Model predicts VKA dosage for Indian patients, aiding in safe medication.
problem Safe and accurate dosing of VKA drugs for Indian patients.
method Support Vector Machine (SVM) Regression model trained on patient data.
result Predicted dosages closely match actual dosages.
Warfarin is one of the most commonly used oral blood anticoagulant agent in the world, the proper dose of Warfarin is difficult to establish not only because it is substantially variant among patients, but also adverse even severe consequences of taking an incorrect dose. Typical practice is to prescribe an initial dos…
Estimating what would be an individual's potential response to varying levels of exposure to a treatment is of high practical relevance for several important fields, such as healthcare, economics and public policy. However, existing methods for learning to estimate counterfactual outcomes from observational data are ei…
A new experimental design method for combinatorial interventions reduces complexity and improves accuracy.
problem Efficiently conducting all possible combinatorial interventions with multiple treatments and potential interactions.
method Probabilistic factorial experimental design, applying random combinations of treatments and adapting over multiple rounds.
result Optimal dosage of 1/2 for each treatment yields near-optimal design for estimating any k-way interaction model.
Current pharmaceutical formulation development still strongly relies on the traditional trial-and-error approach by individual experiences of pharmaceutical scientists, which is laborious, time-consuming and costly. Recently, deep learning has been widely applied in many challenging domains because of its important cap…
C3T-Budget optimizes drug efficacy in dose-finding trials with budget and safety constraints.
problem Heterogeneous patient populations and budget constraints make dose-finding clinical trials challenging.
method Contextual constrained clinical trial algorithm that maximizes drug efficacy while learning subgroup responses.
result Demonstrates efficient budget usage and balanced learning-treatment trade-off in simulated trials.
Automated system extracts medication regimens from medical conversations.
problem Extract relevant medication information from medical conversations.
method QA task approach, combined QA and Information Extraction, data augmentation, public embeddings, pretraining.
result Improved accuracy in extracting dosage and frequency from 54.28 and 37.13 to 89.57 and 45.94.
New method estimates effects of multiple nutrients on blood glucose.
problem Estimating physiological response to multiple nutrient treatments.
method Convolution-based multi-output Gaussian process model.
result Improved prediction accuracy and better interpretation of individual nutrient effects.
Oral Disintegrating Tablets (ODTs) is a novel dosage form that can be dissolved on the tongue within 3min or less especially for geriatric and pediatric patients. Current ODT formulation studies usually rely on the personal experience of pharmaceutical experts and trial-and-error in the laboratory, which is inefficient…
The introduction of data analytics into medicine has changed the nature of patient treatment. In this, patients are asked to disclose personal information such as genetic markers, lifestyle habits, and clinical history. This data is then used by statistical models to predict personalized treatments. However, due to pri…
In this paper we introduce the transductive linear bandit problem: given a set of measurement vectors X⊂Rd, a set of items Z⊂Rd, a fixed confidence δ, and an unknown vector θ∗∈Rd, the goal is to infer $\text{argmax}_{z\in \mathcal{Z}} z^\t…
Study efficient policy value estimation with sublinear samples.
problem Estimating optimal policy value in stochastic disjoint linear bandits.
method Sublinear sample estimation of optimal policy value.
result Achieves near optimal estimation error with sublinear samples.
We study the problem of finding the optimal dosage in early stage clinical trials through the multi-armed bandit lens. We advocate the use of the Thompson Sampling principle, a flexible algorithm that can accommodate different types of monotonicity assumptions on the toxicity and efficacy of the doses. For the simplest…
New framework for managing medical risks using convex responses.
problem Medical risk management and dosing optimization.
method Analyzes convex and concave dose-response functions, defines antifragility.
result Proposes a mathematical framework for integrating nonlinearities in oncology.
We consider the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem and the contextual bandit problem with historical observations and pre-clustered arms. The historical observations can contain any number of instances for each arm, and the pre-clustering information is a fixed clustering of arms provided as part of the input. We de…
New method predicts Alzheimer's risk with individual uncertainty estimates.
problem Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease.
method Persistent homology of clinical trajectories combined with stacking ensemble.
result Pipeline achieves high accuracy and individual-level uncertainty quantification.
Develops a new RL algorithm for medical treatment regimes.
problem Optimal dose determination in continuous action environments.
method Quasi-optimal learning algorithm for near-optimal actions.
result Guaranteed convergence and effectiveness in real applications.
Simulates sepsis treatment decisions using a world model approach.
problem Predicting optimal sepsis treatment actions based on noisy EHR data.
method Uses a Variational Auto-Encoder and Mixture Density Network (MDN-RNN) to model sepsis patient trajectories.
result Simulator learns from MIMIC dataset to predict patient states.
Gonogo offers tools for sensitivity experiments in R.
problem Conducting, analyzing, and simulating sensitivity experiments.
method Suite of R functions for various adaptive procedures.
result Achieving overlapping data and refining testing in distribution tails.
Study robust best-arm identification in linear bandits with lower bounds and algorithms.
problem Identify a near-optimal robust arm in linear bandits with adversarial actions.
method Propose instance-dependent lower bounds and both static and adaptive bandit algorithms.
result Sample complexity matches the lower bound and algorithms effectively identify robust arms.
Kernel method optimizes personalized dose rules for patients.
problem Finding optimal individualized dose rules for patients.
method Kernel assisted learning method for estimating optimal dose rules.
result The method identifies the optimal individualized dose rule and produces favorable outcomes.
Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from pharmacokinetic drug dosage allocation and personalized medicine to marketing mix (4Ps) recommendations -- require an understanding of the unobserved heterogeneity in order to develop the best decision making-processes. In this paper, we develop a hypothesis te…
Research evaluates data poisoning attacks on regression learning and introduces a new defense strategy.
problem Data poisoning attacks on regression learning threaten model integrity in critical systems.
method Realistic scenarios, novel black-box attack, and evaluation on 26 datasets.
result Mean squared error (MSE) increases to 150% with only 2% poisoned samples.
Paper uses GANs to estimate effects of continuous interventions.
problem Estimating effects of continuous interventions from observational data.
method SCIGAN model based on modified GAN framework.
result SCIGAN model estimates counterfactual outcomes for continuous interventions.
The challenge in controlling stochastic systems in which low-probability events can set the system on catastrophic trajectories is to develop a robust ability to respond to such events without significantly compromising the optimality of the baseline control policy. This paper presents CelluDose, a stochastic simulatio…
Deep RL controls anesthesia more accurately than traditional methods.
problem Controlling the level of unconsciousness during anesthesia.
method Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to map patient state to propofol dosage.
result Deep RL model outperformed traditional controllers (1.7% vs 3.4% median absolute performance error).
Bayesian framework for analyzing heterogeneous covariance data with a novel MoE-Wishart model.
problem Analyzing complex multivariate systems with varying covariance structures.
method Comprehensive Bayesian framework using mixture-of-experts Wishart model with predictor-dependent mixture weights.
result Accurate subpopulation recovery and estimation in heterogeneous covariance scenarios.
The paper proves an obstruction to immersed curves with specific curvature.
problem Existence of immersed curves with prescribed curvature.
method Proofs and corrections of submitted manuscript.
result An obstruction to the existence of immersed curves of prescribed curvature.
Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.
problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.
This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.
problem The relationship between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction.
method Systematic re-examination of conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction from a modern perspective.
result Conformal e-prediction has advantages such as ease of designing conditional predictors and guaranteed validity of cross-predictors.
Two new methods improve efficiency of conformal predictive systems.
problem Efficiency of conformal predictive systems in regression problems.
method Split conformal predictive systems and cross-conformal predictive systems.
result Cross-conformal predictive systems are more efficient but not guaranteed valid.
Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.
problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with confl…
Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.
problem Establishing valid prediction intervals in semantic feature spaces.
method Extends conformal prediction to semantic feature spaces using deep representation learning.
result Feature conformal prediction outperforms regular conformal prediction under mild assumptions.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…
AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.
problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.
problem Systematic bias in point predictions that undermines their use in decision-making.
method Develops Isotonic Conformal Prediction (ICP) framework to decouple calibration from prediction-set construction.
result SICP and TICP procedures match SC-CP coverage at lower computational cost.
Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.
problem Optimizing predictions for specific decision tasks of interest.
method Designs a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis.
result Derives efficient and interpretable solutions for various action parametrizations and loss functions.
New measures for prediction validity and consonant plausibility introduced.
problem Challenges in predicting future observations and quantifying prediction uncertainty.
method Introducing Type-2 validity and using consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
result Achieving both Type-1 and Type-2 validity through consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in random forest and boosted forest point predictions.
method 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in building prediction intervals.
FPPI selectively uses predictions to improve inference efficiency.
problem Improving statistical inference with limited labeled data and heterogeneous prediction quality.
method Filtered Prediction-Powered Inference (FPPI) framework.
result FPPI achieves strictly improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing methods.
COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.
problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.
Unified framework for estimating random forest prediction errors.
problem Estimating prediction errors for random forests.
method Novel estimator of conditional prediction error distribution function.
result Proposed estimators enable competitive prediction intervals.