Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases that are hard to quantify. The latter enjoy asymptotic consistency, but can suffer …
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “Deterministic Inference”
We empirically evaluate a stochastic annealing strategy for Bayesian posterior optimization with variational inference. Variational inference is a deterministic approach to approximate posterior inference in Bayesian models in which a typically non-convex objective function is locally optimized over the parameters of t…
The seemingly stochastic transient dynamics of neocortical circuits observed in vivo have been hypothesized to represent a signature of ongoing stochastic inference. In vitro neurons, on the other hand, exhibit a highly deterministic response to various types of stimulation. We show that an ensemble of deterministic le…
New PDMP samplers improve BNN inference with accelerated computation.
problem Inference on Bayesian Neural Networks violates independence and posterior assumptions.
method Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process (PDMP) with adaptive thinning for inhomogenous Poisson Process (IPPs) sampling.
result PDMP samplers accelerate inference in BNNs, improving accuracy and mixing performance.
Deterministic Inference across Tensor Parallel Sizes That Eliminates Training-Inference Mismatchcs.LG
New method ensures consistent inference across different tensor parallel sizes for large language models.
problem Non-deterministic inference in large language models due to inconsistent reduction orders across GPUs.
method Tree-Based Invariant Kernels (TBIK) that align intra- and inter-GPU reduction orders through a unified hierarchical binary tree structure.
result Bit-wise identical results across different tensor parallel sizes for RL training.
Electrostatics method samples complex distributions deterministically.
problem Sampling and inference of complex, high-dimensional distributions.
method Electrostatics-based particle system with Newton mechanics principles.
result Method achieves comparable performance to other methods in benchmark tasks.
This paper presents a fast Bayesian filtering technique for state estimation.
problem Bottleneck in Bayesian inference for state estimation from noisy sensor data.
method Processor-native uncertainty tracking for uncertainty propagation and inference.
result Deterministic approximate filtering with up to 805x speedup and competitive accuracy.
Bayesian inference for expensive likelihoods using Langevin Monte Carlo with NF.
problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions with expensive likelihoods.
method Deterministic Langevin equation with NF gradient, Metropolis-Hastings updates.
result Competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
DADVI improves ADVI by using deterministic approximation for faster, more accurate posterior estimation.
problem Intractable posterior uncertainty estimates and lack of clear convergence criteria in ADVI.
method Replaces stochastic MFVB objective with deterministic Monte Carlo approximation (SAA) and uses second-order optimization.
result DADVI provides faster and more accurate posterior estimates with default settings.
Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear whether the fixed point identified by the variational inference algorithm is a local…
New method approximates diffusion process posteriors using moment functions.
problem Approximating posteriors of stochastic differential equations.
method Constructs variational process as controlled prior, approximates posterior with moment functions, uses natural gradient descent.
result Richer variational approximations for state-dependent diffusion terms.
A multi-layer deep Gaussian process (DGP) model is a hierarchical composition of GP models with a greater expressive power. Exact DGP inference is intractable, which has motivated the recent development of deterministic and stochastic approximation methods. Unfortunately, the deterministic approximation methods yield a…
The Infinite Relational Model (IRM) is a probabilistic model for relational data clustering that partitions objects into clusters based on observed relationships. This paper presents Averaged CVB (ACVB) solutions for IRM, convergence-guaranteed and practically useful fast Collapsed Variational Bayes (CVB) inferences. W…
Deterministic method for certifying neural network robustness.
problem Certifying neural network robustness against adversarial attacks.
method Equivalence between training and Gaussian averaging for robustness certification.
result Comparable certified accuracy and robustness to stochastic methods but with single model evaluation.
This paper presents studies on a deterministic annealing algorithm based on quantum annealing for variational Bayes (QAVB) inference, which can be seen as an extension of the simulated annealing for variational Bayes (SAVB) inference. QAVB is as easy as SAVB to implement. Experiments revealed QAVB finds a better local …
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes (VB) is theoretically grounded, generally applicable, and computationally effic…
Applying probabilistic models to reinforcement learning (RL) enables the application of powerful optimisation tools such as variational inference to RL. However, existing inference frameworks and their algorithms pose significant challenges for learning optimal policies, e.g., the absence of mode capturing behaviour in…
Ever since the proof of asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimator by Cramer (1946), it has been understood that a basic technique of the Taylor series expansion suffices for asymptotics of -estimators with smooth/differentiable loss function. Although the Taylor series expansion is a purely deterministic …
The highly variable dynamics of neocortical circuits observed in vivo have been hypothesized to represent a signature of ongoing stochastic inference but stand in apparent contrast to the deterministic response of neurons measured in vitro. Based on a propagation of the membrane autocorrelation across spike bursts, we …
We introduce the notion of a stochastic probabilistic program and present a reference implementation of a probabilistic programming facility supporting specification of stochastic probabilistic programs and inference in them. Stochastic probabilistic programs allow straightforward specification and efficient inference …
We consider two variables that are related to each other by an invertible function. While it has previously been shown that the dependence structure of the noise can provide hints to determine which of the two variables is the cause, we presently show that even in the deterministic (noise-free) case, there are asymmetr…
Optimal control of stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is a major challenge in the domain of robot learning. Given the intractability of the global control problem, state-of-the-art algorithms focus on approximate sequential optimization techniques, that heavily rely on heuristics for regularization in order to achi…
New method for efficient probabilistic deep state-space models.
problem Efficient inference for probabilistic deep state-space models.
method Deterministic inference algorithm for ProDSSM with neural network weights.
result Superior balance between predictive performance and computational budget.
Paper explores SVGD for Bayesian inference, linking deterministic and stochastic dynamics.
problem Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
method Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) with deterministic and stochastic dynamics.
result Identifies Stein-Fisher information as the leading order contribution in the long-time and many-particle regime.
Kernel methods estimate causal effects with a single proxy for deterministic confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects with a single proxy for an unobserved confounder.
method Two kernel-based methods: two-stage regression and maximum moment restriction.
result Both kernel methods can consistently estimate the causal effect.
PDMP samplers improve Bayesian PDE coefficient inference.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference in non-linear inverse problems with expensive likelihoods.
method Piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) with surrogate-assisted thinning.
result PDMP samplers achieve higher accuracy and efficiency than traditional methods.
Random scan CAVI converges linearly under log-concave assumptions.
problem Analyzing the convergence rate of random scan Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) under log-concave conditions.
method Building on previous work, we analyze the random scan version of CAVI using optimal transport geometry.
result We obtain tight linear convergence rates for the random scan version of CAVI.
Machine learning infers time-reversible dynamics from data.
problem Learn time-reversible dynamics constrained by initial and final conditions.
method Machine learning algorithms solve boundary value problems for deterministic and stochastic dynamics.
result Inferred time-reversible dynamics for various types of systems.
Variational Temperingstat.ML
Variational inference (VI) combined with data subsampling enables approximate posterior inference over large data sets, but suffers from poor local optima. We first formulate a deterministic annealing approach for the generic class of conditionally conjugate exponential family models. This approach uses a decreasing te…
We extend probabilistic programming to handle conditioning on marginal distributions.
problem Conditioning probabilistic programs on marginal distributions of observable variables.
method We define and implement stochastic conditioning, allowing inference in probabilistic programs conditioned on marginal distributions.
result We demonstrate the effectiveness of stochastic conditioning in various real-life scenarios.
Efficient inference for multimodal Gaussian mixture models of interacting dynamical systems.
problem Efficient inference for multimodal distributions in stochastic dynamical systems.
method Graph neural networks with moment matching for sample-free inference and structured covariance approximations.
result Sample-free inference with improved efficiency and stability compared to Monte Carlo alternatives.
Interpretable Bayesian Tensor Network Kernel Machines with Automatic Rank and Feature Selectionstat.ML
Bayesian TNKMs automatically infer model complexity and feature relevance.
problem Manual tuning of TN rank and feature dimensions is error-prone and computationally expensive.
method Bayesian approach with hierarchical priors on TN factors for automatic rank and feature selection.
result Superior performance in prediction accuracy, uncertainty quantification, interpretability, and scalability.
Hybrid Bayesian neural networks use function uncertainty for probabilistic inference.
problem Uncertainty in neural network weights is hard to specify and interpret.
method Integrates probabilistic layers with standard deterministic layers for function uncertainty.
result Improves probabilistic inference by encoding function uncertainty.
FM4PDE learns PDE solutions from sparse data.
problem Reconstructing PDE solutions from limited observations.
method Flow-matching generative framework that learns PDE coefficients and solutions.
result Error guarantees for guided procedures, including deterministic and stochastic samplers.
Learning Model Reparametrizations: Implicit Variational Inference by Fitting MCMC distributionsstat.ML
We introduce a new algorithm for approximate inference that combines reparametrization, Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational methods. We construct a very flexible implicit variational distribution synthesized by an arbitrary Markov chain Monte Carlo operation and a deterministic transformation that can be optimized…
Improved Bayesian neural network inference by selectively removing redundant modes.
problem Redundant modes in Bayesian neural network posteriors complicate approximate inference.
method Structured partial stochasticity and deterministic subset selection of weights.
result Improved performance of approximate inference schemes with simplified posterior distribution.
MPM-ParVI uses particle sampling for variational inference.
problem Variational inference for complex probabilistic models.
method Material Point Method (MPM) for particle-based simulation.
result Deterministic sampling and inference for intractable densities.
Zeroth-Order Policy Gradient for Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback without Reward Inferencecs.LG
Paper develops methods to optimize policies directly from human feedback without reward inference.
problem Challenges in RLHF, including reward model overfitting and distribution shift.
method Develops two algorithms for RLHF without reward inference, using zeroth-order gradient approximators.
result Establishes polynomial convergence rates and outperforms existing methods in numerical experiments.
New method uses model's generalization gap to predict membership inference attacks.
problem Predicting membership inference attacks on machine learning models.
method Uses the model's generalization gap as a metric to estimate the vulnerability to membership inference attacks.
result Demonstrates that the model's generalization gap provides an upper bound on MIA security.
PIVID infers DAG structures from data using variational inference and permutations.
problem Estimating the structure of Bayesian networks from observational data.
method PIVID uses variational inference and continuous relaxations of discrete distributions to infer a distribution over permutations and DAGs.
result PIVID outperforms deterministic and Bayesian approaches in estimating DAG structures from data.
VB-DeepONet uses Bayesian inference to improve DeepONet's predictions and uncertainty quantification.
problem Overfitting and lack of uncertainty quantification in DeepONet.
method Variational Bayes approach to approximate posterior distribution, reducing computational cost.
result VB-DeepONet alleviates DeepONet's limitations and provides uncertainty quantification.
SPH-ParVI uses fluid dynamics to sample unknown densities efficiently.
problem Sampling partially known densities or using gradients in probabilistic models.
method Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) for modeling fluid dynamics to approximate target densities.
result SPH-ParVI provides fast, flexible, scalable, and deterministic sampling for Bayesian inference and generative models.
BI-EqNO: Generalized Approximate Bayesian Inference with an Equivariant Neural Operator Frameworkstat.ML
BI-EqNO improves Bayesian inference with flexible neural operators.
problem Inaccurate estimation of marginal likelihoods in approximate Bayesian methods.
method Equivariant neural operator framework for generalized approximate Bayesian inference.
result BI-EqNO enhances both deterministic and stochastic approaches to Bayesian inference.
We propose a technique for increasing the efficiency of gradient-based inference and learning in Bayesian networks with multiple layers of continuous latent vari- ables. We show that, in many cases, it is possible to express such models in an auxiliary form, where continuous latent variables are conditionally determini…
While the impact of variational inference (VI) on posterior inference in a fixed generative model is well-characterized, its role in regularizing a learned generative model when used in variational autoencoders (VAEs) is poorly understood. We study the regularizing effects of variational distributions on learning in ge…
Extends linear structural causal models to include deterministic relations and latent confounders for causal discovery.
problem Causal discovery in linear SCMs with deterministic relations and latent confounders.
method Extended existing results to include deterministic relations and latent confounders, derived necessary and sufficient conditions for unique identifiability, proposed an algorithm for recovery.
result First work on identifiability results for causal discovery under latent confounding and deterministic relationships.
New method calibrates predictions in chaotic systems using variational inference.
problem Uncertainty in data assimilation for chaotic systems.
method Variational inference applied to multivariate Gaussian distribution.
result Nearly perfectly calibrated predictions in chaotic Lorenz-96 dynamics.
Automatic Variational ABCstat.ML
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches commonly used in ABC. However, SVI is highly sensitive to the variance of the gradient…