New algorithm improves knowledge transfer in dynamic decision-making.
problem Utilizing data from existing ventures to improve decision-making in new ventures.
method Proposes Transferred Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm for estimating optimal action-state function Q∗. result Significantly improved final learning error of Q∗ function. Develops robust MDPs for unknown disturbances with performance guarantees.
problem Unknown disturbance distribution in MDPs.
method Empirical distribution, sublevel set of distance function, weak convergence, concentration inequality.
result Robust optimal value function converges to true optimal value function with increasing sample sizes.
Develops scenario theory for multi-criteria decision making.
problem Need for robustness assessment with multiple criteria and datasets.
method Collectively treats risks associated with individual criteria for multi-criteria decision problems.
result More accurate robustness certificates and sharper quantification of simultaneous criterion satisfaction.
Study on error probabilities of machine learning classification techniques using large deviations theory.
problem Performance analysis of machine learning binary classification techniques.
method Large deviations theory applied to Data-Driven Decision Function (D3F) for error probability analysis.
result Classification error probabilities vanish exponentially, with an asymptotic formula providing precise error rate estimates.
Optimal data-driven formulations are found for learning and decision-making with historical data.
problem Designing optimal learning and decision-making formulations from historical data.
method Define a yardstick for measuring formulation quality, then construct an optimal formulation that is uniformly closer to the true cost.
result Existence of three distinct out-of-sample performance regimes with corresponding optimal formulations.
Optimizes decisions without knowing the true distribution using historical data.
problem Optimizing decisions without knowing the true distribution.
method Combines sampling and bisection search algorithms to solve an optimization problem.
result Proves sufficient conditions for local out-of-sample optimality.
Paper proposes decision-theoretic approach to combat wildfires.
problem Complexity and uncertainty in wildfire management.
method Partially-observable Markov decision process and data-driven model.
result Forecasting model accurately models wildfire spread.
Framework adds human knowledge to AI decisions to improve outcomes.
problem Conflict between AI recommendations and human insights.
method Develops a framework for integrating human knowledge as a guardrail for AI decisions.
result Human knowledge can improve AI decisions, especially in specific pitfalls.
Data-driven decision-making often overestimates benefits due to the winner's curse.
problem Accurate policy evaluation in data-driven decision-making.
method Model-based policy evaluation using estimated models from data.
result Model-based methods can produce large, spurious reported benefits even when true effects are zero.
Study integrates machine learning with SAA for optimizing decisions based on uncertain parameters and covariates.
problem Optimizing decisions under uncertain parameters and covariates.
method Data-driven frameworks integrating machine learning prediction models within SAA for scenario generation.
result Consistent and asymptotically optimal solutions under certain conditions, with finite sample guarantees.
We examine counterfactual explanations for explaining the decisions made by model-based AI systems. The counterfactual approach we consider defines an explanation as a set of the system's data inputs that causally drives the decision (i.e., changing the inputs in the set changes the decision) and is irreducible (i.e., …
This study analyzes decision-making in diverse environments where past data may not predict future outcomes.
problem How to make decisions when past data is not indicative of future outcomes due to unobserved confounders.
method Developed a framework to analyze and bound the performance of data-driven policies in heterogeneous environments.
result Established a method to upper bound the asymptotic worst-case regret of policies and analyzed the performance of Sample Average Approximation (SAA).
The paper explores how different loss functions impact reinforcement learning algorithms.
problem Improving reinforcement learning algorithms by optimizing loss functions.
method Comprehensive survey on loss functions in reinforcement learning, proving the benefits of specific loss functions.
result Binary cross-entropy loss leads to first-order bounds and is more efficient than squared loss.
The paper addresses uncertainty in demand prediction for dynamic pricing.
problem Uncertainty quantification in the demand function for dynamic pricing.
method Developed a debiased approach to construct accurate confidence intervals for the demand function.
result Asymptotic normality guarantee of the debiased estimator for the demand function.
Unified framework for DRO and DTA using Bayesian nonparametrics.
problem Combining DRO and DTA under ambiguity.
method Unified framework using DP and HDPs, with outlier robustness.
result Favorable performance in prediction accuracy and stability.
In stochastic decision problems, one often wants to estimate the underlying probability measure statistically, and then to use this estimate as a basis for decisions. We shall consider how the uncertainty in this estimation can be explicitly and consistently incorporated in the valuation of decisions, using the theory …
Designs a robust data-driven decision-making model to handle multiple overfitting sources.
problem Overfitting in data-driven models due to statistical error, data noise, and data misspecification.
method Holistic distributionally robust optimization formulation combining Kullback-Leibler and Lévy-Prokhorov approaches.
result Guaranteed holistic protection against statistical error, data noise, and data misspecification.
Paper tackles optimal policy learning with observational data in multi-action scenarios.
problem Optimal policy learning in multi-action settings with observational data.
method Review of estimation approaches, analysis of risk preference, discussion of potential failures.
result Average regret of a policy with multi-valued treatment is contingent on the decision-maker's attitude towards risk.
Proposes a method to learn both constraints and objective functions from data.
problem Data-driven inverse optimization for mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs).
method Two-stage approach: first learns constraints, then estimates objective-function weights conditioned on learned constraints.
result Proposes and validates a method for learning both objective functions and constraints from data.
Data-driven model selection reduces regret in sequential decisions.
problem Optimizing model selection in stochastic environments with bandit feedback.
method Data-driven regret balancing for model selection.
result Meta-learner selects the best base learner based on actual realized regret.
Proposes CPO framework for robust decision-making with explainable uncertainty regions.
problem Overly conservative uncertainty regions in data-driven optimization lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Conformal-Predict-Then-Optimize (CPO) framework using conditional generative models and visual summaries.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and explainability in decision-making.
The paper tackles optimal policy learning with asymmetric counterfactual utilities in healthcare decisions.
problem Learning optimal policies from observed data with asymmetric counterfactual utilities.
method The approach involves identifying and minimizing the maximum expected utility loss using statistical decision theory and solving intermediate classification problems.
result One can learn minimax loss decision rules from observed data.
Integrating causal machine learning with inherently interpretable models for decision support.
problem Providing causal insights and decision support through machine learning models.
method Proposing an approach that integrates causal machine learning with inherently interpretable models.
result The proposed approach achieves competitive performance in prediction and what-if analysis while offering transparency on the system structure, causal relationships among variables, and functional forms connecting them.
New framework calibrates decision robustness using inverse conformal risk control.
problem Inadequate robustness levels in decision-making due to ad hoc choices.
method Constructs valid estimators to trace miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier.
result Provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on robustness levels.
Deep learning, an area of machine learning, is set to revolutionize patient care. But it is not yet part of standard of care, especially when it comes to individual patient care. In fact, it is unclear to what extent data-driven techniques are being used to support clinical decision making (CDS). Heretofore, there has …
A new framework optimizes manufacturing decisions with less data and time.
problem Optimizing complex systems with multiple conflicting objectives.
method Data-driven Bayesian optimization using sequential learning.
result The proposed algorithm achieves the actual Pareto front with less data.
The adoption of automated, data-driven decision making in an ever expanding range of applications has raised concerns about its potential unfairness towards certain social groups. In this context, a number of recent studies have focused on defining, detecting, and removing unfairness from data-driven decision systems. …
End-to-end pipeline for data-driven decision making in mixed-integer optimization.
problem Data-driven decision making in mixed-integer optimization with uncertainty.
method Exploiting mixed-integer optimization-representability of machine learning methods, characterizing decision trust regions, and ensembling multiple models.
result Framework generates high-quality prescriptions and controls model robustness.
This paper reviews recent advances in the field of optimization under uncertainty via a modern data lens, highlights key research challenges and promise of data-driven optimization that organically integrates machine learning and mathematical programming for decision-making under uncertainty, and identifies potential r…
A framework for data-driven decision-making in infectious disease control.
problem Optimizing trade-offs between public health and economic impacts.
method Multi-objective model-based reinforcement learning.
result Pareto-optimal policies minimizing long-term costs.
Many decision problems in science, engineering and economics are affected by uncertain parameters whose distribution is only indirectly observable through samples. The goal of data-driven decision-making is to learn a decision from finitely many training samples that will perform well on unseen test samples. This learn…
Money analyzed as a multidimensional tensor for better economic policy.
problem Economic complexity and policy responsiveness.
method Tensor analysis of money dynamics.
result Enhanced economic policy design and resilience.
Given a set of human's decisions that are observed, inverse optimization has been developed and utilized to infer the underlying decision making problem. The majority of existing studies assumes that the decision making problem is with a single objective function, and attributes data divergence to noises, errors or bou…
DECS tool assesses swap rates of DEXes and Fusion outperforms competitors.
problem Lack of unbiased swap rate comparisons in decentralized finance.
method Swap transaction monitoring and simulation techniques.
result 1inch Classic and Fusion consistently outperform competitors in swap rates.
Fair ML systems can be safe ML systems by considering uncertainty.
problem Safety of data-driven decision systems is often neglected.
method Viewing ML systems as socio-technical, uncertainty-aware modeling.
result Fair models should be uncertainty-aware, e.g. through distributional regression.
New method uses FY loss for better inverse optimization.
problem Estimating unknown parameters from noisy and suboptimal solutions.
method Fenchel-Young loss approach for efficient gradient-based optimization.
result Significant improvement in parameter estimation accuracy and computational speed.
This paper establishes the asymptotic consistency of the {\it loss-calibrated variational Bayes} (LCVB) method. LCVB was proposed in~\cite{LaSiGh2011} as a method for approximately computing Bayesian posteriors in a `loss aware' manner. This methodology is also highly relevant in general data-driven decision-making con…
New insights into bias-variance tradeoff for data-driven optimization under local misspecification.
problem Understanding the relative performance of SAA, IEO, and ETO under local misspecification.
method Developed a local misspecification perspective using contiguity theory in statistics.
result Explicit expressions for decision bias and geometric understanding of variance.
Study shows how AI model can improve decision-making with missing data.
problem Sequential decision-making with missing covariates.
method Introduced model elasticity to quantify imputation discrepancy; used statistical learning and regression for calibration.
result Calibrating pre-trained models can significantly reduce regret in decision-making.
Automated data-driven decision making systems are increasingly being used to assist, or even replace humans in many settings. These systems function by learning from historical decisions, often taken by humans. In order to maximize the utility of these systems (or, classifiers), their training involves minimizing the e…
Automated data-driven decision-making systems are ubiquitous across a wide spread of online as well as offline services. These systems, depend on sophisticated learning algorithms and available data, to optimize the service function for decision support assistance. However, there is a growing concern about the accounta…
Develops methods for personalized treatment decisions in the presence of unmeasured factors.
problem Personalized treatment decisions in the presence of unmeasured confounding.
method Proximal learning approaches to estimate optimal individualized treatment regimes (ITRs).
result Established identification results for different classes of ITRs, improving decision-making value function.
Deep neural networks and decision trees operate on largely separate paradigms; typically, the former performs representation learning with pre-specified architectures, while the latter is characterised by learning hierarchies over pre-specified features with data-driven architectures. We unite the two via adaptive neur…
Analyzes COVID-19 data to predict mortality, forecast spread, and optimize resource allocation.
problem Challenges in patient triage, treatment, and care management during the pandemic.
method Integrated four-step approach combining descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics.
result Optimized resource allocation and informed policy decisions.
Develops a new method for optimizing with uncertain data.
problem Uncertainty in real-world optimization problems.
method Combines chance constraints and constraint learning for mixed-integer linear optimization.
result Data-driven solution for setting probabilistic bounds on learned constraints.
Human decision-makers often receive assistance from data-driven algorithmic systems that provide a score for evaluating objects, including individuals. The scores are generated by a function (mechanism) that takes a set of features as input and generates a score.The scoring functions are either machine-learned or human…
New framework tackles stochastic latent subgroup heterogeneity in online decision-making.
problem Stochastic latent heterogeneity in online decision-making where individual responses vary with unobserved subgroups.
method Latent heterogeneous bandit framework using EM-greedy algorithm to learn subgroup probabilities and reward parameters.
result Achieves optimal estimation and classification guarantees, revealing a fundamental stochastic barrier in online decision-making.
Supplier learns to price contracts against a learning retailer.
problem Designing data-driven pricing policies for a supplier facing a learning retailer.
method Connecting to non-stationary online learning, proposing dynamic pricing policies for discrete and continuous demand.
result Supplier's pricing policies lead to sublinear regret bounds under various retailer learning policies.