A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper improves speech separation by using deep neural networks for more accurate density priors.
Adaptive multi-stage density ratio estimation improves learning of latent space EBM.
We study the problem of finding probability densities that match given European call option prices. To allow prior information about such a density to be taken into account, we generalise the algorithm presented in Neri and Schneider (2011) to find the maximum entropy density of an asset price to the relative entropy c…
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a powerful generative model that can estimate the probability of a data point by using latent variables. In the VAE, the posterior of the latent variable given the data point is regularized by the prior of the latent variable using Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence. Although the stan…
Neural-g models mixtures of densities with flexibility and accuracy.
Nested sampling improved for arbitrary priors.
We present sparse tree-based and list-based density estimation methods for binary/categorical data. Our density estimation models are higher dimensional analogies to variable bin width histograms. In each leaf of the tree (or list), the density is constant, similar to the flat density within the bin of a histogram. His…
A method for eliciting expert beliefs using preferential questions and normalizing flows.
A new algorithm discovers causal factors between T2DM and bone mineral density.
Proposes method for eliciting non-parametric joint priors using normalizing flows.
Logistic Gaussian process (LGP) priors provide a flexible alternative for modelling unknown densities. The smoothness properties of the density estimates can be controlled through the prior covariance structure of the LGP, but the challenge is the analytically intractable inference. In this paper, we present approximat…
This paper compares log-likelihood and BLEU scores for sequence generation tasks.
Method estimates joint probability density from samples using low-rank decomposition and random projections.
The paper discusses the impact of prior densities on Bayesian model selection.
HS-BQR extends horseshoe prior for Bayesian quantile regression.
Optimal transport framework for density estimation with constraints.
In this paper we propose a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the bulk part below threshold and a generalized Pareto density in the tail for extreme value estimation. The proposed model is simple and flexible allowing us posterior density estimation and posterior inference for high quantiles. …
In this paper we propose a novel framework for the construction of sparsity-inducing priors. In particular, we define such priors as a mixture of exponential power distributions with a generalized inverse Gaussian density (EP-GIG). EP-GIG is a variant of generalized hyperbolic distributions, and the special cases inclu…
In this paper, we study two aspects of the variational autoencoder (VAE): the prior distribution over the latent variables and its corresponding posterior. First, we decompose the learning of VAEs into layerwise density estimation, and argue that having a flexible prior is beneficial to both sample generation and infer…
New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.
Improved flow-based models capture dependencies better with multi-scale autoregressive priors.
Paper connects probability density cuts to graph theory eigenfunctions.
A simple regularization method improves model generalization.
In this paper we investigate the geometry of the likelihood of the unknown parameters in a simple class of Bayesian directed graphs with hidden variables. This enables us, before any numerical algorithms are employed, to obtain certain insights in the nature of the unidentifiability inherent in such models, the way pos…
Estimates the ratio of posterior distributions of latent variables.
Unified framework for robust, stable, and efficient density ratio estimation.
Transfer learning has recently attracted significant research attention, as it simultaneously learns from different source domains, which have plenty of labeled data, and transfers the relevant knowledge to the target domain with limited labeled data to improve the prediction performance. We propose a Bayesian transfer…
Featurization improves density ratio estimation for complex data.
Algorithms for Magnetic Resonance (MR) image reconstruction from undersampled measurements exploit prior information to compensate for missing k-space data. Deep learning (DL) provides a powerful framework for extracting such information from existing image datasets, through learning, and then using it for reconstructi…
We study the Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimator (NPMLE) for estimating Gaussian location mixture densities in -dimensions from independent observations. Unlike usual likelihood-based methods for fitting mixtures, NPMLEs are based on convex optimization. We prove finite sample results on the Hellinger accurac…
New method uses deep learning to solve linear inverse problems.
New algorithm samples neural network posteriors efficiently.
Representations based on random walks can exploit discrete data distributions for clustering and classification. We extend such representations from discrete to continuous distributions. Transition probabilities are now calculated using a diffusion equation with a diffusion coefficient that inversely depends on the dat…
In this paper, we develop a Bayesian evidence maximization framework to solve the sparse non-negative least squares (S-NNLS) problem. We introduce a family of probability densities referred to as the Rectified Gaussian Scale Mixture (R- GSM) to model the sparsity enforcing prior distribution for the solution. The R-GSM…
Two EM algorithms estimate prior distributions in mixture of linear regressions.
BOE reformulates BO as a classifier for scalable batch optimisation.
We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent Pólya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's Gaussian process prior. The augmented posterior allows for efficient inference by Gi…
Deep learning method infers causal interactions from data.
Estimates expected information gain using density approximations and dimension reduction.
Modeling complex conditional distributions is critical in a variety of settings. Despite a long tradition of research into conditional density estimation, current methods employ either simple parametric forms or are difficult to learn in practice. This paper employs normalising flows as a flexible likelihood model and …
This paper develops a slice sampler for Bayesian linear regression models with arbitrary priors. The new sampler has two advantages over current approaches. One, it is faster than many custom implementations that rely on auxiliary latent variables, if the number of regressors is large. Two, it can be used with any prio…
We propose a generalized double Pareto prior for Bayesian shrinkage estimation and inferences in linear models. The prior can be obtained via a scale mixture of Laplace or normal distributions, forming a bridge between the Laplace and Normal-Jeffreys' priors. While it has a spike at zero like the Laplace density, it al…
Proposes a new method for nonlinear Bayesian updates using ensemble kernel regression.
Optimizes spectral density estimation for stationary and nonstationary processes.
Density-based clustering techniques are used in a wide range of data mining applications. One of their most attractive features con- sists in not making use of prior knowledge of the number of clusters that a dataset contains along with their shape. In this paper we propose a new algorithm named Linear DBSCAN (Lin-DBSC…
The paper establishes conditions for Bayesian consistency in supremum metric.
Normalized compound random measures are flexible nonparametric priors for related distributions. We consider building general nonparametric regression models using normalized compound random measure mixture models. Posterior inference is made using a novel pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampler for normalized comp…
There are three principle paradigms of statistical inference: (i) Bayesian, (ii) information-based and (iii) frequentist inference. We describe an objective prior (the weighting or -prior) which unifies objective Bayes and information-based inference. The -prior is chosen to make the marginal probability an unbia…