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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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275481108 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for Delta Token Confidence

New analysis shows interpretability doesn't guarantee steering utility in LLMs.

problem Does higher interpretability lead to better steering utility in large language models?
method Trained 90 SAEs across three LLMs, evaluated interpretability and steering utility, used Kendall's rank coefficients for analysis.
result Interpretability is only weakly associated with steering utility, and features selected by Delta Token Confidence improve steering performance.

Optimizes hedge ratio for delta-neutral liquidity positions in AMMs.

problem Balancing price exposure and liquidation risk in borrowing-funded delta-neutral positions.
method Model token prices as correlated geometric Brownian motions, derive optimal hedge ratio maximizing risk-adjusted return subject to liquidation probability constraint.
result Optimal hedge ratio h** = min(h*, h_bar(alpha)) lies between 50% and 70% for typical DeFi lending conditions.

LLMs show surprising confidence in their answers, beyond just tokens.

problem LLMs lack meaningful confidence estimates for their responses.
method Semantic calibration test based on local loss optimality and equivalence classes.
result Base LLMs are semantically calibrated across tasks, contrary to expectations.

Enhanced Sampling Scheme improves masked generative modeling.

problem Limitations of existing sampling schemes in masked non-autoregressive generative modeling.
method ESS consists of three stages: Naive Iterative Decoding, Critical Reverse Sampling, and Critical Resampling.
result ESS achieves significant performance gains in unconditional and class-conditional sampling.

InfoSFT improves LLMs by focusing on informative, medium-confidence tokens.

problem Overfitting to unlikely samples and degradation of prior capabilities in SFT.
method InfoSFT uses a principled weighting scheme to concentrate learning signals on medium-confidence tokens.
result InfoSFT improves generalization and preserves pre-existing capabilities over vanilla SFT and likelihood-weighted baselines.

Derives token price process for AMM tokens, finds leverage effect and pricing discrepancies.

problem Derives token price process for AMM tokens.
method Derives CEV process for token price, derives closed-form option prices, introduces liquidity-adjusted Greeks.
result Token price process is CEV, with leverage effect and pricing discrepancies.

Proposes integrating global and local entropy for more reliable LLMs.

problem Uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) leads to unreliable predictions.
method Measures global uncertainty from hidden-state matrices and local uncertainty from tokens, combining them via a multiplicative gate.
result Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU) outperforms unsupervised baselines across multiple models and benchmarks.

In recent years there has been an increasing interest in learning Bayesian networks from data. One of the most effective methods for learning such networks is based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle. Previous work has shown that this learning procedure is asymptotically successful: with probability one,…

2013-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗

GPT learns a causal world model from token predictions, validated in game sequences.

problem Does GPT implicitly learn a causal world model from token predictions?
method Derived a causal interpretation of GPT's attention mechanism and proposed zero-shot causal structure learning.
result GPT can generate legal next moves with high confidence for sequences with encoded causal structures, but fails for illegal moves.

Improved deep hedging with ensemble uncertainty quantification.

problem Uncertainty in deep hedging models hinders their deployment.
method Trained an ensemble of LSTM networks to quantify uncertainty in deep hedging under Heston volatility and proportional transaction costs.
result The ensemble's disagreement provides a strong predictive confidence measure for hedge performance.

New method for estimating spatial associations with discrete data, even under model misspecification.

problem Estimating associations between covariates and discrete responses with spatial variability and nonrandom sampling.
method Proposes a novel approach to handle spatially varying noise, provides a proof of consistency, and uses a delta method argument.
result Empirically shows reliable confidence intervals compared to standard methods, even with model misspecification.

A/B testing refers to the task of determining the best option among two alternatives that yield random outcomes. We provide distribution-dependent lower bounds for the performance of A/B testing that improve over the results currently available both in the fixed-confidence (or delta-PAC) and fixed-budget settings. When…

2014-05-13abs ↗pdf ↗

New methods for delta-moves on algebraically split links identified.

problem Understanding delta-moves on algebraically split links.
method Introducing self and mixed delta-moves, proving equivalence, and calculating delta-splitting numbers.
result Two links are mixed delta-equivalent if they have the same pairwise linking number and components.

Delta-unlinking number measures how to unlink algebraically split links.

problem Measuring unlinking complexity of algebraically split links.
method Defining delta-unlinking number as minimum delta-moves to unlink, proving bounds and calculating specific values.
result Precise delta-unlinking numbers for algebraically split prime links up to 9 crossings, and 4-genus values for most.

We develop techniques for studying fundamental groups and integral singular homology of symmetric Delta-complexes, and apply these techniques to study moduli spaces of stable tropical curves of unit volume, with and without marked points. As one application, we show that Delta_g and Delta_{g,n} are simply connected, fo…

2019-08-22abs ↗pdf ↗

This study examines representation bias in open-source Qwen models for investment decisions.

problem Representation bias in financial applications of large language models.
method Balanced round-robin prompting over 150 U.S. equities, constrained decoding, token-logit aggregation.
result Firm size and valuation increase model confidence, while risk factors decrease it.

A Delta-groupoid is an algebraic structure which axiomitizes the combinatorics of a truncated tetrahedron. It is shown that there are relations of Delta-groupoids to rings, group pairs, and (ideal) triangulations of three-manifolds. In particular, one can associate a Delta-groupoid to ideal triangulations of knot compl…

2009-08-10abs ↗pdf ↗

We refine the analysis of hedging strategies for options under the SABR model carried out in [2]. In particular, we provide a theoretical justification of the empirical observation made in [2] that the modified delta ("Bartlett's delta") introduced there provides a more accurate and robust hedging strategy than the con…

2017-04-11abs ↗pdf ↗

A Delta-groupoid is an algebraic structure which axiomatizes the combinatorics of a truncated tetrahedron. By considering two simplest examples coming from knot theory, we illustrate how can one associate a Delta-groupoid to an ideal triangulation of a three-manifold. We also describe in detail the rings associated wit…

2010-01-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Bootstrap method for Markov chains in reinforcement learning.

problem Distributional consistency in finite controlled Markov chains with unknown control policies.
method Model-based bootstrap with novel LLN and CLT for visitation counts and transition increments.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and QQ-functions in offline RL.

Emergent misalignment is influenced by training dynamics, model priors, and data.

problem Emergent misalignment in models
method Exploring training dynamics, model priors, and data
result Activation deltas before and after narrow fine-tuning correlate with their similarities when measured with the last prompt-token activations.

Delta method vs Bootstrap for deep learning classification shows strong linear relationship and faster computation.

problem Validating the Delta method for deep learning classification.
method Comparison of Delta method and Bootstrap on LeNet-based neural networks using MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets.
result The Delta method provides a five times faster computation with strong linear predictive uncertainty relationship.

Delta finite-type invariants are defined analogously to finite-type invariants, using delta moves instead of crossing changes. We show that they are closely related to the lower central series of the commutator subgroup of the pure braid group.

1999-07-12abs ↗pdf ↗

We call a Delta Diagram any diagram of a knot or link whose regions (including the unbounded one) have 3, 4, or 5 sides. We prove that any knot or link admits a delta diagram. We define and estimate combinatorial link invariants stemming from this definition.

2015-12-20abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper accelerates LLM inference by adding early exit heads trained in a self-supervised manner.

problem Inference speed in large language models (LLMs) is slow and resource-intensive.
method Adding self-supervised early exit heads at intermediate transformer layers to stop computation early based on confidence thresholds.
result Entropy provides the most reliable confidence metric for stopping computation early.

Neural sequence generation is typically performed token-by-token and left-to-right. Whenever a token is generated only previously produced tokens are taken into consideration. In contrast, for problems such as sequence classification, bidirectional attention, which takes both past and future tokens into consideration, …

2019-08-16abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper classifies pretzel links with 2 components and gives conditions for those with 3 or more.

problem Classifying pretzel links based on their self delta-equivalence.
method Using Conway polynomials to determine self delta-equivalence for links with 2 or more components.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for self delta-equivalence of pretzel links with 3 or more components.

We study generalizations of finite-type knot invariants obtained by replacing the crossing change in the Vassiliev skein relation by some other local move, analyzing in detail the band-pass and doubled-delta moves. Using braid-theoretic techniques, we show that, for a large class of local moves, generalized Goussarov's…

2005-11-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Study calculates liquidity costs for delta hedging of European options.

problem Determining expected liquidity costs in delta hedging.
method Derives an integration formula for liquidity costs, including option prices and delta process.
result Expected liquidity costs can be calculated faster than Monte Carlo simulations.

This paper uses Malliavin calculus to price and compute delta of financial derivatives in jump-diffusion models.

problem Pricing and delta computation of financial derivatives in jump-diffusion models with stochastic intensity.
method Utilizes Malliavin calculus to price and compute delta, applying the Euler scheme for convergence analysis.
result Established the convergence of approximated solution, financial derivative, and its delta Greeks.

We study the calibration of several state of the art neural machine translation(NMT) systems built on attention-based encoder-decoder models. For structured outputs like in NMT, calibration is important not just for reliable confidence with predictions, but also for proper functioning of beam-search inference. We show …

2019-03-03abs ↗pdf ↗

This research improves capital efficiency and impermanent loss in cryptocurrency markets using multi-token trading pools.

problem Poor impermanent loss and capital efficiency in automated market makers.
method Analysis and construction of a multi-token token proactive market maker (MPMM).
result MPMM shows better impermanent loss and capital efficiency than comparable market makers.