DER uses neural nets to better handle uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in safety-critical domains.
method Uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs) with evidential distributions.
result DER shows promise over traditional methods but is a heuristic.
New method extracts aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties from regression-based neural networks.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems.
method Learning evidential distributions for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Allows for the simultaneous extraction of both uncertainties without sampling or out-of-distribution data.
ECP method improves image classifier uncertainty sets.
problem Generating reliable uncertainty sets for deep classifiers.
method Evidential Conformal Prediction (ECP) based on EDL.
result ECP outperforms state-of-the-art methods in set size and adaptivity.
Survey on Evidential Deep Learning for uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.
problem Uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks with overhead or limited diversity.
method Evidential Deep Learning, parameterizing distributions over distributions.
result Single model and forward pass uncertainty estimation with a unified notation.
DAEDL improves EDL's OOD detection and classification performance by integrating feature space density.
problem Limited OOD detection and classification performance of EDL.
method Integrates feature space density with EDL's output and uses a novel parameterization.
result Demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across uncertainty estimation and classification tasks.
Flexible evidential deep learning improves uncertainty quantification in machine learning.
problem Overconfident predictions in machine learning models can lead to serious consequences.
method Proposes flexible evidential deep learning (F-EDL) to model uncertainty over class probabilities using a flexible Dirichlet distribution.
result Empirically demonstrates state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification performance across diverse scenarios.
Efficient AL method improves CNN performance with minimal labeled data.
problem Limited labeled data for training CNNs.
method Deep Evidential Active Learning (DEAL) using Dirichlet density.
result DEAL consistently outperforms other AL approaches and requires minimal computational resources.
A new method improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning, especially for hard-to-label samples.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation for hard-to-label samples in deep learning.
method Introduces Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to dynamically reweight objective loss terms.
result Consistently outperforms traditional evidential neural networks in uncertainty estimation tasks.
Study questions the reliability of uncertainty quantification in evidential deep learning.
problem Reliability of uncertainty quantification in evidential deep learning.
method Analysis of evidential deep learning methods, revealing their limitations and interpreting them as out-of-distribution detection algorithms.
result EDL methods are unreliable in quantifying uncertainty, even when effective on downstream tasks.
This research improves neural network uncertainty estimates and reliability.
problem Lack of inherent uncertainty estimates and variability in softmax scores.
method Ensemble-based Dirichlet modeling with method of moments estimator.
result Improved stability and predictive uncertainty estimates.
Proposes a deep model for Bayesian quantile regression without Gaussian assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification from single forward-pass models is computationally expensive and restrictive.
method Deep evidential learning for Bayesian quantile regression.
result Achieves calibrated uncertainties on non-Gaussian distributions.
New method improves uncertainty calibration in deep learning.
problem Systematic overconfidence in EDL on out-of-distribution inputs.
method Density-Informed Pseudo-count EDL (DIP-EDL) separates class prediction from uncertainty.
result DIP-EDL achieves asymptotic concentration and enhances robustness and uncertainty calibration.
Deterministic neural networks (NNs) are increasingly being deployed in safety critical domains, where calibrated, robust, and efficient measures of uncertainty are crucial. In this paper, we propose a novel method for training non-Bayesian NNs to estimate a continuous target as well as its associated evidence in order …
Simplified plug-in loss approximates EDL for reliable uncertainty estimation.
problem Efficient and reliable uncertainty estimation in real-world sensor-based learning systems.
method Approximate Dirichlet expected objectives with plug-in losses evaluated at the Dirichlet mean.
result Plug-in losses provide comparable predictive accuracy and selective prediction performance to classical EDL, while being simpler to implement.
Enhances ENet's prediction accuracy while maintaining uncertainty estimation.
problem Gradient shrinkage problem in ENet's loss function.
method Proposes a multi-task learning framework with a modified MSE loss function.
result Improves ENet's prediction accuracy without losing uncertainty estimation.
We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving closed-form access to predictive uncertainty. We employ it to model aleatoric un…
PG-EVIKAL refines molecular property predictions using neighbor fusion and evidential neural networks.
problem Improving molecular property predictions using test-time neighbor fusion.
method Adapting evidential neural networks to refine predictions by re-ranking structurally similar neighbors.
result PG-EVIKAL reduces RMSE on 14 out of 16 molecular datasets, improving calibration and sequential refinement.
EDICT learns evidential distributions for irregular time series, improving predictions and uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in predicting and characterizing uncertainty for irregular time series data.
method EDICT (Evidential Distributions for Irregular Time Series) learns a continuous-time evidential distribution.
result EDICT achieves competitive performance on time series classification tasks and provides better uncertainty quantification.
FAML addresses biased evidence learning in multi-view learning, improving fairness and prediction reliability.
problem Biased evidence learning in multi-view learning, leading to unreliable uncertainty estimation.
method FAML introduces an adaptive prior and fairness constraint to balance evidence allocation across views.
result FAML enhances fairness and improves prediction reliability compared to state-of-the-art methods.
NN-EVCLUS uses neural networks to cluster data with uncertainty.
problem Clustering data with uncertainty and handling outliers.
method NN-EVCLUS learns a neural network to map attributes to mass functions, minimizing discrepancy between dissimilarities and conflict.
result NN-EVCLUS outperforms existing methods in clustering tasks.
ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.
Evidential clustering is an approach to clustering in which cluster-membership uncertainty is represented by a collection of Dempster-Shafer mass functions forming an evidential partition. In this paper, we propose to construct these mass functions by bootstrapping finite mixture models. In the first step, we compute b…
EGMM improves clustering by better handling uncertainty with evidential framework.
problem Clustering uncertainty and complexity in data.
method Proposes EGMM, a new model-based clustering algorithm using belief functions and EM algorithm.
result EGMM generates more informative evidential partitions and outperforms other algorithms.
Paper introduces efficient uncertainty estimation in LLMs without multiple forward passes.
problem Accurate uncertainty quantification in LLMs remains challenging.
method Evidential Knowledge Distillation to create compact student models.
result Efficient uncertainty estimation achieved with single forward pass.
Proposes a simpler method for quantifying uncertainty in time-series with volatility clustering.
problem Uncertainty quantification for time-series with volatility clustering.
method Proposes a Scale Mixture Distribution to quantify return forecast uncertainty in neural networks.
result The proposed method provides a favorable complexity-accuracy trade-off and separates model parameters into subnetworks.
Novel method for Bayesian model comparison using deep learning.
problem Comparing complex models in science with intractable likelihood functions.
method Simulation-based, purely deep learning approach that amortizes model fitting costs.
result Achieves excellent results in accuracy, calibration, and efficiency.
Evidential Softmax preserves multimodality in sparse probability distributions for generative models.
problem Sparse probability distributions in deep generative models make exact marginalization computationally intractable.
method Introduce ev-softmax, a sparse normalization function that preserves multimodality and can be trained with probabilistic loss functions.
result ev-softmax outperforms existing techniques in distributional accuracy and dimensionality reduction.
ProbFM provides principled uncertainty quantification for financial forecasting.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in financial applications.
method Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Model with Uncertainty Decomposition using Deep Evidential Regression (DER).
result DER maintains competitive forecasting accuracy while providing explicit epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition.
We present a framework that enables estimation of low-dimensional sub-resolution reservoir properties directly from seismic data, without requiring the solution of a high dimensional seismic inverse problem. Our workflow is based on the Bayesian evidential learning approach and exploits learning the direct relation bet…
Paper provides label complexity guarantees for deep active learning.
problem Lack of rigorous label complexity guarantees for deep active learning.
method Studied deep active learning from nonparametric classification perspective.
result Proved near-optimal label complexity guarantees for deep active learning.
Develops methods to improve reliability of deep learning for autonomous driving.
problem Safety concerns in deploying autonomous driving systems.
method Introduces a new criterion (true class probability) for estimating model confidence and learns it from data.
result Proposed method provides better failure prediction than current uncertainty measures.
Deep active inference learns policies from sensory inputs.
problem Learning policies in partially observable domains.
method Optimizes expected free energy with a variational autoencoder.
result Comparable or better performance than deep Q-learning.
Even though active learning forms an important pillar of machine learning, deep learning tools are not prevalent within it. Deep learning poses several difficulties when used in an active learning setting. First, active learning (AL) methods generally rely on being able to learn and update models from small amounts of …
Proposes an end-to-end deep learning framework for active investing.
problem Constructing an active investment portfolio via deep learning.
method End-to-end deep learning framework covering factor selection, combination, stock selection, and portfolio construction.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of E2E deep learning framework in active investing.
Deep Huber QRNs predict Huber quantiles for house prices.
problem Predicting more functionals of predictive probability distributions.
method Training a DL algorithm with the Huber quantile scoring function.
result DHQRNs provide satisfactory absolute performance in house price prediction.
Deep learning models outperform classical methods in forecasting neural activity.
problem Improving forecasting of neural activity using deep learning models.
method Systematic evaluation of eight probabilistic deep learning models against classical statistical models and baseline methods.
result Several deep learning models consistently outperform classical approaches in forecasting neural activity.
Unified study of active learning for deep neural networks.
problem Improving performance of deep neural networks through active learning.
method Investigation of incremental and cumulative training modes, model configurations, query strategies, and pseudo-labels.
result Proposed more efficient querying procedures and insights into active learning behavior.
Active deep learning classification of hyperspectral images is considered in this paper. Deep learning has achieved success in many applications, but good-quality labeled samples are needed to construct a deep learning network. It is expensive getting good labeled samples in hyperspectral images for remote sensing appl…
INP accelerates stochastic simulations using deep Bayesian active learning.
problem Computational expense of stochastic simulations at fine-grained resolution.
method Interactive Neural Process (INP) framework combining spatiotemporal surrogate model and active learning acquisition function.
result STNP outperforms baselines in accelerating stochastic simulations and LIG achieves state-of-the-art for Bayesian active learning.
SDF adapts Deep Forest for evolving data streams with active learning.
problem Adapting Deep Forest for evolving data streams.
method Streaming Deep Forest (SDF) with Augmented Variable Uncertainty (AVU) active learning.
result SDF with AVU outperforms other methods trained with all instances by 70% labeling budget.
Novel approach uses ENN for UQ in gust predictions, reducing RMSE and improving confidence.
problem Reducing bias and uncertainty in wind gust predictions.
method Evidential Neural Network (ENN) with Explainable AI.
result 47% reduction in RMSE, 95% coverage of observed gusts at 179 out of 266 stations.
In theoretical analysis of deep learning, discovering which features of deep learning lead to good performance is an important task. In this paper, using the framework for analyzing the generalization error developed in Suzuki (2018), we derive a fast learning rate for deep neural networks with more general activation …
This paper provides an overview of activation functions in neural networks.
problem Confusion in activation function selection and properties in deep learning.
method Analytic review of popular activation functions.
result Clarification of activation function properties and selection.
We consider active learning of deep neural networks. Most active learning works in this context have focused on studying effective querying mechanisms and assumed that an appropriate network architecture is a priori known for the problem at hand. We challenge this assumption and propose a novel active strategy whereby …
Automatically discovers effective activation functions for deep learning.
problem Inconsistent performance of novel activation functions in deep learning networks.
method Evolutionary search for general form, gradient descent for parameters.
result Significant performance improvements over ReLU and other functions.
Study evaluates uncertainty estimation methods in binary classification models.
problem Difficulty in quantifying uncertainty in complex models like deep learning.
method Approximate Bayesian inference with synthetic datasets and empirical tests.
result Deep learning-based algorithms do not consistently reflect lack of evidence for out-of-distribution data.
Deep learning models accurately recognize and estimate physical activity types and energy expenditure from wrist accelerometer data.
problem Rigorous evaluation of wrist-worn accelerometers for assessing physical activity across the lifespan.
method Built deep learning networks to extract spatial and temporal representations from time-series data, recognizing physical activity types and estimating energy expenditure.
result Deep learning models achieved high performance: F1 scores of 0.82, 0.81, and 95 for sedentary, locomotor, and lifestyle activities, respectively; root mean square error of 1.1 for EE estimation.
Study benchmarks uncertainty quantification in chest X-ray classification.
problem Reliable uncertainty quantification for medical AI models.
method Evaluation of 13 uncertainty quantification methods on MIMIC-CXR-JPG dataset.
result Insights into effectiveness and disentanglement of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.