A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Bayesian method helps decision-makers find preferred solutions in multi-objective optimization.
In this paper, we demonstrate how to learn the objective function of a decision-maker while only observing the problem input data and the decision-maker's corresponding decisions over multiple rounds. We present exact algorithms for this online version of inverse optimization which converge at a rate of $ \mathcal{O}(1…
We investigate how the choice of decision makers can be varied under the presence of risk and uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the approach we have previously applied to individual decision makers, which we now generalize to the case of decision makers that are members of a society. The approach employs the mathem…
PBO framework optimizes latent preferences over multiple objectives.
A new method for incorporating preferences in multi-objective Bayesian optimization.
New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.
This paper develops a method to approximate the whole Pareto set for expensive multi-objective optimization.
This paper proposes a method for solving optimization problems in which the decision-maker cannot evaluate the objective function, but rather can only express a preference such as "this is better than that" between two candidate decision vectors. The algorithm described in this paper aims at reaching the global optimiz…
Noiseless IO bounds inferred from demonstrations, matching adversarial settings.
This work studies how an AI-controlled dog-fighting agent with tunable decision-making parameters can learn to optimize performance against an intelligent adversary, as measured by a stochastic objective function evaluated on simulated combat engagements. Gaussian process Bayesian optimization (GPBO) techniques are dev…
Enhances portfolio optimization under uncertainty using robust multi-objective methods.
The Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) framework highlights the tension between acquiring new knowledge (Exploration) and leveraging available knowledge (Exploitation). In the classical MAB problem, a decision maker must choose an arm at each time step, upon which she receives a reward. The decision maker's objective is to maxi…
Paper tackles dynamic pricing in a geometrically decaying environment, achieving better occupancy with lower rates.
Study optimality in safety-constrained Markov decision processes using asynchronous value iteration and modified Q-learning.
The paper addresses the difficulty of decision makers trusting AI-assisted predictions and proposes a method to improve confidence values.
Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of upper and lower bounds on the potential outcomes of decision alternatives to assess …
Information-theoretic bounded rationality describes utility-optimizing decision-makers whose limited information-processing capabilities are formalized by information constraints. One of the consequences of bounded rationality is that resource-limited decision-makers can join together to solve decision-making problems …
Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning algorithms to fit predictive models that help decision-makers reason about likely futu…
The paper proposes a method to infer multi-objective rewards from preferences.
Method orders Pareto solutions using transformed objective scores.
In this paper we propose a method for a quantitative estimation of the decision maker's knowledge in the context of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in cases, where the judgment matrix is inconsistent. We show that the matrix of deviation from the transitivity condition corresponds to the rate matrix for transactio…
We evaluate the folk wisdom that algorithmic decision rules trained on data produced by biased human decision-makers necessarily reflect this bias. We consider a setting where training labels are only generated if a biased decision-maker takes a particular action, and so "biased" training data arise due to discriminato…
We consider an adversarial online learning setting where a decision maker can choose an action in every stage of the game. In addition to observing the reward of the chosen action, the decision maker gets side observations on the reward he would have obtained had he chosen some of the other actions. The observation str…
The article presents a translation of some widespread financial terminology into the language of decision theory. For instance, financial leverage can be regarded as an object of choice or a decision. We show how the optics of decision theory allows perceiving the recently introduced metrics of see-through-leverage, wh…
New approach calibrates predictions for better decision-making.
New approach to fairness in machine learning through stochastic optimization.
Bayesian optimization with preference learning identifies preferred solutions in multi-objective problems.
This paper provides a non-robust interpretation of the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem by relating the distributional uncertainties to the chance probabilities. Our analysis allows a decision-maker to interpret the size of the ambiguity set, which is often lack of business meaning, through the chance…
A new parallel BO method with exact gradients for multi-objective optimization.
Auditing fairness of decision-makers is now in high demand. To respond to this social demand, several fairness auditing tools have been developed. The focus of this study is to raise an awareness of the risk of malicious decision-makers who fake fairness by abusing the auditing tools and thereby deceiving the social co…
A key drawback of the current generation of artificial decision-makers is that they do not adapt well to changes in unexpected situations. This paper addresses the situation in which an AI for aerial dog fighting, with tunable parameters that govern its behavior, will optimize behavior with respect to an objective func…
Given a set of human's decisions that are observed, inverse optimization has been developed and utilized to infer the underlying decision making problem. The majority of existing studies assumes that the decision making problem is with a single objective function, and attributes data divergence to noises, errors or bou…
The paper addresses contextual optimization problems with feedback, aiming to minimize regret.
Develops optimal uncertainty quantification for risk-averse decision makers.
Paper uses AI to improve medical diagnosis accuracy.
A model for human-machine decision-making with private info and opacity.
Unified method for learning from selectively labeled data.
Proposes a compensation mechanism for improving individual forecast confidence.
Improves generative models for cost-sensitive decisions.
A key requirement for the current generation of artificial decision-makers is that they should adapt well to changes in unexpected situations. This paper addresses the situation in which an AI for aerial dog fighting, with tunable parameters that govern its behavior, must optimize behavior with respect to an objective …
Paper tackles non-monotonic resource utilization in sequential decision-making.
The stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a common model for sequential decision problems. In the standard setup, a decision maker has to choose at every instant between several competing arms, each of them provides a scalar random variable, referred to as a "reward." Nearly all research on this topic consider…
In many machine learning applications, there are multiple decision-makers involved, both automated and human. The interaction between these agents often goes unaddressed in algorithmic development. In this work, we explore a simple version of this interaction with a two-stage framework containing an automated model and…
The paper addresses frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling in stochastic linear bandits.
Proposes an online model for LLM cascading with adaptive API selection.
Interpretable ML methods for better decision-making with explanations.
We address online linear optimization problems when the possible actions of the decision maker are represented by binary vectors. The regret of the decision maker is the difference between her realized loss and the best loss she would have achieved by picking, in hindsight, the best possible action. Our goal is to unde…
This work explores robust multi-objective optimisation with scalarisation and robustification.