamics exponentially.
problem Learning binary graphical models from correlated samples produced by a dynamical process.
method Two estimators based on interaction screening objective and conditional likelihood loss.
result Sample complexity reduces exponentially for samples from a dynamical process far from equilibrium.
Variational autoencoder models dynamic latent graphs for neural point processes.
problem Modeling event dynamics with changing trends over time.
method Sequential latent variable model with dynamic latent graphs.
result Higher accuracy in predicting inter-event times and event types.
Researchers develop a new SMC sampler for Wishart processes to improve dynamic covariance inference.
problem Challenging inference of dynamic covariance in various scientific fields.
method Introduce Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for the Wishart process.
result SMC sampling provides more robust estimates and out-of-sample predictions of dynamic covariance.
Modeling interacting objects with latent Gaussian process ODEs.
problem Time uncertainty-aware modeling of continuous-time dynamics of interacting objects.
method A new model using latent Gaussian process ordinary differential equations to infer independent dynamics and interactions.
result Our model improves long-term predictions and successfully encapsulates independent dynamics and interactions.
We develop an approach to learn an interpretable semi-parametric model of a latent continuous-time stochastic dynamical system, assuming noisy high-dimensional outputs sampled at uneven times. The dynamics are described by a nonlinear stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by a Wiener process, with a drift evolu…
Risk measures applied to dynamic Markov processes with varying risk aversion.
problem Investigating dynamic risk measures in Markov decision processes with varying risk aversion.
method Distributional viewpoint on law-invariant convex risk measures, applied to Markov decision processes with latent costs and random actions.
result Existence of optimal policies in finite and infinite time horizons under mild assumptions.
Hybrid model improves forest growth predictions.
problem Misspecified assumptions in mechanistic models.
method Forest Informed Neural Networks (FINN) combining DVM and DNN.
result DNN learned improved growth process functional form.
Improves predictions by integrating forward-looking views into dynamic factor models.
problem Poor forecasts from historical data when dynamics change.
method Combines historical data with forward-looking views using a dynamic factor model.
result Derives optimal portfolio strategies influenced by both myopic and intertemporal factors.
A new method uses higher-order Langevin dynamics with critical damping for better generative modeling.
problem Improving generative models using Langevin dynamics with auxiliary variables.
method Introducing higher-order Langevin dynamics with critical damping, providing closed-form solutions.
result Improved generative models with better performance as measured by FID metric.
Learning Time-Varying Multi-Region Brain Communications via Scalable Markovian Gaussian Processescs.LG
New method learns dynamic brain communication patterns across regions.
problem Current methods struggle with time-varying brain communications and scalability.
method Adaptive Delay Model (ADM) using Markovian Gaussian Processes.
result Captures dynamic neural communication patterns over time.
Gaussian processes for dynamical systems with Koopman equivariance.
problem Forecasting and learning representations of nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Koopman-equivariant Gaussian processes with linear time-invariant responses and trajectory-based equivariance.
result Enhanced forecasting performance compared to kernel-based methods.
We study the forward price dynamics in commodity markets realized as a process with values in a Hilbert space of absolutely continuous functions defined by Filipović. The forward dynamics are defined as the mild solution of a certain stochastic partial differential equation driven by an infinite dimensional Lévy proces…
DEMOTE uses neural diffusion-reaction processes to capture temporal dynamics in sparse tensor data.
problem Sparse and temporally associated tensor data with limited structural knowledge.
method Develops a neural diffusion-reaction process to estimate dynamic embeddings for tensor modes.
result Captures both commonalities and personalities in evolving tensor entries.
ETGPSSM efficiently models high-dimensional, non-stationary systems with reduced complexity.
problem Prohibitive computational and parametric complexity in high-dimensional, non-stationary dynamical systems.
method ETGPSSM integrates a single shared GP with input-dependent normalizing flows for scalable and flexible modeling.
result ETGPSSM outperforms existing models in computational efficiency and accuracy.
A framework models order book dynamics using point processes and mass transport.
problem Capturing the complex dynamics of limit order books.
method Combines spatial point process for order flow and mass transport operator for market clearing.
result Provides insights into the interplay between order flow and price dynamics.
For large-scale industrial processes under closed-loop control, process dynamics directly resulting from control action are typical characteristics and may show different behaviors between real faults and normal changes of operating conditions. However, conventional distributed monitoring approaches do not consider the…
We develop dependent hierarchical normalized random measures and apply them to dynamic topic modeling. The dependency arises via superposition, subsampling and point transition on the underlying Poisson processes of these measures. The measures used include normalised generalised Gamma processes that demonstrate power …
We propose dynamical systems trees (DSTs) as a flexible class of models for describing multiple processes that interact via a hierarchy of aggregating parent chains. DSTs extend Kalman filters, hidden Markov models and nonlinear dynamical systems to an interactive group scenario. Various individual processes interact a…
A Dynamics-Informed Gaussian Process Framework for 2D Stochastic Navier-Stokes via Quasi-Gaussianitymath.DS
New framework uses dynamics to justify Gaussian process for turbulent flows.
problem Lack of rigorous justification for Gaussian process priors in turbulent flows.
method Introduces a dynamics-informed Gaussian process framework based on quasi-Gaussianity.
result Provides a principled, long-time dynamical justified GP prior for turbulent flows.
Proposes a Gaussian process model for constrained dynamics learning.
problem Challenges in identifying constrained dynamics of mechanical systems.
method Combines analytical mechanics with Gaussian process regression.
result Improves data efficiency and constraint integrity in predictions.
Develops a method to model neural dynamics with flexible yet interpretable latent states.
problem Capturing complex nonlinear dynamics in neural time series while maintaining interpretability.
method Gaussian Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (gpSLDS) that balances expressiveness and interpretability.
result Favorable performance in comparison to rSLDS on synthetic and real neuroscience data.
A Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equation framework for large continuous dynamical systems
problem Forecasting complex dynamical systems
method Kernel autonomous ODE approach based on Gaussian Processes and Quadratic Order Model Reduction
result Full model outperforms ROM methods in terms of accuracy or computational costs
Develops quantile diffusions for risk analysis in continuous time.
problem Stochastic dynamics of quantiles in continuous time.
method Construction of quantile processes through composite maps of distribution and quantile functions.
result Powerful method for interpreting quantile process characteristics in terms of model parameters.
Machine learning and excited-state molecular dynamicsphysics.chem-ph
Machine learning aids excited-state molecular dynamics studies.
problem Challenges in studying electronically excited states of molecules.
method Employing machine learning techniques for excited-state molecular dynamics.
result Highlight successes and challenges in machine learning for excited-state processes.
In this paper, we analyze dynamic programming as a novel approach to solve the problem of maximizing the profits of a bank. The mathematical model of the problem and the description of a bank's work is described in this paper. The problem is then approached using the method of dynamic programming. Dynamic programming m…
The Bivariate Dynamic Contagion Processes (BDCP) are a broad class of bivariate point processes characterized by the intensities as a general class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. The BDCP describes a rich dynamic structure where the system is under the influence of both external and internal factors model…
This paper proposes a novel dynamic Hierarchical Dirichlet Process topic model that considers the dependence between successive observations. Conventional posterior inference algorithms for this kind of models require processing of the whole data through several passes. It is computationally intractable for massive or …
Framework for quantifying uncertainty in dynamic processes.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in dynamic stochastic processes.
method Define dynamic uncertainty sets and dynamic robust risk measures.
result Dynamic robust risk measures are time-consistent under specific uncertainty sets.
Working in a continuous time setting, we extend to the general case of dynamic risk measures continuous from above the characterization of time consistency in terms of ``cocycle condition'' of the minimal penalty function. We prove also the supermartingale property for general time consistent dynamic risk measures. Whe…
Solving statistical learning problems often involves nonconvex optimization. Despite the empirical success of nonconvex statistical optimization methods, their global dynamics, especially convergence to the desirable local minima, remain less well understood in theory. In this paper, we propose a new analytic paradigm …
Improved sample efficiency in reinforcement learning with deep Gaussian processes.
problem Efficiently learn to control actions with limited interaction data.
method Deep Gaussian processes that simulate dynamics with depth and prior knowledge.
result Significantly improved early sample efficiency across various tasks, including half-cheetah control.
Network embedding aims to embed nodes into a low-dimensional space, while capturing the network structures and properties. Although quite a few promising network embedding methods have been proposed, most of them focus on static networks. In fact, temporal networks, which usually evolve over time in terms of microscopi…