Deep Evidence Regression improves credit risk prediction uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in credit risk predictions.
method Applying Deep Evidence Regression to credit risk settings.
result Demonstrated improved prediction of Loss Given Default.
NMDR estimates complex mixtures of distributions efficiently.
problem Estimating complex finite mixtures of distributions in high-dimensional settings.
method Flexible additive predictors, neural networks, and deep learning optimizers.
result Competitive performance in complex scenarios compared to existing approaches.
Stochastic variational inference (SVI) plays a key role in Bayesian deep learning. Recently various divergences have been proposed to design the surrogate loss for variational inference. We present a simple upper bound of the evidence as the surrogate loss. This evidence upper bound (EUBO) equals to the log marginal li…
There is growing evidence that converting targets to soft targets in supervised learning can provide considerable gains in performance. Much of this work has considered classification, converting hard zero-one values to soft labels---such as by adding label noise, incorporating label ambiguity or using distillation. In…
The study proves Gaussian universality of deep random features learning.
problem Understanding the test error in deep random features learning.
method Proving Gaussian universality of test error in ridge regression and arbitrary convex losses.
result Sharp asymptotic formula for test error in ridge regression setting.
Strong inductive biases prevent harmless interpolation in overparameterized models.
problem Understanding the conditions under which overparameterized models can interpolate noise without overfitting.
method Theoretical analysis of high-dimensional kernel regression and deep neural networks, focusing on the role of inductive biases.
result The strength of an estimator's inductive bias determines whether interpolation is harmless or requires fitting noise for good generalization.
Revisits online Laplace methods for neural networks, showing they are sound under certain conditions.
problem Online Laplace methods violate the Laplace approximation's critical assumption.
method Re-derives online Laplace methods, showing they target a variational bound on a mode-corrected variant of the Laplace evidence.
result Online Laplace and its mode-corrected counterpart share stationary points that satisfy the Laplace method's assumption.
Deep learning models improve stock market portfolio returns.
problem Optimizing portfolio returns using deep learning methods.
method Deep neural networks (feedforward and LSTM) applied to stock market excess returns forecasting.
result Deep learning models deliver significant gains in portfolio certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios.
Autoregressive feedback is considered a necessity for successful unconditional text generation using stochastic sequence models. However, such feedback is known to introduce systematic biases into the training process and it obscures a principle of generation: committing to global information and forgetting local nuanc…
ProbFM provides principled uncertainty quantification for financial forecasting.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in financial applications.
method Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Model with Uncertainty Decomposition using Deep Evidential Regression (DER).
result DER maintains competitive forecasting accuracy while providing explicit epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition.
Deterministic neural networks (NNs) are increasingly being deployed in safety critical domains, where calibrated, robust, and efficient measures of uncertainty are crucial. In this paper, we propose a novel method for training non-Bayesian NNs to estimate a continuous target as well as its associated evidence in order …
This paper evaluates a method to improve representations using incomplete external evidence across tasks.
problem Increasing labelled data quality and quantity is challenging due to manual labelling errors and noise.
method Evidence Transfer method using incomplete categorical external evidence.
result Evidence Transfer proves effective and robust against different levels of incompleteness.
We develop unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI), a method that expands the applicability of variational inference by defining an expressive variational family. UIVI considers an implicit variational distribution obtained in a hierarchical manner using a simple reparameterizable distribution whose variational …
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs, but inference in these models has proved challenging. Existing approaches to infe…
Deep GNNs and self-supervision boost graph learning at scale.
problem Efficiently deploying GNNs at large scale remains challenging.
method Two large-scale GNNs: a deep transductive node classifier and a very deep inductive graph regressor.
result Award-level performance on MAG240M and PCQM4M benchmarks.
We revisit logistic regression and its nonlinear extensions, including multilayer feedforward neural networks, by showing that these classifiers can be viewed as converting input or higher-level features into Dempster-Shafer mass functions and aggregating them by Dempster's rule of combination. The probabilistic output…
Bayesian evidence computation revisited for model selection with improper priors.
problem Model selection with improper priors and their impact on Bayesian evidence computation.
method Employing improper priors in model selection problems, distinguishing between Bayesian evidence and fake evidences.
result Diffuse priors asymptotically to infinity do not recover the area under the likelihood.
Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and applicable to multi-predictor…
Adapts linearised Laplace method for deep learning models.
problem Incompatibility of linearised Laplace method with modern deep learning tools.
method Examines and adapts linearised Laplace method for model selection in deep learning.
result Recommendations for better adapting linearised Laplace method to modern deep learning.
We propose a Bayesian evidence framework to facilitate transfer learning from pre-trained deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Our framework is formulated on top of a least squares SVM (LS-SVM) classifier, which is simple and fast in both training and testing, and achieves competitive performance in practice. The…
CLEAR calibrates both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties for better predictive intervals.
problem Balanced uncertainty quantification for reliable predictive modeling.
method CLEAR uses two parameters, γ1 and γ2, to combine aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Clear achieves significant improvements in interval width and coverage.
In this paper we introduce evidence transfer for clustering, a deep learning method that can incrementally manipulate the latent representations of an autoencoder, according to external categorical evidence, in order to improve a clustering outcome. By evidence transfer we define the process by which the categorical ou…
AI detects 38% NFT trades likely manipulated, improving on indirect methods.
problem Detecting crypto wash trading using indirect methods and leaked data.
method Public NFT data analysis, direct estimation, AI-based estimator.
result AI reduces estimation errors in NFT markets, improving on indirect methods.
DLFM models complex systems with uncertainty, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Modeling highly nonlinear dynamical systems with robust uncertainty quantification.
method Deep latent force model (DLFM) using physics-informed kernels derived from ODEs.
result DLFM achieves comparable performance to non-physics-informed models on univariate tasks and captures dynamics in real-world data.
In this paper, we propose a non-parametric conditional factor regression (NCFR)model for domains with high-dimensional input and response. NCFR enhances linear regression in two ways: a) introducing low-dimensional latent factors leading to dimensionality reduction and b) integrating an Indian Buffet Process as a prior…
DNNs improve accuracy by using more evidence from images.
problem Understanding why DNNs generalize well and improving model selection metrics.
method Minimal sufficient views (MSVs) to identify key evidence regions in images.
result DNNs with more evidence regions in images have higher generalization performance.
A novel model uses ODE-based random features to model nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Modeling highly nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty quantification.
method Compositions of physics-informed random features derived from ODEs, combined with deep Gaussian processes and approximate Bayesian inference.
result The model effectively captures nonlinear behavior in real-world multivariate time series data and achieves comparable performance to other models on benchmark tasks.
Revisits Gaussian process model with spherical harmonics for scalable deep learning.
problem Scaling Gaussian process models to large input dimensions with high frequency learning.
method Introduces new kernels related to deep models, variational learning of spherical harmonic phases, and sparseness in eigenbasis.
result Enables scaling to larger input dimensions and learning of high frequency variations.
Deep neural nets can estimate regression with dependent data without the curse of dimensionality.
problem Regression with dependent data and structural assumptions on the regression function.
method Deep recurrent neural network estimate under suitable structural assumptions.
result Deep neural nets can circumvent the curse of dimensionality for regression with dependent data.
A new method improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning, especially for hard-to-label samples.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation for hard-to-label samples in deep learning.
method Introduces Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to dynamically reweight objective loss terms.
result Consistently outperforms traditional evidential neural networks in uncertainty estimation tasks.
We extend the empirical results published in article "Empirical Evidence on Arbitrage by Changing the Stock Exchange" by means of machine learning and advanced econometric methodologies based on Smooth Transition Regression models and Artificial Neural Networks.
Variational Bayesian neural nets combine the flexibility of deep learning with Bayesian uncertainty estimation. Unfortunately, there is a tradeoff between cheap but simple variational families (e.g.~fully factorized) or expensive and complicated inference procedures. We show that natural gradient ascent with adaptive w…
This paper extends neural collapse to regression problems, revealing key features and structures.
problem Understanding the structure learned by deep neural networks in regression tasks.
method Established Neural Regression Collapse (NRC) across different models, analyzing feature and weight alignments.
result Deep neural regression models exhibit a collapsed feature space, aligning with target dimensions and covariances.
Proposes a method to estimate drug sensitivity uncertainty using deep regression forests.
problem Lack of confidence intervals in deep learning models for critical tasks.
method Uses Deep Regression Forests to estimate variance and uncertainty for drug sensitivity prediction.
result Improves efficiency and coverage of uncertainty estimates for drug sensitivity predictions.
New statistical properties for mini-batch Cox-NN optimization.
problem Optimizing deep Cox neural networks using mini-batches.
method Developed mini-batch maximum partial-likelihood estimator (mb-MPLE) for Cox-NN.
result mb-MPLE is consistent and achieves optimal convergence rate.
Deep single-index Fréchet regression for metric space-valued outputs
problem Predicting outputs in non-Euclidean spaces
method DeSI (Deep Single-Index Fréchet Regression)
result Interpretable index direction for inputs
Study assesses neural nets for optimization problems, highlighting SiLU's effectiveness.
problem Using neural nets for optimization problems, especially for accurate approximations.
method Determined best activation function (SiLU) for nonlinear optimization problems. Analyzed function approximations using neural networks and interpolation/regression models.
result Neural nets can deliver competitive zero- and first-order approximations but underperform on second-order approximations.
Deep-HGP uses Bayesian nonparametric approach for complex data regression.
problem Complex data regression with compositional structures.
method Deep Gaussian processes with a squared-exponential kernel, data-driven lengthscale parameters.
result Posterior distribution optimally recovers unknown true regression curve in terms of quadratic loss.
DRE combines DNN with random feature regression for efficient neural network design.
problem Designing and training deep neural networks (DNN) efficiently and effectively.
method DRE architecture with two-layer neural networks, randomly drawn input and output weights trained with linear ridge regression.
result DRE outperforms state-of-the-art DNN in many data sets with lower computational cost.
We propose a novel application of the Simultaneous Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (S-OMP) procedure for sparsistant variable selection in ultra-high dimensional multi-task regression problems. Screening of variables, as introduced in \cite{fan08sis}, is an efficient and highly scalable way to remove many irrelevant variab…
Flexible framework for deep distributional regression models.
problem Learning conditional distributions from semi-structured data.
method Combines additive regression models with deep networks using TensorFlow.
result State-of-the-art predictive performance with interpretability.
Paper improves VAEs using Monte Carlo methods.
problem Improving the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) for VAEs.
method Uses Monte Carlo techniques to improve ELBO, specifically Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) with carefully chosen kernels.
result Demonstrates improved performance on various applications.
Prototype-based generative replay framework for online continual regression.
problem Addressing the challenge of non-stationary data streams in regression tasks.
method Adaptive output-space discretization model for prototype-based generative replay.
result Reduces forgetting and provides more stable performance.
Deep model tackles claim size modeling with quantile-based regression.
problem Actuarial claim size modeling difficulty with no simple distribution.
method Deep composite regression model with quantile splicing point.
result Deep neural network regression models show superiority over classical approaches.
Deep neural networks estimate regression functions on manifolds.
problem Estimating regression functions on manifolds from data.
method Fully connected deep neural networks with ReLU activation, analyzing convergence rates.
result Estimates achieve a rate of convergence dependent on manifold dimension, not predictor dimension.
Paper tackles uncertainty prediction for deep sequential regression.
problem Challenges in generating accurate uncertainty estimates for deep recurrent networks.
method Flexible method that generates symmetric and asymmetric uncertainty estimates without stationarity assumptions.
result Outperforms competitive baselines on both drift and non-drift scenarios.
Large amounts of labeled data are typically required to train deep learning models. For many real-world problems, however, acquiring additional data can be expensive or even impossible. We present semi-supervised deep kernel learning (SSDKL), a semi-supervised regression model based on minimizing predictive variance in…
DFIV uses deep neural nets to learn nonlinear features in IV regression.
problem Learning causal relationships from observational data with nonlinear interactions.
method DFIV trains deep neural nets to define nonlinear features on instruments and treatments, alternating training to compose stages 1 and 2.
result DFIV outperforms state-of-the-art methods on IV benchmarks and off-policy policy evaluation.