A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study compares empirical systemic risk with balance sheet risk in interbank networks.
New deep learning method improves financial stress testing accuracy.
A new XVA strategy rooted in balance sheet perspective improves equity process for bank shareholders.
In this work, we present a numerical method based on a sparse grid approximation to compute the loss distribution of the balance sheet of a financial or an insurance company. We first describe, in a stylised way, the assets and liabilities dynamics that are used for the numerical estimation of the balance sheet distrib…
Model shows how banks' hidden-to-maturity accounting can mask run risk and lead to financial instability.
Model predicts insolvency risks in banks due to liquidity and credit risks.
Study shows how financial report sentiment impacts bank profitability.
We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the effect of heterogeneous degree distributions, heterogeneous balance sheet size and…
A modern version of Monetary Circuit Theory with a particular emphasis on stochastic underpinning mechanisms is developed. It is explained how money is created by the banking system as a whole and by individual banks. The role of central banks as system stabilizers and liquidity providers is elucidated. It is shown how…
An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents is described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm dire…
Examines various types of cryptocurrencies and their economic properties.
A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing individual banks; associated with each node is a balance sheet consisting of assets and …
This paper uses PCA and FA for feature selection in credit rating.
This paper finds a new method for decomposing insurer profits and losses.
A robust machine learning approach forecasts U.S. Treasury yields, reducing risk for investors.
A growing body of studies on systemic risk in financial markets has emphasized the key importance of taking into consideration the complex interconnections among financial institutions. Much effort has been put in modeling the contagion dynamics of financial shocks, and to assess the resilience of specific financial ma…
The paper assesses VASPs' solvency using multiple data sources.
We formulate banks' capital optimization problem as a classic mean variance optimization, by leveraging an accurate linear approximation to the Shapely or Constrained Aumann-Shapley (CAS) allocation of max or nested max cost functions. This reduced form formulation admits an analytical solution, to the optimal leverage…
Model shows how banks' fears of future defaults can cause immediate financial stress.
The global financial crisis, beginning in 2008, took an historic toll on national economies around the world. Following equity market crashes, unemployment rates rose significantly in many countries: Italy was among those. What will be the impact of such large shocks on Italian healthcare finances? An empirical model f…
Optimizes bank capital structure under Basel III constraints, simplifying complex dynamics.
We consider a model of financial contagion in a bipartite network of assets and banks recently introduced in the literature, and we study the effect of power law distributions of degree and balance-sheet size on the stability of the system. Relative to the benchmark case of banks with homogeneous degrees and balance-sh…
This paper reviews the economic and theoretical foundations of insolvency risk measurement and capital adequacy rules. The proposed new measure of insolvency risk is constructed by disentangling assets, debt and equity at the micro-prudential firm level. This new risk index is the Firm Insolvency Risk Index (FIRI) whic…
Compound interest as well as inflation grows exponentially with time, whereas other means to repay debt grow polynomially. For this and other, mostly political, reasons, debt without inflation is unsustainable. We suggest a discontinuous way to eliminate debt by nullifying it. This scenario is preferable to current cen…
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical "microscopic" theory of instability for financial networks by iterating balance sheet…
This systemic risk paper introduces inhomogeneous random financial networks (IRFNs). Such models are intended to describe parts, or the entirety, of a highly heterogeneous network of banks and their interconnections, in the global financial system. Both the balance sheets and the stylized crisis behaviour of banks are …
In this paper we present a novel approach for firm default probability estimation. The methodology is based on multivariate contingent claim analysis and pair copula constructions. For each considered firm, balance sheet data are used to assess the asset value, and to compute its default probability. The asset pricing …
I show the equivalence between a model of financial contagion and the threshold model of global cascades proposed by Watts (2002). The model financial network comprises banks that hold risky external assets as well as interbank assets. It is shown that a simple threshold model can replicate the size and the frequency o…
One of the main issues affecting the Italian NHS is the healthcare deficit: according to current agreements between the Italian State and its Regions, public funding of regional NHS is now limited to the amount of regional deficit and is subject to previous assessment of strict adherence to constraint on regional healt…
This article contains the first published example of a real economic balance sheet where the Solvency II ratio substantially depends on the seed selected for the random number generator (RNG) used. The theoretical background and the main quality criteria for RNGs are explained in detail. To serve as a gauge for RNGs, a…
Study finds significant BTC co-movements with equity markets, highlighting dynamic risk management needs.
Study introduces new financial ratios for better predicting company performance.
We use bank-level balance sheet data from 2005 to 2010 to study interactions within the banking system of five emerging countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Taiwan. For each country we construct a financial network based on the leverage ratio dependence between each pair of banks, and find results th…
We present a Hamiltonian framework for higher-dimensional vortex filaments (or membranes) and vortex sheets as singular 2-forms with support of codimensions 2 and 1, respectively, i.e. singular elements of the dual to the Lie algebra of divergence-free vector fields. It turns out that the localized induction approximat…
A new model predicts financial volatility across firms using spatial correlations.
A world sheet in anti-de Sitter space is a timelike submanifold consisting of a one-parameter family of spacelike submanifolds. We consider the family of lightlike hypersurfaces along spacelike submanifolds in the world sheet. The locus of the singularities of lightlike hypersurfaces along spacelike submanifolds forms …
In the Minkowski space-time, a world hyper-sheet is a timelike hypersurface consisting of a one-parameter family of spacelike submanifolds. Recently, Bousso and Randall introduced the notion of caustics of world hyper-sheets in order to define the notion of holographic domains in space-time. Here, we give a mathematica…
Study financial contagion and risk in sparse networks with directed edges.
Paper tackles score following in full-page sheet music images.
The paper explores the geometric properties of fluid flows and their symmetries.
The effect of self-default on the valuation of liabilities and derivatives (DVA) has been widely discussed but the effect on assets has not received similar attention. Any asset whose value depends on the status, or existence, of the firm will have a DVA. We extend (Burgard and Kjaer 2011) to provide a hedging strategy…
We consider a disk-shaped thin elastic sheet bonded to a compliant sphere. (Our sheet can slip along the sphere; the bonding controls only its normal displacement.) If the bonding is stiff (but not too stiff), the geometry of the sphere makes the sheet wrinkle to avoid azimuthal compression. The total energy of this sy…
The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly triggering each other through contagion. Although credit default swaps have radical…
Study models systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
One of the founding paradigms of machine learning is that a small number of variables is often sufficient to describe high-dimensional data. The minimum number of variables required is called the intrinsic dimension (ID) of the data. Contrary to common intuition, there are cases where the ID varies within the same data…
A world sheet in Lorentz-Minkowski space is a timelike submanifold consisting of a one-parameter family of spacelike submanifolds in Lorentz-Minkowski space. In this paper we investigate differential geometry of world sheets in Lorentz-Minkowski space as an application of the theory of big wave fronts.
Bayesian method for imputing actigraph data from mobile devices.
Study of adjoint orbits in simplest non-trivial Lie algebra case.