We study the online saddle point problem, an online learning problem where at each iteration a pair of actions need to be chosen without knowledge of the current and future (convex-concave) payoff functions. The objective is to minimize the gap between the cumulative payoffs and the saddle point value of the aggregate …
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48 results for “Cumulative Payoff”
Cumulant expansion is used to derive accurate closed-form approximation for Monthly Sum Options in case of constant volatility model. Payoff of Monthly Sum Option is based on sum of caped (and probably floored) returns. It is noticed, that can be used as a small parameter in Edgeworth expansion. First …
Most decision theories, including expected utility theory, rank dependent utility theory and cumulative prospect theory, assume that investors are only interested in the distribution of returns and not in the states of the economy in which income is received. Optimal payoffs have their lowest outcomes when the economy …
Explicit robust hedging strategies for convex or concave payoffs under a continuous semimartingale model with uncertainty and small transaction costs are constructed. In an asymptotic sense, the upper and lower bounds of the cumulative volatility enable us to super-hedge convex and concave payoffs respectively. The ide…
Response of Firm Agent Network to Exogenous Shockphysics.soc-ph
This paper describes an agent-based model of interacting firms, in which interacting firm agents rationally invest capital and labor in order to maximize payoff. Both transactions and production are taken into account in this model. First, the performance of individual firms on a real transaction network was simulated.…
Algorithm learns to bid optimally in repeated first-price auctions with censored feedback.
problem Learning to bid optimally in repeated first-price auctions with incomplete feedback.
method Developed an algorithm exploiting the specific feedback structure and payoff function of first-price auctions.
result Achieved a near-optimal regret bound for first-price auctions.
Algorithm learns from changing zero-sum games with no regret.
problem Learning in time-varying zero-sum games.
method Developed a single parameter-free algorithm with three performance measures.
result Algorithm recovers best known results for fixed games and adapts to non-stationarity.
This paper studies the bail-out optimal dividend problem with regime switching under the constraint that the cumulative dividend strategy is absolutely continuous. We confirm the optimality of the regime-modulated refraction-reflection strategy when the underlying risk model follows a general spectrally negative Markov…
Proper balance between exploitation and exploration is what makes good decisions, which achieve high rewards like payoff or evolutionary fitness. The Infomax principle postulates that maximization of information directs the function of diverse systems, from living systems to artificial neural networks. While specific a…
A reinforcement learning agent tries to maximize its cumulative payoff by interacting in an unknown environment. It is important for the agent to explore suboptimal actions as well as to pick actions with highest known rewards. Yet, in sensitive domains, collecting more data with exploration is not always possible, but…
We consider the performance of non-optimal hedging strategies in exponential Lévy models. Given that both the payoff of the contingent claim and the hedging strategy admit suitable integral representations, we use the Laplace transform approach of Hubalek et al. (2006) to derive semi-explicit formulas for the resulting…
Optimal exit strategies of CPT gamblers in unfair gambles
problem Optimal exit strategies of gamblers with CPT preferences in games with strictly negative expected payoffs
method Formulating the problem as an optimal stopping problem on asymmetric random walks, applying geometric transformation, randomized strategies, and changing the decision variable
result The unfair problem in the infinite time horizon has finite values for a wide range of CPT parameter specifications
Spectral banditsstat.ML
Bandit problem on graphs aims to recommend items with high expected ratings.
problem Online learning problems involving graphs, such as content-based recommendation.
method Study of a bandit problem on graphs, introducing effective dimension and proposing algorithms.
result Proposed algorithms scale linearly and sublinearly in the effective dimension, improving cumulative regret.
Replicating Market Makersq-fin.MF
Method constructs CFMMs matching desired payoffs.
problem Creating CFMMs with specific payoff functions.
method Uses convex analysis and Fenchel conjugacy.
result Every concave, nonnegative, nondecreasing, 1-homogeneous payoff has a corresponding convex CFMM.
Optimal payoff choice constrained by Bregman-Wasserstein divergence.
problem Maximizing utility under a deviation constraint from a benchmark.
method Solving the problem using Bregman-Wasserstein divergence with a convex function φ.
result Provided the optimal payoff choice in this setting.
Optimal portfolio yields a digital option payoff.
problem Portfolio optimization under generalized dual theory of choice.
method Characterized optimal solution and derived it in closed form.
result Payoff is a digital option that yields in-the-money payoff in good market scenarios.
Study finds cheapest possible payoff under ambiguity, linking to maxmin expected utility.
problem Finding cost-efficient payoffs in uncertain market conditions.
method Developed a new concept of robust cost-efficient payoff and linked it to maxmin expected utility.
result Solutions to maxmin robust expected utility are robust cost-efficient.
We introduce signature payoffs, a family of path-dependent derivatives that are given in terms of the signature of the price path of the underlying asset. We show that these derivatives are dense in the space of continuous payoffs, a result that is exploited to quickly price arbitrary continuous payoffs. This approach …
The paper uncovers the impact of price and payoff autocorrelations in multi-period asset pricing models.
problem Hidden dependence of asset pricing models on price and payoff autocorrelations.
method Obtained approximations of the basic pricing equation describing various parameters.
result Valid results for other pricing models like ICAPM and APM.
New method uses neural networks for better financial hedging.
problem Spanning multi-asset payoffs with vanilla options.
method One-hidden-layer feedforward neural networks for numerical solution.
result Better hedging results with neural networks compared to single-asset approaches.
Paper shows how to replicate payoffs without oracles in CFMMs.
problem Replicating payoffs without oracles in CFMMs.
method Using liquidity provider shares in CFMMs to match any monotonic payoff.
result Explicit method and formula for trading functions and earnings.
We study a non-parametric multi-armed bandit problem with stochastic covariates, where a key complexity driver is the smoothness of payoff functions with respect to covariates. Previous studies have focused on deriving minimax-optimal algorithms in cases where it is a priori known how smooth the payoff functions are. I…
New method optimizes resource allocation for uncertain tasks.
problem Optimal resource allocation for uncertain tasks with limited capacity.
method Formulated as an assignment problem, optimized using learning to rank with net discounted cumulative gain.
result Achieves higher expected profit and precision compared to classification methods.
Can one parallelize complex exploration exploitation tradeoffs? As an example, consider the problem of optimal high-throughput experimental design, where we wish to sequentially design batches of experiments in order to simultaneously learn a surrogate function mapping stimulus to response and identify the maximum of t…
Develops a new method for robust risk measurement by averaging nearby payoffs.
problem Measuring risk under uncertainty with a focus on robustness.
method Averaging nearby payoffs weighted by a chosen metric.
result The method leads to a convex risk measure and provides stability under large neighborhoods.
Agent optimizes perpetual contract liquidation with transaction costs and risk.
problem Optimizing perpetual contract liquidation with transaction costs and risk.
method Solving stochastic control problem for optimal trading strategy.
result Closed-form expression and approximations for optimal strategy.
Multi-armed bandit problems are the most basic examples of sequential decision problems with an exploration-exploitation trade-off. This is the balance between staying with the option that gave highest payoffs in the past and exploring new options that might give higher payoffs in the future. Although the study of band…
New findings show pure strategy equilibria are more robust in a war of attrition game.
problem Analyzing a game of war of attrition under complete information.
method Examined the stability of equilibria in pure and mixed strategies under varying payoffs.
result Pure strategy equilibria are more robust to perturbations of the canonical model.
We study the use of the multilevel Monte Carlo technique in the context of the calculation of Greeks. The pathwise sensitivity analysis differentiates the path evolution and reduces the payoff's smoothness. This leads to new challenges: the inapplicability of pathwise sensitivities to non-Lipschitz payoffs often makes …
Study optimal stopping for diffusion processes using data-driven methods.
problem Optimal stopping for diffusion processes under unknown conditions.
method Data-driven approach, deriving upper and lower bounds on simple and cumulative regret.
result Verified minimax optimality and improved convergence rates.
New algorithms for stochastic linear bandits with heavy-tailed payoffs achieve nearly optimal regret.
problem Stochastic linear bandits with heavy-tailed payoffs.
method Median of means and dynamic truncation.
result Sublinear regret bound of for .
The game-theoretic risk management framework put forth in the precursor work "Towards a Theory of Games with Payoffs that are Probability-Distributions" (arXiv:1506.07368 [q-fin.EC]) is herein extended by algorithmic details on how to compute equilibria in games where the payoffs are probability distributions. Our appr…
Wartime Controls, Political Connections, and the Pricing of Zaibatsu Rents in Japan, 1930-1943econ.GN
The study analyzes how wartime controls influenced zaibatsu stock prices in Japan.
problem How wartime economic controls affected zaibatsu stock prices in Japan.
method Developed a four-portfolio asset-pricing model and used a CAPM-AR(p)-SV event-study framework.
result Wartime economic controls influenced stock prices through financing wedges and zaibatsu affiliation.
Study of zero-sum games with noisy observations and commitments.
problem Analyzing zero-sum games with noisy observations and commitments.
method Modeling a zero-sum game with a leader committing to a strategy and a follower observing a noisy version of the leader's action.
result Observing the leader's action is either beneficial or immaterial for the follower, and the equilibrium payoff is bounded.
Study bandit problem on smooth graph functions for recommender systems.
problem Online learning problems involving graphs, like content-based recommendation.
method Introduced spectral bandit problem and two algorithms that scale linearly in effective dimension.
result Learned user preferences for thousands of items from just tens nodes evaluations.
This paper studies robust payoff allocation in submodular games, especially against replication.
problem Payoff allocation in submodular games, especially robustness against replication.
method Systematically studied replication manipulation in submodular games, introduced replication robustness metric, and validated with empirical ML data market.
result Conditions characterizing robustness of semivalues in submodular games.
We study the problem of repeated play in a zero-sum game in which the payoff matrix may change, in a possibly adversarial fashion, on each round; we call these Online Matrix Games. Finding the Nash Equilibrium (NE) of a two player zero-sum game is core to many problems in statistics, optimization, and economics, and fo…
Study on optimal information acquisition in Kyle model with entropy cost.
problem Optimal information acquisition in Kyle model with entropy cost.
method Continuous signals are optimal, and any signal with a logit posterior distribution yields the same ex-ante value.
result Posterior expected payoff becomes normally distributed as information acquisition cost increases.
We derive a formula for liquidity providers' payoff on DEXs, linking it to volatility.
problem Liquidity providers on DEXs are undercompensated for their service.
method We derive a payoff formula for liquidity providers on DEXs, assuming geometric Brownian price movements and zero arbitrage.
result The payoff from liquidity fees is a near-linear function of volatility.
In an online contract selection problem there is a seller which offers a set of contracts to sequentially arriving buyers whose types are drawn from an unknown distribution. If there exists a profitable contract for the buyer in the offered set, i.e., a contract with payoff higher than the payoff of not accepting any c…
Dependence bounds for the difference of stop-loss payoffs on the difference of two random variablesq-fin.PR
The paper examines bounds for stop-loss payoffs using transformed random variables.
problem Bounding stop-loss payoffs for a difference of two random variables.
method Analyzes crossing points of cdfs of original and transformed random variables.
result Unique pairwise crossing points for mortality-linked securities under symmetric copulas.
New decision-theoretic calibration error metric improves prediction reliability.
problem Improving the reliability of predictions for decision-making.
method Proposed Calibration Decision Loss (CDL) and an efficient algorithm to achieve near-optimal CDL.
result Near-optimal CDL guarantees vanishing payoff loss from miscalibration.
Quantum Monte Carlo speeds up option pricing for complex payoff functions.
problem Efficiently pricing options with complex payoff functions using quantum computing.
method Developed a quantum Monte Carlo algorithm for multidimensional Black-Scholes PDEs.
result Proved polynomial computational complexity and speed-up over classical methods.
New method uses DistRL to estimate entire payoff distribution for financial derivatives.
problem Traditional methods focus on expected option value; this tackles risk-aware pricing.
method Reinterprets and proposes a framework using Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL).
result Demonstrates enhanced risk-aware pricing and uncertainty quantification on Asian options.
Motivated by the observation that overexposure to unwanted marketing activities leads to customer dissatisfaction, we consider a setting where a platform offers a sequence of messages to its users and is penalized when users abandon the platform due to marketing fatigue. We propose a novel sequential choice model to ca…
We consider a sequential learning problem with Gaussian payoffs and side information: after selecting an action , the learner receives information about the payoff of every action in the form of Gaussian observations whose mean is the same as the mean payoff, but the variance depends on the pair (and may…
Novel approach to financial derivatives pricing using rough path theory.
problem No-arbitrage conditions in financial markets necessitating precise integration methods.
method Developed a polynomial-based approximation class for rough path functionals, extending to non-geometric rough paths.
result Motivated a hypothesis for payoff functionals in financial markets, facilitating analysis.
New algorithms improve on bandit feedback in matrix games with unknown payoff matrices.
problem Improving performance in matrix games with unknown payoff matrices and bandit feedback.
method Regret analyses of variants of UCB and K-learning.
result New algorithms achieve lower regret compared to adversarial bandit algorithms.