A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper introduces new risk measures for default risk and model uncertainty.
Paper proposes a framework for precise daily default risk prediction of Chinese credit bonds.
The paper shows how to calculate risk-neutral default probabilities from bid and ask CDS quotes.
The paper values and hedges EPS products with jumps and default risks.
Study optimal reinsurance for insurers with a reinsurer's default risk.
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem, evaluating the uncertainties associated with the default predictions remains littl…
We develop a finite horizon continuous time market model, where risk averse investors maximize utility from terminal wealth by dynamically investing in a risk-free money market account, a stock written on a default-free dividend process, and a defaultable bond, whose prices are determined via equilibrium. We analyze fi…
New method for valuing and hedging credit risk when defaults cannot be hedged.
According to theoretical models of valuing risky corporate securities, risk of default is primary component in overall yield spread. However, sizable empirical literature considers it otherwise by giving more importance to non-default risk factors. Current study empirically attempts to provide relative solution to this…
Mean field game with defaultable agents and systemic risk quantified.
This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in fina…
Investors optimize equity and CDS trading to mitigate default risk.
We study multiple defaults where the global market information is modelled as progressive enlargement of filtrations. We shall provide a general pricing formula by establishing a relationship between the enlarged filtration and the reference default-free filtration in the random measure framework. On each default scena…
We develop a dynamic point process model of correlated default timing in a portfolio of firms, and analyze typical default profiles in the limit as the size of the pool grows. In our model, a firm defaults at a stochastic intensity that is influenced by an idiosyncratic risk process, a systematic risk process common to…
The classical reduced-form and filtration expansion framework in credit risk is extended to the case of multiple, non-ordered defaults, assuming that conditional densities of the default times exist. Intensities and pricing formulas are derived, revealing how information driven default contagion arises in these models.…
Developed Merton's model for public companies using observed liabilities.
New approach avoids restrictive assumptions for optimal portfolio in default risk scenarios.
The paper analyzes Lending Club's loan applicants to predict default risk.
Bayesian and simulation methods predict credit default probabilities.
Study on price formation in financial markets with a single default event.
Fair insurance contracts are designed to handle default risk using cooperative game theory.
We introduce the general arbitrage-free valuation framework for counterparty risk adjustments in presence of bilateral default risk, including default of the investor. We illustrate the symmetry in the valuation and show that the adjustment involves a long position in a put option plus a short position in a call option…
Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between Merton-type and Black-Cox-type structural default models. Our framework leads to a singl…
Model predicts default risk based on company's financial forecasts and credit conditions.
This paper improves credit risk analysis by incorporating state-dependent recovery rates into a factor model.
In the context of a locally risk-minimizing approach, the problem of hedging defaultable claims and their Follmer-Schweizer decompositions are discussed in a structural model. This is done when the underlying process is a finite variation Levy process and the claims pay a predetermined payout at maturity, contingent on…
We propose a unified framework for equity and credit risk modeling, where the default time is a doubly stochastic random time with intensity driven by an underlying affine factor process. This approach allows for flexible interactions between the defaultable stock price, its stochastic volatility and the default intens…
We propose a novel credit default model that takes into account the impact of macroeconomic information and contagion effect on the defaults of obligors. We use a set-valued Markov chain to model the default process, which is the set of all defaulted obligors in the group. We obtain analytic characterizations for the d…
The article constructs a forward utility for markets with multiple default risks.
The valuation of counterparty risk for single name credit derivatives requires the computa- tion of joint distributions of default times of two default-prone entities. For a Merton-type model, we derive some formulas for these joint distribu- tions. As an application, closed formulas for counterparty risk on a CDS or f…
Paper simplifies default process modeling and credit valuation.
In this paper we are concerned with backward stochastic differential equations with random default time and their applications to default risk. The equations are driven by Brownian motion as well as a mutually independent martingale appearing in a defaultable setting. We show that these equations have unique solutions …
The study examines how climate risk influences sovereign debt default decisions.
We analyze the practical consequences of the bilateral counterparty risk adjustment. We point out that past literature assumes that, at the moment of the first default, a risk-free closeout amount will be used. We argue that the legal (ISDA) documentation suggests in many points that a substitution closeout should be u…
We develop a model for the dynamic evolution of default-free and defaultable interest rates in a LIBOR framework. Utilizing the class of affine processes, this model produces positive LIBOR rates and spreads, while the dynamics are analytically tractable under defaultable forward measures. This leads to explicit formul…
Study evaluates SHAP for credit card default model consistency.
Study optimizes classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
Default risk significantly affects the corporate policies of a firm. We develop a model in which a limited liability entity subject to Poisson default shock jointly sets its dividend policy and capital structure to maximize the expected lifetime utility from consumption of risk averse equity investors. We give a comple…
This letter assesses model risk in credit capital requirements and finds substantial tail risk.
The paper analyzes the mathematics of the relationship between the default risk and yield-to-maturity of a coupon bond. It is shown that the yield-to-maturity is driven not only by the default probability and recovery rate of the bond but also by other contractual characteristics of the bond that are not commonly assoc…
Modeling default contagion and systemic risk using a balls-and-bins approach.
The utility-based pricing of defaultable bonds in the case of stochastic intensity models of default risk is discussed. The Hamilton-Jacobi- Bellman (HJB) equations for the value functions is derived. A finite difference method is used to solve this problem. The yield-spreads for both buyer and seller are extracted. Th…
This paper studies an optimal investment and risk control problem for an insurer with default contagion and regime-switching. The insurer in our model allocates his/her wealth across multi-name defaultable stocks and a riskless bond under regime-switching risk. Default events have an impact on the distress state of the…
Revisits Jarrow & Turnbull model for credit and liquidity risk.
As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as …
Paper proposes a new method to assess default risk using CEV process in KMV model.
Paper forecasts corporate default risk using Particle MCMC with expert opinions.
The mixed-fractional CEV model improves CDS pricing by accounting for default risk.