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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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73147220293 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Demographic Dynamics

Study of urban lifestyles from mobility data of 1.2M people in 11 U.S. cities.

problem Lack of interpretability in digital mobility data for understanding urban lifestyles.
method Privacy-enhanced dataset of mobility visitation patterns, latent activity behavior decomposition.
result Detected 12 latent activity behaviors that describe urban lifestyles, not single lifestyles.

The study of fairness in intelligent decision systems has mostly ignored long-term influence on the underlying population. Yet fairness considerations (e.g. affirmative action) have often the implicit goal of achieving balance among groups within the population. The most basic notion of balance is eventual equality bet…

2018-12-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Decomposes bias in linear models under demographic parity constraints.

problem Understanding and quantifying bias in linear models under fairness constraints.
method Post-processing framework to decompose bias into direct and indirect components.
result Analytical characterization of how demographic parity reshapes model coefficients.

The paper aims to explore the impacts of bi-demographic structure on the current account and growth. Using a SVAR modeling, we track the dynamic impacts between these underlying variables. New insights have been developed about the dynamic interrelation between population growth, current account and economic growth. Th…

2018-03-29abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a simple dynamical model of the formation of production networks among monopolistically competitive firms. The model subsumes the standard general equilibrium approach à la Arrow-Debreu but displays a wide set of potential dynamic behaviors. It robustly reproduces key stylized facts of firms' demographics. O…

2015-09-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Generative model predicts daily activity sequences with duration-aware dynamics.

problem Accurately forecasting granular daily activity sequences for energy demand.
method Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics.
result Explicitly modeling activity durations improves predictive performance.

Medical imaging models may encode demographic attributes without violating fairness, depending on the approach.

problem Discrimination in medical imaging models due to encoding demographic attributes.
method Examined marginal and class-conditional representation invariance, traditional fairness notions, and counterfactual fairness.
result Demographically invariant models may not necessarily be fair, and encoding demographic attributes can be advantageous.

New methods target conditional demographic parity using optimal transport distances.

problem Auditing and enforcing conditional demographic parity (CDP) in models with complex conditioning variables.
method Developed novel measures of conditional demographic disparity (CDD) based on optimal transport distances and regularization-based approaches.
result Validated methods airbit{} and airlp{} effectively target CDP in real-world datasets with continuous model outputs.

DeepUnHide uses deep learning to reveal hidden demographic features in recommender systems.

problem Extracting hidden demographic features from recommender systems factors.
method Gradient-based localization in deep learning for feature extraction.
result DeepUnHide outperforms state-of-the-art feature selection methods.

A new method for survival analysis models that ensures fairness without using sensitive demographic data.

problem Ensuring fairness in survival analysis models without relying on sensitive demographic information.
method A worst-case error minimization approach using a training loss function that does not know sensitive demographic information.
result The proposed method often scores better on fairness metrics without a significant drop in prediction accuracy compared to baselines.

We find the optimal error for a constrained regression model under a linear model.

problem Minimizing error while adhering to demographic parity constraints.
method Proposed a minimax optimal error analysis for a demographic parity-constrained regression problem within a linear model.
result The minimax optimal error is characterized by $Θ( rac{dM}{n})$.

Paper develops a model to assess capital requirement for demographic risk using stochastic methods.

problem Quantifying capital requirement for demographic risk in life insurance contracts.
method Stochastic model extending local GAAP to Solvency II framework, proving market consistency.
result Model highlights main drivers of capital requirement evaluation, comparing to GAAP.

A new method uses model gradients to improve fairness without relying on demographic data.

problem Algorithmic fairness issues due to missing demographic information and complex interactions.
method Learning a graph of gradients to identify and improve group fairness robustly to noise.
result Significantly improves fairness without sacrificing overall accuracy.

In many application areas---lending, education, and online recommenders, for example---fairness and equity concerns emerge when a machine learning system interacts with a dynamically changing environment to produce both immediate and long-term effects for individuals and demographic groups. We discuss causal directed a…

2019-09-18abs ↗pdf ↗

CondMTL improves toxicity detection by learning group-specific representations.

problem Algorithmic bias in toxic language detection across demographic groups.
method Conditional Multi-Task Learning (CondMTL) for demographic-specific tasks.
result CondMTL improves predictive recall for minority demographic groups.

Using open source data, we observe the fascinating dynamics of nighttime light. Following a global economic regime shift, the planetary center of light can be seen moving eastwards at a pace of about 60 km per year. Introducing spatial light Gini coefficients, we find a universal pattern of human settlements across dif…

2013-03-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Recent advances in Representation Learning and Adversarial Training seem to succeed in removing unwanted features from the learned representation. We show that demographic information of authors is encoded in -- and can be recovered from -- the intermediate representations learned by text-based neural classifiers. The …

2018-08-20abs ↗pdf ↗

New framework tackles fairness in link prediction beyond demographic parity.

problem Systemic biases in link prediction can exacerbate societal inequalities.
method Formalizes limitations of existing fairness evaluations and proposes a new framework.
result Proposes a lightweight post-processing method combined with decoupled link predictors.

Paper proposes a method to detect fair communities in graphs considering demographic attributes.

problem Inconsistent community detection violates fairness constraints for nodes with demographic attributes.
method Develops an 1\ell_1-regularized pseudo-likelihood approach for fair graphical model selection.
result The method ensures demographic groups are fairly represented within detected communities.

Study predicts U.S. county COVID-19 growth using demographic and social distancing data.

problem Predicting county-level COVID-19 growth during the pandemic.
method Spectral clustering, correlation matrix, demographic features, social distancing scores, LSTM model.
result Effective prediction of future county growth using demographic and social distancing data.

Integrates differential privacy and demographic parity in multi-class classification.

problem Ensuring fairness and privacy in sensitive applications.
method Designs DP2DP algorithm that enforces both demographic parity and differential privacy.
result DP2DP converges towards demographic parity at nearly the same rate as non-private methods, achieving state-of-the-art trade-offs.

Classifiers that achieve demographic balance by explicitly using protected attributes such as race or gender are often politically or culturally controversial due to their lack of individual fairness, i.e. individuals with similar qualifications will receive different outcomes. Individually and group fair decision crit…

2019-09-03abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper shows how demographic data can lead to biased predictions, proposing 'Affirmative Information' as a solution.

problem Bias in predictions due to demographic data.
method Characterization of error types and conditions leading to disparate impact.
result Demographic variables in data can lead to biased predictions, with higher average outcomes receiving higher false positive rates.

The study improves crime prediction using Foursquare and streetlight data with demographic info.

problem Improving crime prediction models using diverse data sources.
method Combining Foursquare and streetlight data with demographic info for crime prediction.
result The proposed model enhances classification performance in crime prediction.

Bias in training data affects diagnostic algorithms' performance.

problem Bias in training data leads to biased predictions in diagnostic algorithms.
method Survey of MICCAI 2018 proceedings, analysis of a skin lesions dataset, adversarial training setup.
result Classifier performance varies significantly between subgroups based on age and sex.

It has recently been shown that if feedback effects of decisions are ignored, then imposing fairness constraints such as demographic parity or equality of opportunity can actually exacerbate unfairness. We propose to address this challenge by modeling feedback effects as Markov decision processes (MDPs). First, we prop…

2019-01-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Calendar graph neural networks model user behavior with location and time data.

problem Modeling user behavior with location and time information for demographic prediction.
method Graph neural networks with a tripartite network of items, sessions, and locations, and a hierarchical calendar network.
result User embeddings preserve spatial and temporal patterns of various periodicity.

Unified framework for fair regression under demographic parity.

problem Ensuring fairness in regression tasks subject to demographic parity constraints.
method Proposes a unified framework applicable to various regression tasks with a broad spectrum of loss functions, derived a novel characterization of the fair risk minimizer, and established theoretical consistency and convergence rates.
result Effective minimization of risk while satisfying fairness constraints across various regression settings.

The paper explores fair regression and classification under demographic parity constraints.

problem Ensuring fairness in regression and classification models under demographic parity constraints.
method Characterizes the optimal fair regression function using a barycenter problem with optimal transport costs and studies the connection between fair classification and regression.
result The optimal fair regression function is derived from the solution to a barycenter problem with optimal transport costs, and the optimal fair cost-sensitive classifiers can be derived by applying thresholds to this function.

Extends Demographic Parity for fairer wage predictions with expert knowledge.

problem Inadequate fairness metrics limit user domain knowledge and ignore intersectional fairness.
method Develops a parametric method to incorporate expert knowledge in fair predictions.
result Offers a robust solution for real-life applications with limited data and spending constraints.

The paper optimizes pension policies with guarantees and sustainability constraints.

problem Designing optimal pension policies with guarantees and sustainability constraints.
method Dynamic utility model, stochastic domain, overlapping generations, time-consistent decision criterion.
result Optimal investment/pension policy computed for a general framework.