arXiv research

Model predicts VKA dosage for Indian patients, aiding in safe medication.

Warfarin is one of the most commonly used oral blood anticoagulant agent in the world, the proper dose of Warfarin is difficult to establish not only because it is substantially variant among patients, but also adverse even severe consequences of taking an incorrect dose. Typical practice is to prescribe an initial dos…

Estimating what would be an individual's potential response to varying levels of exposure to a treatment is of high practical relevance for several important fields, such as healthcare, economics and public policy. However, existing methods for learning to estimate counterfactual outcomes from observational data are ei…

A new experimental design method for combinatorial interventions reduces complexity and improves accuracy.

Clinical trials in the medical domain are constrained by budgets. The number of patients that can be recruited is therefore limited. When a patient population is heterogeneous, this creates difficulties in learning subgroup specific responses to a particular drug and especially for a variety of dosages. In addition, pa…

Extracting relevant information from medical conversations and providing it to doctors and patients might help in addressing doctor burnout and patient forgetfulness. In this paper, we focus on extracting the Medication Regimen (dosage and frequency for medications) discussed in a medical conversation. We frame the pro…

Current pharmaceutical formulation development still strongly relies on the traditional trial-and-error approach by individual experiences of pharmaceutical scientists, which is laborious, time-consuming and costly. Recently, deep learning has been widely applied in many challenging domains because of its important cap…

New method estimates effects of multiple nutrients on blood glucose.

Oral Disintegrating Tablets (ODTs) is a novel dosage form that can be dissolved on the tongue within 3min or less especially for geriatric and pediatric patients. Current ODT formulation studies usually rely on the personal experience of pharmaceutical experts and trial-and-error in the laboratory, which is inefficient…

The introduction of data analytics into medicine has changed the nature of patient treatment. In this, patients are asked to disclose personal information such as genetic markers, lifestyle habits, and clinical history. This data is then used by statistical models to predict personalized treatments. However, due to pri…

In this paper we introduce the transductive linear bandit problem: given a set of measurement vectors $\mathcal{X}\subset \mathbb{R}^d$, a set of items $\mathcal{Z}\subset \mathbb{R}^d$, a fixed confidence $δ$, and an unknown vector $θ^{\ast}\in \mathbb{R}^d$, the goal is to infer $\text{argmax}_{z\in \mathcal{Z}} z^\t…

We study the problem of estimating the expected reward of the optimal policy in the stochastic disjoint linear bandit setting. We prove that for certain settings it is possible to obtain an accurate estimate of the optimal policy value even with a number of samples that is sublinear in the number that would be required…

We study the problem of finding the optimal dosage in early stage clinical trials through the multi-armed bandit lens. We advocate the use of the Thompson Sampling principle, a flexible algorithm that can accommodate different types of monotonicity assumptions on the toxicity and efficacy of the doses. For the simplest…

New framework for managing medical risks using convex responses.

We consider the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem and the contextual bandit problem with historical observations and pre-clustered arms. The historical observations can contain any number of instances for each arm, and the pre-clustering information is a fixed clustering of arms provided as part of the input. We de…

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition caused by the body's response to an infection. In order to treat patients with sepsis, physicians must control varying dosages of various antibiotics, fluids, and vasopressors based on a large number of variables in an emergency setting. In this project we employ a "world model" m…

New method predicts Alzheimer's risk with individual uncertainty estimates.

Develops a new RL algorithm for medical treatment regimes.

Gonogo offers tools for sensitivity experiments in R.

Study robust best-arm identification in linear bandits with lower bounds and algorithms.

Kernel method optimizes personalized dose rules for patients.

Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from pharmacokinetic drug dosage allocation and personalized medicine to marketing mix (4Ps) recommendations -- require an understanding of the unobserved heterogeneity in order to develop the best decision making-processes. In this paper, we develop a hypothesis te…

Research evaluates data poisoning attacks on regression learning and introduces a new defense strategy.

Paper uses GANs to estimate effects of continuous interventions.

The challenge in controlling stochastic systems in which low-probability events can set the system on catastrophic trajectories is to develop a robust ability to respond to such events without significantly compromising the optimality of the baseline control policy. This paper presents CelluDose, a stochastic simulatio…

Deep RL controls anesthesia more accurately than traditional methods.

Bayesian framework for analyzing heterogeneous covariance data with a novel MoE-Wishart model.

The paper proves an obstruction to immersed curves with specific curvature.

Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.

Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.

Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.

The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.

Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.

Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by conformal predictive systems may be useful, e.g., in decision making problems. Conf…

Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with confl…

Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…

AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.

Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.

ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.

Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.

This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, conformal e-prediction. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal prediction emerged as result of replacing e-values by p-values, it seemed to have imp…

RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.

FPPI selectively uses predictions to improve inference efficiency.

COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.

Most existing examples of full conformal predictive systems, split-conformal predictive systems, and cross-conformal predictive systems impose severe restrictions on the adaptation of predictive distributions to the test object at hand. In this paper we develop split-conformal and cross-conformal predictive systems tha…

This paper studies trade-offs in private prediction methods.