New approach models how explanations shift with distribution changes.
problem Model performance drops with changing input data distributions.
method Models explanation shifts and compares them to state-of-the-art techniques.
result Modeling explanation shifts better detects out-of-distribution behavior.
This research examines how model explanations change under distribution shifts in tabular data.
problem Detecting distribution shifts in tabular data affecting model performance and explanations.
method Investigates the relationship between model performance and explanation characteristics under distribution shifts.
result Explanation shifts are a better indicator for detecting predictive performance changes than traditional distribution shift techniques.
AdapTable adapts tabular models to shifts without source data, improving HELOC performance.
problem Distribution shifts in tabular data threaten model performance.
method Shift-aware uncertainty calibrator and label distribution handler.
result Up to 16% improvement on HELOC dataset.
Paper proposes SJS model to estimate model performance under covariate and label shifts.
problem Estimating model performance when both covariates and labels shift.
method Sparse Joint Shift (SJS) model and SEES algorithm.
result SEES achieves significant shift estimation error improvements over existing approaches.
RIA method improves OoD generalization for covariate shift.
problem Improving out-of-distribution generalization under covariate shift.
method Adversarial label invariant graph data augmentations for OoD generalization.
result RIA method achieves high accuracy compared to OoD baselines.
Study shows current image classification models lack robustness to real-world dataset shifts.
problem Robustness of current image classification models to natural distribution shifts in real datasets.
method Evaluation of 204 ImageNet models in 213 different test conditions.
result Little to no transfer of robustness from synthetic to natural distribution shifts.
Develops estimators for near-optimal linear regression under distribution shift.
problem Linear regression under distribution shift with scarce target domain data.
method Minimax linear risk estimators covering various transfer learning settings.
result Achieves near-optimal risk for linear regression problems under distribution shift.
Study evaluates methods for improving model robustness to various real-world distribution shifts.
problem Improving model robustness to real-world distribution shifts like geographic changes.
method Introduced new datasets and evaluated existing methods on four types of shifts (style, blurriness, location, camera operation).
result Data augmentations and larger models can improve robustness on real-world distribution shifts, contrary to prior claims.
Proposes a new measure to evaluate stability of statistical parameters under distributional shifts.
problem Difficulty in transferring knowledge across data sets due to distributional changes.
method Introduces a measure of instability quantifying sensitivity of statistical parameters to Kullback-Leibler divergence and directional shifts.
result The proposed measure can elucidate the type of shifts a parameter is sensitive to and improve estimation accuracy under shifted distributions.
New CPS model tackles conditional probability shift in machine learning.
problem Discrepancy between source and target distributions in machine learning.
method Conditional Probability Shift Model (CPSM) using multinomial regression and EM algorithm.
result Superior balanced classification accuracy on target data compared to existing methods.
Paper develops a new method to improve model calibration under distribution shifts.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification with different training and test distributions.
method Develops multi-domain temperature scaling to handle distribution shifts.
result Outperforms existing methods on in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets.
Combines adversarial and interventional robustness for machine learning models.
problem Designing robust models for distribution shifts in machine learning.
method RISe formulation using distributionally robust optimization.
result Demonstrates efficacy of RISe approach with synthetic and real-world datasets.
STAD adapts models to evolving time-based data shifts.
problem Gradual distribution shifts over time challenge existing test-time adaptation methods.
method Bayesian filtering method that learns time-varying dynamics in hidden features.
result STAD excels in handling small batch sizes and label shift on real-world data.
Detects changes in classifier scores to identify shifts in class priors.
problem Label shift changes in classification data.
method Sequential changepoint detection of classifier scores.
result Outperforms other detection procedures in label shift settings.
The paper addresses missing data imputation issues by correcting for distribution shift.
problem Missing data imputation and the resulting distribution shift between observed and full data.
method Formulates imputation as a risk minimization problem and proposes a novel algorithm to correct for distribution shift.
result The proposed algorithm consistently improves imputation accuracy, reducing RMSE and Wasserstein distance by 3% and 7%, respectively.
Proposes FSM-IRL to learn invariant network representations considering feature and structural shifts.
problem Spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics lead to OOD generalization issues in geographic networks.
method Introduces FSM-IRL model that accounts for feature and structural distribution shifts using causal attention and reweighting.
result Demonstrates strong learning capabilities on geographic and social network datasets in OOD scenarios.
Detects which features have shifted in data distributions.
problem Identifying which specific features have caused a distribution shift.
method Formalizes the problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests, proposes non-parametric and parametric statistical tests, and uses a test statistic based on the density model score function.
result Demonstrates methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data.
Paper tackles robust federated learning for affine distribution shifts.
problem Statistical heterogeneity and distribution shifts degrade model performance in federated learning.
method Develops a robust federated learning algorithm (FLRA) for affine distribution shifts.
result FLRA achieves significant performance gains against affine distribution shifts.
Paper tackles high-dimensional quantile regression with distribution shift using transfer learning.
problem Efficiency of knowledge transfer is severely impacted by distribution shift in high-dimensional regression.
method Proposes a novel transferable set and framework for three types of distribution shift: parameter, covariate, and residual.
result Establishes estimation error bounds and source detection consistency for the proposed method.
Study optimal ridge regularization for out-of-distribution prediction.
problem Optimal ridge regularization for predicting out-of-distribution data.
method Established conditions for optimal regularization under covariate and regression shifts, proving monotonic risk in data aspect ratio.
result Negative regularization can be optimal under shifts, even with isotropic or underparameterized training features.
Proposes MSS to identify causal structure from heterogeneous environments.
problem Distribution shifts between environments violate i.i.d. data assumption.
method Sparse mechanism shift hypothesis, score-based approach.
result Identifies entire causal structure with high probability.
BREEDS benchmarks assess model robustness to subpopulation shifts.
problem Measuring model robustness to novel subpopulation shifts.
method Controlled synthesis of realistic distribution shifts using class structure.
result Validated model sensitivity and effectiveness of robustness interventions.
Study quantifies distribution shifts and uncertainties to improve machine learning model robustness.
problem Distribution shifts between training and test datasets impact model generalization and robustness.
method Synthetic data generation and quantitative measures (KL divergence, JS distance, Mahalanobis distance) to assess data similarity and model uncertainty.
result Utilizing statistical measures like Mahalanobis distance helps assess distribution shift and model uncertainty.
This work evaluates graph models' robustness to structural distributional shifts.
problem Evaluating graph models' robustness to structural distributional shifts.
method Proposes a general approach for inducing diverse distributional shifts based on graph structure.
result Simple models often outperform more sophisticated methods on structural distributional shifts.
Method improves simulation accuracy by mitigating distribution shift in hybrid systems.
problem Mitigating distribution shift in machine-learning augmented hybrid simulation.
method Tangent-space regularized estimator to control distribution shift.
result Marked improvements in simulation accuracy, especially for systems with high distribution shift.
Public pretraining improves private model training even in extreme distribution shift scenarios.
problem Improving private model training accuracy in settings with large distribution shift.
method Empirical evaluation and theoretical explanation of public representations improving private training accuracy.
result Public representations can improve private training accuracy by up to 67% over private training from scratch in settings with large distribution shift.
Analysis of ridge regression under concept shift reveals nontrivial effects on generalization performance.
problem Understanding and mitigating the impact of distribution shift in machine learning models.
method Derivation of exact prediction risk expression in the thermodynamic limit for ridge regression under concept shift.
result Reveals a phase transition and nonmonotonic data dependence of test performance under concept shift.
ReVol normalizes stock price features to mitigate distribution shifts, improving prediction accuracy.
problem Distribution shifts in stock price data hinder accurate prediction.
method ReVol uses normalization, attention-based estimation, and geometric Brownian motion.
result ReVol achieves an average improvement of more than 0.03 in IC and over 0.7 in SR.
DSLOB creates synthetic LOB data for benchmarking forecasting algorithms under distributional shifts.
problem Challenges in dealing with out-of-distribution limit order book data.
method Multi-agent market simulator to create labeled synthetic LOB dataset with and without market stress.
result Demonstrates the need for robust forecasting algorithms to handle distributional shifts.
Shifts dataset evaluates uncertainty in real-world tasks across modalities.
problem Lack of standard datasets for evaluating uncertainty estimation and robustness to distributional shift.
method Proposes Shifts Dataset for evaluation of uncertainty estimates and robustness to distributional shift across tabular, audio, text, and sensor data.
result Baseline results for tabular weather prediction, machine translation, and SDC vehicle motion prediction.
Graphs models are vulnerable to distribution shifts, which this work explains and mitigates.
problem Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are susceptible to distribution shift, leading to performance degradation.
method Theoretical analysis quantifying conditional shift, proposing an approach to estimate and minimize it.
result The proposed approach demonstrates up to 10% absolute ROC AUC improvement under various distribution shifts.
Bayesian framework improves uncertainty estimates under covariate shifts.
problem Neural networks' unreliable uncertainty estimates under covariate shifts.
method Adaptive prior conditioned on training and new covariates, amortized variational inference.
result Significantly improved uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.
New method learns distribution shifts caused by predictive models in social computing.
problem Learning distribution shifts due to predictive models in social computing.
method Reverse causal model with microfoundation for agents' actions.
result Effective in minimizing performative prediction risk.
Study addresses RTB model performance drops due to distribution shifts.
problem Distribution shifts between training and target environments in RTB markets.
method Applies Exponential Tilt Reweighting Alignment (ExTRA) algorithm to estimate and correct model weights.
result Demonstrates improved RTB model performance using ExTRA algorithm.
Proposes a framework to assess model robustness to dataset shifts.
problem Evaluating model robustness to changes in setting or population.
method Derives a debiased estimator for analyzing performance on worst-case distributions.
result Demonstrates the estimator can account for realistic shifts in complex distributions.
CTRF combines logged data and randomized experiments for robust prediction.
problem Robust prediction models to handle distributional shifts between training and testing data.
method CTRF uses existing training data and a small amount of randomized experiment data to train a robust model.
result CTRF produces robust predictions and outperforms baseline methods in the presence of feature shifts.
This work introduces a method to attribute model performance drops to distribution shifts.
problem Attributing performance drops of machine learning models to distribution shifts.
method Formulated as a cooperative game, value of a set of distributions is defined as the change in model performance when only that set of distributions changes. Importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions is derived. Quantifying the contribution of each distribution as its Shapley value.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the method on various case studies.
Chunking is a significant CL problem, accounting for half of performance drop, and current methods don't address it.
problem Chunking of data in continual learning.
method Analyzing and addressing the chunking sub-problem in continual learning.
result Current CL algorithms perform poorly on chunking, only as well as plain SGD training when there is no distribution shift.
Unsupervised learning representations generalize better than supervised learning under distribution shifts.
problem Robustness of unsupervised representations to distribution shift.
method Extensive evaluation on synthetic and realistic datasets, including controllable domain generalization datasets.
result Unsupervised representations learned from SSL and AE generalize better than supervised learning under various distribution shifts.
MAGDiff detects data shifts in neural networks without retraining.
problem Neural networks' sensitivity to data distribution shifts.
method Extracts MAGDiff representations from neural networks to detect shifts.
result MAGDiff representations improve data set shift detection.
Paper tackles distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
problem Distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
method Linear structural causal model, invariant covariate representations, data-driven representation learning method.
result Optimizes for a lower-dimensional linear subspace and a prediction model confined to that subspace, achieving nearly ideal gap between target and source risk.
New method uses optimal transport to improve conformal prediction under distribution shifts.
problem Improving conformal prediction's coverage in non-exchangeable settings.
method Optimal transport to estimate and mitigate distribution shifts.
result Estimates and mitigates loss in coverage for arbitrary distribution shifts.
Paper proposes faster adaptation to distribution shifts in online settings.
problem Violation of exchangeability assumption in evolving data environments.
method Online conformal inference with retrospective adjustment.
result Faster adaptation to distributional shifts demonstrated through numerical studies.
Off-policy deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are incapable of learning solely from batch offline data without online interactions with the environment, due to the phenomenon known as \textit{extrapolation error}. This is often due to past data available in the replay buffer that may be quite different from th…
This paper improves test-time adaptation for distribution shifts using confidence maximization and input transformation.
problem Improving deep networks' performance on data shifted from the training distribution.
method Proposes a novel loss function combining confidence maximization and batch-wise entropy maximization with an input transformation module.
result Significantly improves robustness of pretrained networks to corruptions on benchmarks like ImageNet-C.
Partially performative prediction studies how predictive models influence future data.
problem Distribution shift in predictive models due to endogenous and exogenous factors.
method Generalizing performative prediction to capture both endogenous and exogenous sources of distribution shift.
result Developed online analogues of performative stability and optimality for partially performative environments.
Anchor-TS uses median anchoring to improve online decision-making from offline data with distribution shift.
problem Improving online decision-making from offline data with distribution shift.
method Sample-Mean Anchored Thompson Sampling (Anchor-TS) with median anchoring.
result Anchor-TS safely leverages offline data to accelerate online learning and reduces regret.
The paper tackles uncertainty quantification for classification under label shift without assuming i.i.d. data.
problem Uncertainty quantification for classification under label shift in non-i.i.d. settings.
method The paper uses conformal prediction and post-hoc binning for distribution-free UQ, and reweights these methods for label shift.
result The reweighted methods improve UQ performance under label shift, preserving coverage and calibration.