Paper develops a credit scoring system for micro-loans, addressing interpretability and data quality challenges.
problem Developing a credit scoring system for micro-loans with interpretability and data quality concerns.
method Introduces semi-supervised algorithm to aid model development and evaluates its performance.
result Semi-supervised algorithm aids in model development and demonstrates improved performance.
Study finds strict collection policies improve portfolio quality of microfinance banks.
problem Improving portfolio quality of microfinance banks through better credit collection policies.
method Multi-stage sampling, regression analysis, descriptive statistics.
result Collection policy has a higher effect on portfolio quality.
This study uses machine learning to predict sovereign credit ratings and identifies key factors.
problem Predicting sovereign credit ratings and identifying important factors.
method Used Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naïve Bayes (NB), and Ordered Logit (OL) models.
result MLP is the best model for predicting sovereign credit ratings with a 68% accuracy.
Credit scores misclassify borrowers, especially minorities, leading to inequitable access.
problem Misclassification of borrowers by credit scores, particularly minorities.
method Benchmarked a widely used credit score against a machine learning model.
result Machine learning model improves predictive accuracy for low-quality data, leading to more equitable access.
Enhances initial margin to manage warehoused credit risk effectively.
problem Limited access to hedging services for high-risk counterparties.
method Extend CVA risk-neutral framework to compute Specific Initial Margin (SIM) based on counterparty credit quality.
result Transforms effective credit rating to AAA, ensuring operational viability of warehoused risk management.
In the second part of our series we suggest new definitions of credit bond duration and convexity that remain consistent across all levels of credit quality including deeply distressed bonds and introduce additional risk measures that are consistent with the survival-based valuation framework. We then show how to use t…
Using particle system methodologies we study the propagation of financial distress in a network of firms facing credit risk. We investigate the phenomenon of a credit crisis and quantify the losses that a bank may suffer in a large credit portfolio. Applying a large deviation principle we compute the limiting distribut…
Derives metrics for DeFi vaults, addressing credit risk.
problem Credit risk in DeFi lending vaults.
method Three-level decomposition of vault risk; six structural features identified.
result Estimation architecture for credit risk metrics.
In this paper we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on some dynamics parameters, and we show how to calibrate the model using a chosen number of Credit Default Swap (CDS) market quotes. We essentially show how to use structural models with a calibration capability that …
AI enhances bank credit risk management through deep learning and data analysis.
problem Inaccurate credit decisions and potential risks in bank credit risk management.
method Innovative application of AI technology, including deep learning and big data analysis.
result AI provides more accurate and comprehensive credit decision support, reducing risks and losses.
Synthetic data improves credit scoring models' performance without compromising borrower privacy.
problem Scarcity of real data for credit scoring models due to privacy concerns.
method Privacy-preserving training with synthetic data.
result Credit scoring models trained with synthetic data show a reduction of 3% in AUC and 6% in KS compared to real data models.
We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation between sector spreads and rate shifts. However, we also observe that the correl…
EWS-GCN improves credit scoring by analyzing money transfer connections.
problem Improving credit scoring in transactional banking data.
method Edge Weight-Shared Graph Convolutional Network (EWS-GCN) combining graph and recurrent neural networks.
result EWS-GCN outperforms state-of-the-art models in credit scoring.
Unified framework models credit cycles and systemic risk.
problem Inadequate classical models for bubbles, crises, and credit cycles.
method Marshall-Walras price formation process and mathematical formalism.
result Unified framework reflects different economic states and systemic risk.
Paper proposes LIME for explaining machine learning credit risk predictions.
problem Lack of explainability in machine learning models for credit risk.
method Uses LIME technique to explain machine learning predictions.
result LIME improves explainability of machine learning models in credit risk.
For credit risk management purposes in general, and for allocation of regulatory capital by banks in particular (Basel II), numerical assessments of the credit-worthiness of borrowers are indispensable. These assessments are expressed in terms of probabilities of default (PD) that should incorporate a certain degree of…
A counterparty credit limit (CCL) is a limit that is imposed by a financial institution to cap its maximum possible exposure to a specified counterparty. CCLs help institutions to mitigate counterparty credit risk via selective diversification of their exposures. In this paper, we analyze how CCLs impact the prices tha…
This paper improves bond market making by adjusting hit-ratios for client flow quality.
problem Economic misleading of raw hit-ratios in corporate bond market making.
method Stochastic-control framework with residual-quality-adjusted hit-ratio.
result Optimal quotes decompose into various components, improving service/economics frontier.
DAISYnt evaluates synthetic data quality and privacy in regulated domains.
problem Balancing data quality and privacy in regulated domains.
method Developed a suite of advanced tests (DAISYnt) to evaluate synthetic data quality and privacy.
result DAISYnt sets a de facto standard for synthetic data evaluation in regulated domains.
Paper compares AI models for credit scoring and explains them.
problem Lack of interpretability in advanced AI models hinders credit risk management.
method Comparison of logistic regression, AI algorithms, and techniques to interpret AI models.
result Advanced tree-based models provide the best prediction of client default.
We introduce a dynamic model of the default waterfall of derivatives CCPs and propose a risk sensitive method for sizing the initial margin (IM), and the default fund (DF) and its allocation among clearing members. Using a Markovian structure model of joint credit migrations, our evaluation of DF takes into account the…
A scalable model estimates revenue uncertainty for SMEs.
problem Estimating revenue uncertainty for SMEs to manage credit limits.
method Scalable Natural Gradient Boosting Machines.
result The method distinguishes accurate from inaccurate revenue forecasts.
A new method uses persistent homology to assess auto-encoders' latent manifold quality.
problem Chaos in auto-encoders' latent manifold and failure of current distance measures.
method Persistent Homology for Wasserstein Auto-Encoders (PHom-WAE).
result PHom-WAE improves auto-encoders' performance in credit card transaction data.
MassMutual uses neural network embeddings from financial news to predict downgrade risk.
problem Predicting downgrade risk in financial institutions using alternative data sources.
method Proposes a predictive downgrade model using neural network embeddings of financial news.
result Improves performance of benchmark model by more than 5 percent in terms of AUC and recall rate.
Agents buy and sell services. All services are of equal quality. Buyers choose sellers at random. Monetary and fiscal policies are imposed by a central bank and a central government. Credit is supplied by a commercial banking system. Propensities to buy, sell, and lend depend on account balances, interest rates, tax ra…
Examines climate financing for renewable energy projects using structured funds.
problem Valuation of structured climate financing on diverse renewable energy asset pools.
method Bottom-up Gaussian copula framework with LH++ model for diversification analysis.
result Shows how the mix of indirect and direct RE investments affects the sensitivity of the senior tranche.
New algorithm learns reward signals from episodic returns for better reinforcement learning.
problem Difficulty in designing reward functions for real-world reinforcement learning tasks.
method Introduces a new algorithm that decomposes episodic returns into time-step rewards using deep neural networks.
result Learning reward signals from episodic returns improves reinforcement learning efficiency.
Graph neural network predicts new bank client interactions using transaction data.
problem Predicting new interactions in the network of bank clients.
method Proposes a graph neural network model that uses both network topology and time-series data.
result The model outperforms existing approaches in link prediction and credit scoring.
Proposes a method to infer the distributional impacts of predictive models on stakeholders.
problem The influence of predictive models on target variable distribution, leading to performative prediction.
method Modeling agents' responses as a cost-adjusted utility maximization problem and using optimal transport to align pre- and post-model distributions.
result Provides estimates for the cost associated with these responses and demonstrates the quality of these estimates.
Study shows how to better estimate credit provisions and economic capital.
problem Estimating credit provisions and economic capital accurately.
method Using supermodularity ordering properties and elliptically distributed latent factors.
result Convex risk measures of credit losses are nondecreasing w.r.t. various covariances.
Study shows how macroprudential policies affect credit growth in Israel, especially in housing and business sectors.
problem Impact of macroprudential policies on credit growth in Israel.
method Bank-level panel data analysis for Israel, 2004-2019; interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies.
result Accommodative monetary policy interacts with macroprudential policies to increase total credit growth.
Unified view on selective credit assignment for reinforcement learning.
problem Efficient credit assignment in reinforcement learning.
method Unified temporal-difference algorithms with selective weightings.
result New algorithms for backward credit assignment and off-policy learning.
We apply Geometric Arbitrage Theory to obtain results in mathematical finance for credit markets, which do not need stochastic differential geometry in their formulation. We obtain closed form equations involving default intensities and loss given defaults characterizing the no-free-lunch-with-vanishing-risk condition …
This paper develops a machine learning model to assess credit risk in UAE commercial banks.
problem Lack of precision in conventional credit rating tools for accurate credit risk prediction.
method Constructs a credit risk assessment model using Linear Discriminant Analysis.
result Demonstrates improved accuracy in predicting good and bad creditors compared to conventional methods.
Study evaluates SHAP for credit card default model consistency.
problem Model transparency and fairness in credit card default prediction models.
method Evaluates SHAP stability in credit card default prediction models via a case study.
result SHAP consistency is related to variable importance level.
FOCUS addresses label quality disparity in FL for healthcare applications.
problem Label quality disparity in federated learning for healthcare applications.
method FOCUS maintains a small set of benchmark samples and computes the mutual cross-entropy between local and benchmark datasets to quantify label credibility. It then adjusts client weights based on credibility values.
result FOCUS effectively reduces the impact of noisy labels from clients, improving model performance.
Large corporate credit models may be adapted for small business risk assessment.
problem Limited data and lack of credit analysts for small businesses.
method Adapting large corporate credit risk models for small businesses.
result Adapted models can predict small business credit risk effectively.
Improves text-to-image diffusion models using GFlowNets.
problem Aligning diffusion models with text descriptions.
method Post-training diffusion models with GFlowNets to generate high-reward images.
result Effective alignment of large-scale text-to-image diffusion models with reward information.
The existence of asymmetric information has always been a major concern for financial institutions. Financial intermediaries such as commercial banks need to study the quality of potential borrowers in order to make their decision on corporate loans. Classical methods model the default probability by financial ratios u…
Extracts credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
problem Investors do not fully internalize credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
method Develops a novel technique to extract credit-relevant information from earnings call text.
result The extracted information forecasts future credit spread changes and firm profitability.
Complex network theory models China's credit system to control systemic risk.
problem Insufficient understanding of China's credit network structure during financial crises.
method Constructed bipartite financial institution-firm network and analyzed its typological properties.
result Credit network structure can amplify local risks to the whole economy.
Bayesian and simulation methods predict credit default probabilities.
problem Assessing credit risk in large customer portfolios.
method Two-phase approach: Bayesian estimation followed by Monte Carlo simulations.
result Estimation of true default rates through simulations.
Paper simplifies default process modeling and credit valuation.
problem Modeling and pricing derivative securities with credit risk.
method Integrates default process, probability, and correlation into a unified framework.
result Risky valuation is Martingale in the proposed model.
Study optimizes classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
problem Optimizing classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
method Three distinct models: response, risk, and response-risk. Optimized various performance metrics.
result Random Forest classifier achieves highest accuracy (83.2%) in multi-class response-risk model.
CERM calculates climate risks in bank loans.
problem Estimating climate risks in bank credit portfolios.
method Adapts credit risk models to include physical and transition risks.
result Calculates incremental credit losses due to climate risks.
We consider the problem of constructing an appropriate multivariate model for the study of the counterparty credit risk in credit rating migration problem. For this financial problem different multivariate Markov chain models were proposed. However the markovian assumption may be inappropriate for the study of the dyna…
Credit risk management in Italy is characterized, in the period June 2008 to June 2012, by frequent (frequency=0.5 cycles per year) and intense (peak amplitude: mean=39.2 billion Euros, s.e.=2.83 billion Euros) quarterly contractions and expansions around the mean (915.4 billion Euros, s.e.=3.59 billion Euros) of the n…
Counterparty Risk FAQ: Credit VaR, PFE, CVA, DVA, Closeout, Netting, Collateral, Re-hypothecation, WWR, Basel, Funding, CCDS and Margin Lendingq-fin.PR We present a dialogue on Counterparty Credit Risk touching on Credit Value at Risk (Credit VaR), Potential Future Exposure (PFE), Expected Exposure (EE), Expected Positive Exposure (EPE), Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA), Debit Valuation Adjustment (DVA), DVA Hedging, Closeout conventions, Netting clauses, Collateral …