Demand response is designed to motivate electricity customers to modify their loads at critical time periods. The accurate estimation of impact of demand response signals to customers' consumption is central to any successful program. In practice, learning these response is nontrivial because operators can only send a …
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48 results for “Demand response”
Dynamic Modeling of Price Responsive Demand in Real-time Electricity Market: Empirical Analysisstat.AP
In this paper, we study the price responsiveness of electricity consumption from empirical commercial and industrial load data obtained from Texas. Employing a dynamical system perspective, we show that price responsive demand can be modeled as a hybrid of a Hammerstein model with delay following a price surge, and a l…
New framework estimates demand responses across multiple contexts with limited price variation.
problem Estimating heterogeneous linear price-response functions across multiple contexts with limited price variation and confounding.
method Meta-learning framework that identifies conditional mean of task-specific causal demand parameters given a subset of task-specific observables.
result Improved recovery of demand responses relative to standard transfer-learning baselines.
Quantifying Stock Price Response to Demand Fluctuationscond-mat.stat-mech
We address the question of how stock prices respond to changes in demand. We quantify the relations between price change over a time interval and two different measures of demand fluctuations: (a) , defined as the difference between the number of buyer-initiated and seller-initiated trades, and (b) , def…
Study improves dynamic PT fleet optimization under noisy demand predictions.
problem Accurately predicting dynamic public transport demand for effective fleet management.
method Experimental case study in Copenhagen, using linear programming to optimize fleets.
result Optimized fleet performance is mainly affected by noise distribution skew and large errors.
Price responsiveness is a major feature of end use customers (EUCs) that participate in demand response (DR) programs, and has been conventionally modeled with static demand functions, which take the electricity price as the input and the aggregate energy consumption as the output. This, however, neglects the inherent …
Dynamic pricing aims to match power supply and demand in an energy transition.
problem Mismatch between renewable energy supply and consumer demand.
method Formalizes decision-making problem, designs forecasting models, and statistical demand response models.
result Dynamic pricing can synchronise power supply and demand effectively.
Oil markets profoundly influence world economies through determination of prices of energy and transports. Using novel methodology devised in frequency domain, we study the information transmission mechanisms in oil-based commodity markets. Taking crude oil as a supply-side benchmark and heating oil and gasoline as dem…
This paper extends a Kyle model to include price-responsive traders, revealing new dynamics and equilibria.
problem Real-world market dynamics involve price-responsive traders, affecting market equilibrium and insider profits.
method Developed a continuous-time Kyle model with two types of price-responsive traders (momentum and contrarian), leading to a forward-backward Riccati system for equilibrium.
result The model shows that feedback effects can lead to multiple equilibria and amplify price informativeness.
The purpose of this paper is to identify the immediate and future retailer response to wholesale stockouts. We perform a statistical analysis of historical customer order and delivery data of a local tool wholesaler and distributor, whose customers are retailers, over a period of four years. We investigate the effect o…
Paper tackles online learning for DR management with incentives.
problem Estimating baseline consumption in DR programs with consumer incentives.
method Online learning scheme using least-squares with perturbed reward prices.
result Achieves low regret of $\mathcal{O}\left((\log{T})^2
ight)$ compared to optimal.
This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the …
Probabilistic Forecast-based Portfolio Optimization of Electricity Demand at Low Aggregation Levelsq-fin.RM
Paper optimizes demand aggregation for low-level electricity markets.
problem Accurate short-term load forecasting at low aggregation levels for market participants.
method Probabilistic portfolio optimization of residential households' demand using ARMA-GARCH models or KDE forecasts.
result Seasonal Residual approach outperforms others in accuracy and efficiency.
In standard Walrasian auctions, the price of a good is defined as the point where the supply and demand curves intersect. Since both curves are generically regular, the response to small perturbations is linearly small. However, a crucial ingredient is absent of the theory, namely transactions themselves. What happens …
Proposes a new method for multivariate functional regression.
problem Multivariate functional regression with complex relationships.
method Nested reduced-rank regularization (NRRR) approach.
result Consistent and effective in fitting multivariate functional regression models.
This thesis tackles bias in AI decision-making in banking.
problem Bias in AI-driven banking decisions.
method Understanding, mitigating, and accounting for bias in AI systems.
result Establishment of Responsible AI practices for fair decision-making.
Though distribution system operators have been adding more sensors to their networks, they still often lack an accurate real-time picture of the behavior of distributed energy resources such as demand responsive electric loads and residential solar generation. Such information could improve system reliability, economic…
We propose a contextual-bandit approach for demand side management by offering price incentives. More precisely, a target mean consumption is set at each round and the mean consumption is modeled as a complex function of the distribution of prices sent and of some contextual variables such as the temperature, weather, …
Accurately predicting when and where ambulance call-outs occur can reduce response times and ensure the patient receives urgent care sooner. Here we present a novel method for ambulance demand prediction using Gaussian process regression (GPR) in time and geographic space. The method exhibits superior accuracy to MEDIC…
Model analyzes trading frictions in cap-and-trade markets, showing how they interact to affect market effectiveness.
problem Analyzing how trading frictions impact cap-and-trade market effectiveness.
method Developed a dynamic stochastic model with multiple trading frictions, characterized access choices in closed form, and quantified using EU ETS data.
result Trading frictions interact to amplify or dampen market responses, and their combined effect is non-additive.
Paper uses tensor completion to estimate HVAC fan power baselines.
problem Estimating HVAC fan power without demand response.
method Tensor completion for multi-dimensional data analysis.
result Tensor completion outperforms existing baselining methods.
New algorithm speeds up IRT model fitting for large datasets.
problem Inefficient algorithms for fitting Item Response Theory models to large datasets.
method Stochastic Variational Inference for IRT models.
result Higher log likelihoods and accuracy in imputing missing data.
From Live to Recording: Consumer Demand and Response to Price Across the Livestreaming Lifecyclestat.ML
Study finds consumers are more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
problem Understanding consumer demand during livestreaming lifecycle.
method Examined consumer demand for live events and recorded versions using data from a livestreaming platform.
result Demand is more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
Study examines how COVID-19 intensified demand variability in U.S. supply chains.
problem The amplification of demand variability (Bullwhip Effect) in supply chains during the pandemic.
method Extensive industry-level data analysis using traditional and advanced empirical techniques.
result COVID-19 significantly amplified the Bullwhip Effect across different U.S. industries.
Recent years have witnessed an increased focus on interpretability and the use of machine learning to inform policy analysis and decision making. This paper applies machine learning to examine travel behavior and, in particular, on modeling changes in travel modes when individuals are presented with a novel (on-demand)…
Datasets are growing not just in size but in complexity, creating a demand for rich models and quantification of uncertainty. Bayesian methods are an excellent fit for this demand, but scaling Bayesian inference is a challenge. In response to this challenge, there has been considerable recent work based on varying assu…
In coming years residential consumers will face real-time electricity tariffs with energy prices varying day to day, and effective energy saving will require automation - a recommender system, which learns consumer's preferences from her actions. A consumer chooses a scenario of home appliance use to balance her comfor…
The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, and is shown t…
The large thermal capacity of buildings enables heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems to be exploited as demand response (DR) resources. Optimal DR of HVAC units is challenging, particularly for multi-zone buildings, because this requires detailed physics-based models of zonal temperature variations…
CROCS clusters consumer behaviour from smart meters, capturing variability and robustness.
problem Insufficient consumer segmentation in existing clustering methods.
method Two-stage clustering framework: first stage clusters daily load profiles, second stage uses WSMD for set-to-set comparison.
result CROCS captures intra-consumer variability and robustness to anomalies and missing data.
In urban environments, supply resources have to be constantly matched to the "right" locations (where customer demand is present) so as to improve quality of life. For instance, ambulances have to be matched to base stations regularly so as to reduce response time for emergency incidents in EMS (Emergency Management Sy…
Paper uses CVAE to simulate tariff impacts on electricity consumption.
problem Simulating tariff impacts on household electricity consumption.
method CVAE-based clustering and generation of consumption profiles.
result CVAE method can reproduce rebound and side effects in consumption profiles.
New Bayesian method for sparse multidimensional item response theory.
problem Sparse interpretable explanations for questionnaire data.
method Bayesian EM algorithm for sparse factor loadings.
result Reliable recovery of factor dimensionality and latent structure.
Asymmetric Nonlinear Return Extrapolation and Optimal Portfolio Choice under Stochastic Volatilityq-fin.PM
Extends return extrapolation to nonlinear, asymmetric functions under stochastic volatility.
problem Behavioral anomalies in portfolio choice under stochastic volatility.
method Smooth, nonlinear, asymmetric extrapolation function; CRRA investor; Heston stochastic volatility; Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation; Numerical solutions (finite-difference ADI, deep learning-driven iterative).
result Saturation acts as an endogenous correction mechanism, reducing welfare loss.
Asymmetric Nonlinear Return Extrapolation and Optimal Portfolio Choice under Stochastic Volatilityq-fin.PM
We extend return extrapolation to incorporate asymmetry and saturation, finding that asymmetric nonlinear extrapolation leads to lower welfare loss.
problem Optimal portfolio choice under stochastic volatility
method Smooth, nonlinear extrapolation function with sentiment and variance hedging
result Lower welfare loss with asymmetric nonlinear extrapolation
Study shows visual feedback and monetary incentives reduce plugload energy consumption in commercial buildings.
problem Mitigating energy consumption in commercial buildings through occupant plugload control.
method Field experiments with visual feedback and monetary incentives in government and university buildings.
result Mean energy reduction of ~9.52% in office environments and ~21.61% in university environments with visual feedback.
Order dispatching and driver repositioning (also known as fleet management) in the face of spatially and temporally varying supply and demand are central to a ride-sharing platform marketplace. Hand-crafting heuristic solutions that account for the dynamics in these resource allocation problems is difficult, and may be…
An efficient algorithm selects the correct number of latent dimensions in multidimensional probit models.
problem Determining the correct number of latent dimensions in multidimensional probit graded response models.
method Adaptive Bayesian dimension selection framework using cumulative ordered spike-and-slab (COSS) prior and Albert--Chib latent response augmentation.
result The proposed method accurately recovers latent structures and avoids repeated model fitting.
Kernel Ridge Regression Using Importance Sampling with Application to Seismic Response Predictioncs.LG
Paper proposes a new landmark selection method for kernel ridge regression.
problem Efficient landmark selection for scalable kernel methods.
method Two-step approach: first computes importance scores, then clusters them into landmarks.
result Proposed method provides better accuracy and efficiency trade-offs.
Generative model predicts daily activity sequences with duration-aware dynamics.
problem Accurately forecasting granular daily activity sequences for energy demand.
method Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics.
result Explicitly modeling activity durations improves predictive performance.
MF-PID uses interacting samples to efficiently transport probability mass.
problem Efficiently transporting probability mass in generative models.
method Introducing Mean-Field Path-Integral Diffusion (MF-PID) where samples become interacting agents.
result MF-PID achieves 19-24% reductions in control energy for demand-response control of energy systems.
New algorithms achieve decision calibration without sample complexity dependent on feature dimension.
problem Achieving decision calibration for nonlinear loss functions with polynomial sample complexity.
method Developed smooth relaxation of decision calibration, enabling dimension-free algorithms.
result Efficient algorithms post-process predictors to satisfy decision calibration without worsening accuracy.
Framework controls uncertainty in LLMs without labels or probabilities.
problem Managing uncertainty in black-box LLMs without token-level probability or true labels.
method Integrates generative models, UCP, and conformal alignment to control uncertainty.
result Achieves close-to-nominal coverage and tighter thresholds than split UCP.
We present a simple dynamic equilibrium model for an online exchange where both buyers and sellers arrive according to a exogenously defined stochastic process. The structure of this exchange is motivated by the limit order book mechanism used in stock markets. Both buyers and sellers are elastic in the price-quantity …
CAG method predicts nonlinear solid mechanics responses in real-time with high accuracy and efficiency.
problem Real-time prediction of nonlinear solid mechanics responses.
method Clustering adaptive Gaussian process regression (CAG) method.
result Offers predictions within a second with high precision using only 20 samples.
Understanding the functional architecture of the brain in terms of networks is becoming increasingly common. In most fMRI applications functional networks are assumed to be stationary, resulting in a single network estimated for the entire time course. However recent results suggest that the connectivity between brain …
Risk hedging can reduce operational costs by adjusting prices and production levels in response to asset price movements.
problem How risk hedging impacts operational decisions in response to asset price movements.
method Developed and solved a risk-management model integrating risk hedging into a price-setting newsvendor problem.
result Hedging generally reduces optimal price and VPQ, but may increase VPQ under certain conditions.
New algorithm reduces sample complexity for multi-distribution learning.
problem Achieving data-efficient multi-distribution learning with robustness and fairness.
method Proposes a novel algorithm with sample complexity (d+k)/varepsilon^2 for Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension d, matching lower bounds.
result Algorithm matches best-known lower bound and resolves open problems in COLT 2023.