Researchers formalize PD and PFI to relate them to data generating process.
problem Lack of theory linking PD and PFI to data generating process.
method Formalize PD and PFI as estimators of ground truth estimands, account for model variance with learner-PD and learner-PFI.
result PD and PFI estimates deviate from ground truth due to statistical biases, model variance, and Monte Carlo approximation errors.
The study addresses overlooked data-generating processes in time-series asset pricing.
problem The literature on time-series asset pricing overlooks the data-generating processes for factors expressed in return differences.
method The study proposes a new definition of returns and compound returns for factors, and uses OLS with net returns for single-index models.
result OLS with net returns for single-index models leads to inflated alphas, exaggerated t-values, and overestimated Sharpe ratios.
Multitask Gaussian process regression reduces data generation costs for molecular property prediction.
problem Data bottleneck in training surrogate models for molecular properties.
method Multitask Gaussian process regression over heterogeneous data sources (CC and DFT).
result Predicts at CC-level accuracy with over an order of magnitude reduction in data generation cost.
Paper introduces DMPMs for efficient discrete data generation with sharp convergence bounds.
problem Efficient generation of discrete data with theoretical guarantees.
method Discrete Markov Probabilistic Models (DMPMs) operating in bit space with time-reversal process.
result Sharp convergence bounds established under minimal assumptions, competitive performance in discrete data generation.
A large amount of observational data has been accumulated in various fields in recent times, and there is a growing need to estimate the generating processes of these data. A linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) based on the non-Gaussianity of external influences has been proposed to estimate the data-generating …
Paper introduces HGSL for heterogeneous graphs, improving edge type and weight recovery.
problem Learning structure in heterogeneous graphs with multiple node and edge types.
method Proposes H2MN model for DGPs and derives alternating optimization method.
result Demonstrates superior performance on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Study generates synthetic fNIRS data and applies machine learning for improved neuroimaging.
problem Scarcity of high-quality fNIRS neuroimaging datasets.
method Synthetic data generation using Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning.
result Improved accuracy and efficiency of fNIRS tomography.
Discrete diffusion models improve data generation for discrete data like language and graphs.
problem Adapting diffusion models to discrete state spaces for better data generation.
method Formulated as CTMCs, used uniformization of continuous Markov chains for sampling.
result Derive guarantees for sampling from any distribution on a hypercube, aligning with state-of-the-art achievements.
Proposes a new method for causal inference in high-dimensional complex data.
problem Challenges in making causal inference with high-dimensional, nonlinear data.
method Combines deep learning techniques like sparse deep learning and stochastic neural networks.
result Outperforms existing methods in numerical studies.
Differentially private statistical inference using β-divergence.
problem Achieving differential privacy without altering data generation.
method Sampling from a generalised posterior minimizing β-divergence. result More precise inference with broader applicability.
This paper presents two cases of random banking data generators based on migration matrices and scoring rules. The banking data generator is a new hope in researches of finding the proving method of comparisons of various credit scoring techniques. There is analyzed the influence of one cyclic macro--economic variable …
DFM model detects communities in weighted networks without distributional assumptions.
problem Challenges in community detection for weighted networks.
method Distribution-Free Model (DFM) for weighted networks, using spectral clustering.
result Spectral clustering yields consistent community detection under DFM.
New theory improves diffusion models' convergence rates.
problem Understanding and optimizing diffusion models for faster data generation.
method Developed non-asymptotic theory for diffusion models with minimal assumptions.
result Established convergence rates for two diffusion models.
Formalizes identifying information to answer key questions about machine learning from uncertain and novel observations.
problem Understanding and quantifying information from uncertain and novel observations in machine learning.
method Formalizes identifying information, defines hypothesis identification and sample complexity, and proves sample complexity properties for various data-generating processes.
result Proves the information theoretic characteristics of hypothesis identification and sample complexity, and shows how to compute identifying information and novel information.
It is generally difficult to make any statements about the expected prediction error in an univariate setting without further knowledge about how the data were generated. Recent work showed that knowledge about the real underlying causal structure of a data generation process has implications for various machine learni…
Develops a Markov Random Field model for hypergraphs to improve machine learning tasks.
problem Modeling data generation processes on hypergraphs for better machine learning.
method Hypergraph Markov Random Field model using multivariate Gaussian distribution.
result Proposed model enhances algorithm design and outperforms existing methods in structure inference and node classification.
VAEs improve representation learning by inverting the data-generating process through self-consistency.
problem VAEs struggle to invert the data-generating process, yet often succeed in representation learning.
method Studied VAEs in the limit of near-deterministic decoders, proving self-consistency and showing ELBO convergence to a regularized log-likelihood.
result VAEs can perform independent mechanism analysis (IMA), recovering true latent factors under specific conditions.
In unsupervised data generation tasks, besides the generation of a sample based on previous observations, one would often like to give hints to the model in order to bias the generation towards desirable metrics. We propose a method that combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and reinforcement learning (RL) in…
Typically flat filling, linear or polynomial interpolation methods to generate missing historical data. We introduce a novel optimal method for recreating data generated by a diffusion process. The results are then applied to recreate historical data for stocks.
Surveying joint Gaussian graphical models to identify shared structures across domains.
problem Estimating shared structures across different data sources.
method Statistical inference of joint Gaussian graphical models.
result Improved estimation power for high-dimensional data.
Study on parameter dynamics in exponential families under closed-loop learning.
problem Understanding and preventing convergence to biased absorbing states in model parameter estimation.
method Derived equations of motion for parameter dynamics in exponential families. Showed convergence to biased states under maximum likelihood estimation and proposed solutions.
result Closed-loop learning can lead to biased parameter estimates, but can be mitigated by using maximum a posteriori estimation or regularisation.
In recent years, several methods have been proposed for the discovery of causal structure from non-experimental data (Spirtes et al. 2000; Pearl 2000). Such methods make various assumptions on the data generating process to facilitate its identification from purely observational data. Continuing this line of research, …
A graphical model is a structured representation of the data generating process. The traditional method to reason over random variables is to perform inference in this graphical model. However, in many cases the generating process is only a poor approximation of the much more complex true data generating process, leadi…
AR-Sieve Bootstrap improves Random Forest time series prediction accuracy.
problem Inaccurate time series prediction due to inadequate resampling methods.
method Combines Random Forest with AR-Sieve Bootstrap for better resampling.
result AR-Sieve Bootstrap leads to more accurate predictions compared to other methods.
MIRA scores assess conditional distribution accuracy using joint samples.
problem Assessing the accuracy of candidate conditional distributions.
method Analytic expression for Mira score based on equal probability mass regions.
result Mira enables Bayesian model comparison by quantifying alignment with true process.
QTD integrates quantization with diffusion for efficient data generation.
problem Challenges in continuous diffusion models, especially long-range transitions and biases.
method Quantized Transition Diffusion (QTD) integrates data quantization with discrete diffusion dynamics.
result QTD achieves efficient data generation with minimal score evaluations.
In most papers establishing consistency for learning algorithms it is assumed that the observations used for training are realizations of an i.i.d. process. In this paper we go far beyond this classical framework by showing that support vector machines (SVMs) essentially only require that the data-generating process sa…
A new method improves data generation quality by correcting score mismatches.
problem Score mismatch issue in conditional score-based data generation methods.
method Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss for classifier training.
result The proposed method outperforms previous methods on Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks.
We establish conditions for compositional generalization in machine learning.
problem Achieving compositional generalization in machine learning models.
method We reformulate compositionality as a property of the data-generating process and derive mild conditions on the training distribution and model architecture.
result Our theoretical framework enables compositional generalization under mild conditions.
Several techniques for domain adaptation have been proposed to account for differences in the distribution of the data used for training and testing. The majority of this work focuses on a binary domain label. Similar problems occur in a scientific context where there may be a continuous family of plausible data genera…
We propose a simple yet powerful framework for modeling integer-valued data, such as counts, scores, and rounded data. The data-generating process is defined by Simultaneously Transforming and Rounding (STAR) a continuous-valued process, which produces a flexible family of integer-valued distributions capable of modeli…
MARS meta-learns function scores for improved predictive accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Difficulty in specifying expressive priors for Bayesian meta-learning.
method Meta-learning the score function of data-generating process marginals in the function space.
result State-of-the-art predictive accuracy and improved uncertainty estimates.
This study benchmarks tabular data generation models, optimizing hyperparameters and feature encodings.
problem Generating realistic tabular data is challenging due to heterogeneity, non-smooth distributions, and complex dependencies.
method Comprehensive evaluation of five model families on 16 datasets, considering hyperparameters, feature encodings, and architectures.
result Large-scale dataset-specific tuning significantly improves model performance, especially for diffusion-based models.
Paper creates fair synthetic data ensuring equal predictions across sensitive attributes.
problem Ensuring fair predictions across sensitive attributes in synthetic data.
method Equalizing target probability distributions across sensitive attributes in synthetic data generation.
result Synthetic data provides strong fair predictions, equal across all thresholds.
We investigate artificial neural networks as a parametrization tool for stochastic inputs in numerical simulations. We address parametrization from the point of view of emulating the data generating process, instead of explicitly constructing a parametric form to preserve predefined statistics of the data. This is done…
The literature on statistical learning for time series assumes the asymptotic independence or ``mixing' of the data-generating process. These mixing assumptions are never tested, nor are there methods for estimating mixing rates from data. We give an estimator for the β-mixing rate based on a single stationary sample…
New test for point processes without strong model assumptions.
problem Testing local independence in point processes without strong model assumptions.
method Expansion similar to Volterra expansions to represent marginalized intensities.
result Approximation of true marginalized intensity arbitrarily well.
Paper benchmarks machine learning for detecting process curve drifts.
problem Detecting drifts in multivariate manufacturing process data.
method Synthetic data generation and evaluation score introduction.
result Existing algorithms often fail with complex drift scenarios.
We study the sample complexity of private synthetic data generation over an unbounded sized class of statistical queries, and show that any class that is privately proper PAC learnable admits a private synthetic data generator (perhaps non-efficient). Previous work on synthetic data generators focused on the case that …
Oracle-efficient algorithm for offline RL with partial data coverage.
problem Offline reinforcement learning with partial data coverage and constraints.
method PDOCRL, a primal-dual algorithm with decomposed linear-programming formulation.
result Near-optimal, near-feasible policy with \(\widetilde{\mathcal O}(ε^{-2})\) sample guarantee.
This paper provides a guide to feature importance methods for better scientific inference.
problem Limited understanding of data-generating process due to opaque ML model mechanisms.
method Comprehensive review and new proofs of global feature importance methods.
result Facilitates a thorough understanding and concrete recommendations for FI methods.
Nonparametric modeling approaches show very promising results in the area of system identification and control. A naturally provided model confidence is highly relevant for system-theoretical considerations to provide guarantees for application scenarios. Gaussian process regression represents one approach which provid…
This work addresses the following question: Under what assumptions on the data generating process can one infer the causal graph from the joint distribution? The approach taken by conditional independence-based causal discovery methods is based on two assumptions: the Markov condition and faithfulness. It has been show…
We identify direct causes of a target variable from observational data without full DAG identifiability.
problem Learning direct causes of a target variable from observational data.
method Developed algorithms under relaxed identifiability assumptions for one environment without interventions.
result Identifiable set of direct causes from observational data under specific assumptions.
The paper shows how to efficiently generate large Gaussian process samples with reliability guarantees.
problem Generating large-scale Gaussian process samples efficiently and with reliability.
method Demonstrates scaling data generation to large \(n\) while providing high probability guarantees.
result Efficiently generates large Gaussian process samples with reliability guarantees.
Unified framework for generating data by modeling causal and correlational dependencies.
problem Modeling both causal and correlational dependencies among latent factors.
method Causal-Correlation Variational Autoencoder (C2VAE) framework.
result Improves generation quality, disentanglement, and intervention fidelity.
Contrastive learning recovers latent distributions for ambiguous inputs, including aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities, making the true posterior probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty.
method Extended InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions, proving they recover the correct posteriors, including aleatoric uncertainty.
result Contrastive learning encoders can recover the correct posteriors of data-generating processes, including aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space.
Paper proposes a new method to assess synthetic data generators.
problem Assessing the quality of implicit generative models.
method Kernelised Stein Statistic (KSD) test based on non-parametric Stein operator.
result Improved power performance compared to existing approaches.