arXiv research

Introduces Star-Shaped deviation measures for risk analysis.

Paper characterizes monotonic mean-deviation risk measures.

In this paper we propose the notion of dynamic deviation measure, as a dynamic time-consistent extension of the (static) notion of deviation measure. To achieve time-consistency we require that a dynamic deviation measures satisfies a generalised conditional variance formula. We show that, under a domination condition,…

Proposes new deviation measures using Minkowski gauges.

In this paper we analyze a dynamic recursive extension of the (static) notion of a deviation measure and its properties. We study distribution invariant deviation measures and show that the only dynamic deviation measure which is law invariant and recursive is the variance. We also solve the problem of optimal risk-sha…

The paper establishes a connection between different risk measures and their risk contributions.

Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a way to speed up computations. This paper considers moderate deviations for the wei…

A new method to break down insurance costs into risk and uncertainty.

The paper explores optimal insurance contracts using various deviation measures.

Study large deviations and speed of random walks in hyperbolic spaces.

Proposes a new risk measurement method for risk-averse stochastic optimization.

Study examines large deviations in random walks on hyperbolic spaces.

We present the Shortfall Deviation Risk (SDR), a risk measure that represents the expected loss that occurs with certain probability penalized by the dispersion of results that are worse than such an expectation. SDR combines Expected Shortfall (ES) and Shortfall Deviation (SD), which we also introduce, contemplating t…

Utilizing recently introduced concepts from statistics and quantitative risk management, we present a general variant of Batch Normalization (BN) that offers accelerated convergence of Neural Network training compared to conventional BN. In general, we show that mean and standard deviation are not always the most appro…

How can we design safe reinforcement learning agents that avoid unnecessary disruptions to their environment? We show that current approaches to penalizing side effects can introduce bad incentives, e.g. to prevent any irreversible changes in the environment, including the actions of other agents. To isolate the source…

Study large deviations for hypoelliptic diffusion on sub-Riemannian manifolds.

We prove the first mathematical result relating the Yang-Mills measure on a compact surface and the Yang-Mills energy. We show that, at the small volume limit, the Yang-Mills measures satisfy a large deviation principle with a rate function which is expressed in a simple and natural way in terms of the Yang-Mills energ…

We propose an iterative scheme for feature-based positioning using a new weighted dissimilarity measure with the goal of reducing the impact of large errors among the measured or modeled features. The weights are computed from the location-dependent standard deviations of the features and stored as part of the referenc…

Due to their heterogeneity, insurance risks can be properly described as a mixture of different fixed models, where the weights assigned to each model may be estimated empirically from a sample of available data. If a risk measure is evaluated on the estimated mixture instead of the (unknown) true one, then it is impor…

New method uses Coulomb gases for Monte Carlo integration with reduced errors.

Simple conditions for comonotonic additive risk measures from acceptance sets.

Optimizes variance reduction in Heston model using large and moderate deviations.

The intuition of risk is based on two main concepts: loss and variability. In this paper, we present a composition of risk and deviation measures, which contemplate these two concepts. Based on the proposed Limitedness axiom, we prove that this resulting composition, based on properties of the two components, is a cohe…

New measures of asymmetry for triangles help evaluate electric power quality.

We obtain a large deviation function for the stationary measures of twisted Brownian motions associated to the Lagrangians $L_λ(p,v)=\frac{1}{2}g_{p}(v,v)- λω_{p}(v)$, where $g$ is a $C^{\infty}$ Riemannian metric in a compact surface $(M,g)$ with nonpositive curvature, $ω$ is a closed 1-form such that the Aubry-Mather…

We prove a large deviation principle for a sequence of point processes defined by Gibbs probability measures on a Polish space. This is obtained as a consequence of a more general Laplace principle for the non-normalized Gibbs measures. We consider three main applications: Conditional Gibbs measures on compact spaces, …

The investor is interested in the expected return and he is also concerned about the risk and the uncertainty assumed by the investment. One of the most popular concepts used to measure the risk and the uncertainty is the variance and/or the standard-deviation. In this paper we explore the following issues: Is the stan…

Paper uses Mirror Descent for efficient risk budgeting portfolios.

We consider the problem of defining the significance of an itemset. We say that the itemset is significant if we are surprised by its frequency when compared to the frequencies of its sub-itemsets. In other words, we estimate the frequency of the itemset from the frequencies of its sub-itemsets and compute the deviatio…

Statistical analysis of financial data most focused on testing the validity of Brownian motion (Bm). Analysis performed on several time series have shown deviation from the Bm hypothesis, that is at the base of the evaluation of many financial derivatives. We inquiry in the behavior of measures of performance based on …

We study random walks on groups with the feature that, roughly speaking, successive positions of the walk tend to be "aligned". We formalize and quantify this property by means of the notion of deviation inequalities. We show that deviation inequalities have several consequences including Central Limit Theorems, the lo…

The paper analyzes how a known density function can be deviated by a mixture distribution as more data is collected.

Optimal portfolios for fat-tailed risks using a new tail risk measure.

Develops a new risk measure for Markov chains' asymptotic behavior.

This paper presents new deviation inequalities that are valid uniformly in time under adaptive sampling in a multi-armed bandit model. The deviations are measured using the Kullback-Leibler divergence in a given one-dimensional exponential family, and may take into account several arms at a time. They are obtained by c…

Utility and risk are two often competing measurements on the investment success. We show that efficient trade-off between these two measurements for investment portfolios happens, in general, on a convex curve in the two dimensional space of utility and risk. This is a rather general pattern. The modern portfolio theor…

This work finds mixed equilibria in zero-sum games using interacting particle dynamics.

New Gini indices capture more nuanced income inequality.

The paper addresses risk sharing and variability measures among agents with general risk preferences.

This work proposes SDI regularization to improve adversarial robustness.

Process Monitoring involves tracking a system's behaviors, evaluating the current state of the system, and discovering interesting events that require immediate actions. In this paper, we consider monitoring temporal system state sequences to help detect the changes of dynamic systems, check the divergence of the syste…

Risk assessment under different possible scenarios is a source of uncertainty that may lead to concerning financial losses. We address this issue, first, by adapting a robust framework to the class of spectral risk measures. Second, we propose a Deviation-based approach to quantify uncertainty. Furthermore, the theory …

Improves risk and variability measures continuity and consistency.

We propose a robust risk measurement approach that minimizes the expectation of overestimation plus underestimation costs. We consider uncertainty by taking the supremum over a collection of probability measures, relating our approach to dual sets in the representation of coherent risk measures. We provide results that…

SAM improves generalization in overparameterized models, but its behavior in tensorized models is less understood.

Paper introduces AIF for anomaly detection with variable feature sensitivity.

In the present paper and the companion paper [9] a probabilistic (statistical-mechanical) approach to the construction of canonical metrics on a complex algebraic varieties X is introduced, by sampling "temperature deformed" determinantal point processes. The main new ingredient is a large deviation principle for Gibbs…

The standard deviation and Gini mean difference order based on tail behavior.