Develops scenario theory for multi-criteria decision making.
problem Need for robustness assessment with multiple criteria and datasets.
method Collectively treats risks associated with individual criteria for multi-criteria decision problems.
result More accurate robustness certificates and sharper quantification of simultaneous criterion satisfaction.
New algorithm improves knowledge transfer in dynamic decision-making.
problem Utilizing data from existing ventures to improve decision-making in new ventures.
method Proposes Transferred Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm for estimating optimal action-state function Q∗. result Significantly improved final learning error of Q∗ function. Optimal data-driven formulations are found for learning and decision-making with historical data.
problem Designing optimal learning and decision-making formulations from historical data.
method Define a yardstick for measuring formulation quality, then construct an optimal formulation that is uniformly closer to the true cost.
result Existence of three distinct out-of-sample performance regimes with corresponding optimal formulations.
Framework adds human knowledge to AI decisions to improve outcomes.
problem Conflict between AI recommendations and human insights.
method Develops a framework for integrating human knowledge as a guardrail for AI decisions.
result Human knowledge can improve AI decisions, especially in specific pitfalls.
Data-driven decision-making often overestimates benefits due to the winner's curse.
problem Accurate policy evaluation in data-driven decision-making.
method Model-based policy evaluation using estimated models from data.
result Model-based methods can produce large, spurious reported benefits even when true effects are zero.
Proposes CPO framework for robust decision-making with explainable uncertainty regions.
problem Overly conservative uncertainty regions in data-driven optimization lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Conformal-Predict-Then-Optimize (CPO) framework using conditional generative models and visual summaries.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and explainability in decision-making.
Designs a robust data-driven decision-making model to handle multiple overfitting sources.
problem Overfitting in data-driven models due to statistical error, data noise, and data misspecification.
method Holistic distributionally robust optimization formulation combining Kullback-Leibler and Lévy-Prokhorov approaches.
result Guaranteed holistic protection against statistical error, data noise, and data misspecification.
A framework for data-driven decision-making in infectious disease control.
problem Optimizing trade-offs between public health and economic impacts.
method Multi-objective model-based reinforcement learning.
result Pareto-optimal policies minimizing long-term costs.
This study analyzes decision-making in diverse environments where past data may not predict future outcomes.
problem How to make decisions when past data is not indicative of future outcomes due to unobserved confounders.
method Developed a framework to analyze and bound the performance of data-driven policies in heterogeneous environments.
result Established a method to upper bound the asymptotic worst-case regret of policies and analyzed the performance of Sample Average Approximation (SAA).
Data-driven model selection reduces regret in sequential decisions.
problem Optimizing model selection in stochastic environments with bandit feedback.
method Data-driven regret balancing for model selection.
result Meta-learner selects the best base learner based on actual realized regret.
Money analyzed as a multidimensional tensor for better economic policy.
problem Economic complexity and policy responsiveness.
method Tensor analysis of money dynamics.
result Enhanced economic policy design and resilience.
Study integrates machine learning with SAA for optimizing decisions based on uncertain parameters and covariates.
problem Optimizing decisions under uncertain parameters and covariates.
method Data-driven frameworks integrating machine learning prediction models within SAA for scenario generation.
result Consistent and asymptotically optimal solutions under certain conditions, with finite sample guarantees.
DECS tool assesses swap rates of DEXes and Fusion outperforms competitors.
problem Lack of unbiased swap rate comparisons in decentralized finance.
method Swap transaction monitoring and simulation techniques.
result 1inch Classic and Fusion consistently outperform competitors in swap rates.
End-to-end pipeline for data-driven decision making in mixed-integer optimization.
problem Data-driven decision making in mixed-integer optimization with uncertainty.
method Exploiting mixed-integer optimization-representability of machine learning methods, characterizing decision trust regions, and ensembling multiple models.
result Framework generates high-quality prescriptions and controls model robustness.
New framework calibrates decision robustness using inverse conformal risk control.
problem Inadequate robustness levels in decision-making due to ad hoc choices.
method Constructs valid estimators to trace miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier.
result Provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on robustness levels.
The adoption of automated, data-driven decision making in an ever expanding range of applications has raised concerns about its potential unfairness towards certain social groups. In this context, a number of recent studies have focused on defining, detecting, and removing unfairness from data-driven decision systems. …
Interpole learns transparent decision-making policies from data.
problem Understanding human decision-making in opaque environments.
method Interpole combines belief-update and belief-action mapping estimation.
result Interpole provides interpretable models of decision-making behavior.
Paper tackles optimal policy learning with observational data in multi-action scenarios.
problem Optimal policy learning in multi-action settings with observational data.
method Review of estimation approaches, analysis of risk preference, discussion of potential failures.
result Average regret of a policy with multi-valued treatment is contingent on the decision-maker's attitude towards risk.
In most real-world settings such as recommender systems, finance, and healthcare, collecting useful information is costly and requires an active choice on the part of the decision maker. The decision-maker needs to learn simultaneously what observations to make and what actions to take. This paper incorporates the info…
A fundamental question for companies with large amount of logged data is: How to use such logged data together with incoming streaming data to make good decisions? Many companies currently make decisions via online A/B tests, but wrong decisions during testing hurt users' experiences and cause irreversible damage. A ty…
Study shows how AI model can improve decision-making with missing data.
problem Sequential decision-making with missing covariates.
method Introduced model elasticity to quantify imputation discrepancy; used statistical learning and regression for calibration.
result Calibrating pre-trained models can significantly reduce regret in decision-making.
This paper establishes the asymptotic consistency of the {\it loss-calibrated variational Bayes} (LCVB) method. LCVB was proposed in~\cite{LaSiGh2011} as a method for approximately computing Bayesian posteriors in a `loss aware' manner. This methodology is also highly relevant in general data-driven decision-making con…
The paper explores how different loss functions impact reinforcement learning algorithms.
problem Improving reinforcement learning algorithms by optimizing loss functions.
method Comprehensive survey on loss functions in reinforcement learning, proving the benefits of specific loss functions.
result Binary cross-entropy loss leads to first-order bounds and is more efficient than squared loss.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
problem Understanding socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions and climate change.
method Three-step framework: correlation analysis, causal discovery, LLM interpretations.
result Adaptable solutions for data-driven policy-making and strategic decision-making.
Deep learning complements OR/MS for decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Sequential decision-making in uncertain environments.
method Integration of deep learning and OR/MS frameworks.
result Deep learning enhances adaptability and scalability in decision systems.
This paper reviews recent advances in the field of optimization under uncertainty via a modern data lens, highlights key research challenges and promise of data-driven optimization that organically integrates machine learning and mathematical programming for decision-making under uncertainty, and identifies potential r…
The paper provides a method to minimize regret in estimate-then-optimize decision-making.
problem Errors in estimation lead to sub-optimal decisions in data-driven decision-making.
method A novel bound on regret for smooth and unconstrained optimization problems, followed by experimental design to minimize this regret.
result A general procedure for experimental design to minimize regret resulting from estimate-then-optimize.
Supplier learns to price contracts against a learning retailer.
problem Designing data-driven pricing policies for a supplier facing a learning retailer.
method Connecting to non-stationary online learning, proposing dynamic pricing policies for discrete and continuous demand.
result Supplier's pricing policies lead to sublinear regret bounds under various retailer learning policies.
New tool helps analyze complex financial data.
problem Difficulty in comprehending high-dimensional financial data.
method Topological Data Analysis Ball Mapper algorithm.
result Shows new way to see detail in financial data.
The paper clusters group fairness metrics and visualizes them using PCA.
problem Measuring discrimination against socio-demographic groups using multiple metrics.
method Empirical observation and PCA visualization of fairness metrics.
result Group fairness metrics cluster into two or three main clusters.
Given a set of human's decisions that are observed, inverse optimization has been developed and utilized to infer the underlying decision making problem. The majority of existing studies assumes that the decision making problem is with a single objective function, and attributes data divergence to noises, errors or bou…
Many decision problems in science, engineering and economics are affected by uncertain parameters whose distribution is only indirectly observable through samples. The goal of data-driven decision-making is to learn a decision from finitely many training samples that will perform well on unseen test samples. This learn…
A new UCB algorithm for heavy-tailed bandits with near-optimal regret.
problem Sequential decision making in uncertain environments with heavy-tailed rewards.
method Data-driven, distribution-free UCB algorithm combining resampled median-of-means and UCB.
result Near-optimal regret bound for heavy-tailed distributions.
Deep learning, an area of machine learning, is set to revolutionize patient care. But it is not yet part of standard of care, especially when it comes to individual patient care. In fact, it is unclear to what extent data-driven techniques are being used to support clinical decision making (CDS). Heretofore, there has …
New approach tackles decision-making under predictions that shape outcomes.
problem Challenges in learning optimal decision rules when predictions influence outcomes.
method Introduces performative omniprediction, a predictor that encodes optimal decision rules for multiple objectives.
result Efficient performative omnipredictors exist under a natural restriction of outcome performativity.
Generative models help make decisions under changing data distributions.
problem Making decisions based on historical data when the actual data distribution changes.
method Flow- and score-based generative models to represent and transform distributions.
result Generative models can learn nominal uncertainty, create stressed distributions, and produce conditional distributions.
In recent years, automated data-driven decision-making systems have enjoyed a tremendous success in a variety of fields (e.g., to make product recommendations, or to guide the production of entertainment). More recently, these algorithms are increasingly being used to assist socially sensitive decision-making (e.g., to…
Prediction models can harm patients even when accurate, leading to self-fulfilling prophecies.
problem Prediction models can lead to harmful decisions that worsen patient outcomes.
method Formal characterization of harmful prediction models and analysis of their impact.
result Well-calibrated models are ineffective for decision-making as they do not change the data distribution.
This tutorial reviews offline RL methods and challenges in deep learning.
problem Extracting optimal policies from large datasets without online data.
method Review of existing offline RL algorithms and potential solutions.
result Challenges and open problems in modern deep RL methods.
Develops methods for personalized treatment decisions in the presence of unmeasured factors.
problem Personalized treatment decisions in the presence of unmeasured confounding.
method Proximal learning approaches to estimate optimal individualized treatment regimes (ITRs).
result Established identification results for different classes of ITRs, improving decision-making value function.
FST.ai 2.0 improves Taekwondo decision-making with AI, reducing review time and increasing trust.
problem Fair, transparent, and explainable decision-making in Taekwondo.
method Pose-based action recognition, epistemic uncertainty modeling, interactive dashboards.
result 85% reduction in decision review time, 93% referee trust in AI-assisted decisions.
New insights into bias-variance tradeoff for data-driven optimization under local misspecification.
problem Understanding the relative performance of SAA, IEO, and ETO under local misspecification.
method Developed a local misspecification perspective using contiguity theory in statistics.
result Explicit expressions for decision bias and geometric understanding of variance.
Study proposes explainable analytics for manufacturing process planning.
problem Improving data-driven decision-making in manufacturing.
method Combines process mining, machine learning, and XAI. Uses deep learning for prediction and Shapley values/ICE plots for explanations.
result Enhanced decision-making capabilities through local post-hoc explanations.
This paper uses DRL to optimize liquidity in DeFi protocols, making markets more accessible.
problem Optimizing liquidity provisioning in decentralized finance protocols.
method Modeling liquidity provisioning as an MDP, training an agent with PPO to dynamically adjust positions.
result DRL-based strategy outperforms traditional heuristics in fee maximization and impermanent loss mitigation.
New framework tackles stochastic latent subgroup heterogeneity in online decision-making.
problem Stochastic latent heterogeneity in online decision-making where individual responses vary with unobserved subgroups.
method Latent heterogeneous bandit framework using EM-greedy algorithm to learn subgroup probabilities and reward parameters.
result Achieves optimal estimation and classification guarantees, revealing a fundamental stochastic barrier in online decision-making.
Exponential growth in Electronic Healthcare Records (EHR) has resulted in new opportunities and urgent needs for discovery of meaningful data-driven representations and patterns of diseases in Computational Phenotyping research. Deep Learning models have shown superior performance for robust prediction in computational…
Non-parametric bootstrap improves robust portfolio and trading strategy optimization.
problem Mitigating uncertainty in expected returns and covariances in financial decision-making.
method Non-parametric bootstrap framework for robust optimization without distributional assumptions.
result Improved out-of-sample performance with smoother, more stable results.
Paper proposes a method to quantify and explain machine learning uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.
problem Neglect of data-driven estimation, point forecasts without model uncertainty, and lack of explanations.
method Quantile Regression Forests for interval predictions and SHapley Additive Explanations for uncertainty.
result Effective handling of model uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.