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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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183367550733 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Distributional Causal Inference

Paper constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.

problem Unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
method Constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
result Examples of unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.

The paper introduces a DRM for causal inference, offering a flexible method to analyze counterfactual distributions.

problem Estimating mean causal effects is limited; a distributional perspective is needed for a more thorough understanding.
method The paper employs a semiparametric density ratio model (DRM) with an empirical likelihood (EL) approach to estimate counterfactual distribution functions.
result The DRM framework enables direct and transparent causal inference from a distributional perspective, validated by numerical studies.

Bayesian causal inference method improves accuracy over traditional approaches.

problem Bayesian marginalisation over causal models is computationally infeasible.
method Decomposes structure marginalisation into causal orders and DAGs, using Gaussian processes for mechanisms and ARCO for orders.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art in structure learning and inference.

Variational Causal Networks approximate Bayesian inference over causal structures.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in causal structure inference from finite data.
method Parametric variational family over DAGs, using Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) for tractable learning.
result Approximation of the true posterior over DAGs is demonstrated to be good.

DoWhy-GCM extends causal inference in graphical models for diverse queries.

problem Addressing diverse causal queries in graphical causal models.
method Specify cause-effect relations via a causal graph, fit causal mechanisms, pose causal queries.
result Identification of root causes, attribution of causal influences, diagnosis of causal structures.

GANICE improves GAN-based causal inference by minimizing averaged Wasserstein risk.

problem Estimating interventional outcome distributions and quantiles in causal inference.
method GANICE uses extended Wasserstein distance and a cellwise critic to minimize averaged Wasserstein risk.
result GANICE achieves minimax optimality and consistently outperforms existing methods.

Paper extends causal inference to non-Euclidean data like images and distributions.

problem Causal inference for non-Euclidean data like images and distributions.
method Hilbert space embeddings, Fréchet mean estimation, nonparametric doubly-debiased causal inference.
result Validated approach for causal inference with continuous treatments on non-Euclidean data.

Causal inference from observational data is hard due to discontinuous causal effects.

problem Causal inference from observational data is hard due to discontinuous causal effects.
method The problem is tackled by showing that many standard point estimates can be read as point summaries of multimodal distributions over the space of structural causal models.
result Many standard point estimates can be discontinuous summaries, while explicit posterior means and medians are continuous.

Paper introduces geometry-aware normalizing flows for improved causal inference.

problem Disparity between sample and population distributions in causal inference.
method Integrates continuous normalizing flows with parametric submodels, employing Wasserstein gradient flows and optimal transport.
result Significantly reduces parameter estimation bias and variance in finite-sample settings.

A new diffusion model encodes causal structures for better interventional sampling and edge inference.

problem Lack of causal analysis in standard diffusion models.
method Causality-encoded diffusion framework that trains conditional models consistent with a directed acyclic graph.
result The method enables accurate interventional sampling and edge inference, with theoretical guarantees and practical applications.

Meta-learning model predicts intervention effects from uncertain causal graphs.

problem Estimating intervention effects when causal structures are uncertain.
method Model-Averaged Causal Estimation Transformer Neural Process (MACE-TNP) using meta-learning.
result MACE-TNP outperforms Bayesian baselines in predicting intervention distributions.

New tests for distributional causal effects using improved kernel estimators.

problem Testing for higher-order moments and multidimensional outcomes affected by treatment.
method Improved kernel estimators based on doubly robust mean embeddings.
result New permutation-based tests for distributional causal effects with improved convergence rates.

In this paper, we deal with the problem of inferring causal directions when the data is on discrete domain. By considering the distribution of the cause P(X)P(X) and the conditional distribution mapping cause to effect P(YX)P(Y|X) as independent random variables, we propose to infer the causal direction via comparing the di…

2018-03-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimates causal effects in Gaussian Linear SCMs with finite data.

problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with latent confounders.
method Centralized Gaussian Linear SCMs (CGL-SCMs) and EM-based estimation algorithm.
result Learned CGL-SCM parameters accurately recover causal distributions from finite observational samples.

Proposes a method to infer causal effects from incomplete data using latent confounders.

problem Missing data complicates causal inference, especially for non-linear models.
method Uses variational autoencoders to learn latent confounders and incorporate missing values.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the method, especially for non-linear models.

CInA method uses attention to improve causal inference.

problem Challenges in causal inference, especially in complex tasks.
method CInA method utilizes self-supervised causal learning with multiple unlabeled datasets and transformer-type architecture.
result CInA effectively generalizes to out-of-distribution datasets and various real-world datasets.

AR CI framework handles complex confounders and sequential actions.

problem Low-dimensional confounders and singleton actions in causal inference.
method Sequencification to transform data into sequences, enabling CI with complex confounders and sequential actions.
result AR model can estimate multiple causal quantities using a single model, simplifying inference and improving outcome prediction.

Causal discovery predicts unobserved joint statistics from observed data.

problem Inferring properties of unobserved joint distributions from observed data.
method Infer causal models from observed data to predict statistical properties of unobserved sets.
result Sparse causal graphs can be more useful than dense ones in predicting unobserved joint distributions.

Bayesian networks with hidden variables help identify causal relationships obscured by confounding.

problem Identifying causal relationships obscured by unobserved confounders.
method Use finite kk-mixtures of Bayesian networks with hidden variables to recover the joint probability distribution and identify causal relationships.
result First algorithm to learn mixtures of non-empty DAGs, recovering identifiable causal relationships.

Simplified identification methods for causal inference with arbitrary interventional distributions.

problem Estimating cause-effect relationships from data with experimental interventions.
method Using Single World Intervention Graphs and nested model factorization, we provide algorithms for identifying causal parameters from mixed observational and interventional distributions.
result Our algorithms are complete for certain types of interventional marginal distributions.

NeuralCSA uses neural networks to analyze causal effects under unobserved confounding.

problem Challenges in causal inference from observational data due to unobserved confounding.
method Proposes a neural framework (NeuralCSA) for generalized causal sensitivity analysis.
result Demonstrates theoretical and empirical validity of NeuralCSA for causal inference.

Generative Intervention Models predict perturbation effects without knowing the underlying mechanisms.

problem Predicting perturbation effects when the mechanisms are unknown.
method Generative Intervention Models (GIM) that map perturbation features to distributions over atomic interventions in a causal model.
result GIMs achieve robust out-of-distribution predictions and infer underlying perturbation mechanisms.

Modeling delayed Granger causality in Hawkes processes.

problem Capturing the time lag between causal events in multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Proposed a Hawkes process model with latent time lags, using Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) for inference.
result Identified and inferred time lags with posterior distributions, improving event prediction and root cause analysis.

Several methods exist to infer causal networks from massive volumes of observational data. However, almost all existing methods require a considerable length of time series data to capture cause and effect relationships. In contrast, memory-less transition networks or Markov Chain data, which refers to one-step transit…

2016-08-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops geometric causal models for causal inference from dependent data.

problem Causal inference from structured, dependent data (e.g., spatial, network, molecular).
method Geometric causal models (GCMs) exploiting symmetries of data generating process, combining group theory, ergodic theory, and Bayesian inference.
result Establishes identification and estimation of causal effects from dependent data.

We pose causal inference as the problem of learning to classify probability distributions. In particular, we assume access to a collection {(Si,li)}i=1n\{(S_i,l_i)\}_{i=1}^n, where each SiS_i is a sample drawn from the probability distribution of Xi×YiX_i \times Y_i, and lil_i is a binary label indicating whether "XiYiX_i \to Y_i" or …

2015-02-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible when only single observations are present. We develop a theory how to generate causal grap…

2008-04-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Symmetric observations don't necessarily imply symmetric causal explanations.

problem Inferring causal models from observed correlations is challenging and computationally intensive.
method An explicit example using a tripartite probability distribution over binary events.
result Symmetries in observations cannot be used to reduce the hypothesis space of causal models.

This work restricts hidden cardinality in causal models to infer causal relations.

problem Causal relations between variables with a common unobserved cause cannot be directly inferred.
method Derive inequality constraints from d-separation in causal models with known cardinalities of unobserved variables.
result Inference of causal relations is possible with additional assumptions about cardinalities.

CausalMix generates synthetic data with causal controls for mixed-type tables.

problem Synthetic data for causal inference with mixed-type and multimodal tabular data.
method CausalMix combines Gaussian latent priors with data-type-specific decoders for control over overlap, confounding, and treatment effect heterogeneity.
result CausalMix achieves state-of-the-art distributional metrics and stable causal control.

The relationship between statistical dependency and causality lies at the heart of all statistical approaches to causal inference. Recent results in the ChaLearn cause-effect pair challenge have shown that causal directionality can be inferred with good accuracy also in Markov indistinguishable configurations thanks to…

2014-12-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Frengression models causal data flexibly and faithfully.

problem Challenges in robust benchmarking and evaluation of causal inference with real-world data.
method Introduces frengression, a deep generative model for joint distribution of covariates, treatments, and outcomes.
result Frengression provides accurate estimation and flexible simulation of multivariate, time-varying data.

A new method learns causal structure from data using amortized inference.

problem Causal structure learning is a combinatorial search problem that is costly and difficult to design suitable scores or tests.
method Train a variational inference model to predict causal structure from data.
result Our inference model generalizes well to larger problem instances and outperforms existing algorithms, especially in genomics.