Study on conditions for achieving optimal robustness in statistical estimators.
problem Achieving the optimal robustness of estimators in statistical models.
method Developed a Wasserstein analogue of the Cramer-Rao inequality and investigated conditions for achieving the Wasserstein-Cramer-Rao lower bound.
result Conditions for the existence of asymptotically efficient estimators in one-parameter models and location-scale families.
The relative α-entropy is the Rényi analog of relative entropy and arises prominently in information-theoretic problems. Recent information geometric investigations on this quantity have enabled the generalization of the Cramér-Rao inequality, which provides a lower bound for the variance of an estimator of an escort…
New theory of sensitivity for unbiased estimators using Wasserstein geometry.
problem Estimating the instability of estimators under small perturbations.
method Developed a new theory based on Wasserstein geometry, analogous to classical Cramér-Rao theory.
result Wasserstein-Cramér-Rao lower bound for sensitivity of unbiased estimators.
Study non-asymptotic estimation bounds for LTI models with Gaussian noise.
problem Estimating parameters of LTI models with non-asymptotic error bounds.
method Sharp non-asymptotic lower bounds using Cramér-Rao and van Trees inequalities, concentration results, and differential geometric constructions.
result Sharp and rate-optimal lower bounds for mean square estimation risk.
Geometrically refines Cramér-Rao bound using extrinsic manifold curvature.
problem Improving estimator efficiency in non-asymptotic settings.
method Incorporates curvature-aware corrections based on extrinsic geometry of statistical model manifold.
result Meaningful tightening of estimator variance bounds.
We study the geometry of probability distributions with respect to a generalized family of Csiszár f-divergences. A member of this family is the relative α-entropy which is also a Rényi analog of relative entropy in information theory and known as logarithmic or projective power divergence in statistics. We apply E…
This work introduces a new data-driven estimator for the Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound using score matching.
problem Benchmarking the performance of statistical estimators and providing a principled metric for system design and optimization.
method Score matching technique to estimate the Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound from training data.
result Developed novel non-asymptotic bounds on the score matching error and the Bayesian CRB estimator.
CD algorithm achieves near-optimal convergence rate for unnormalized models.
problem Training unnormalized models with high efficiency.
method Non-asymptotic analysis of contrastive divergence algorithm.
result CD can achieve O(n−1/2) convergence rate under regularity assumptions. Novel method uses Bayesian filters and PCRLB for state estimation of option prices.
problem Estimating unobserved latent variables from option prices.
method Posterior Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (PCRLB) based adaptive state estimation using various Bayesian filters.
result Proposed method outperforms individual filters and improves forecasting.
Estimates chirp signal frequencies using probabilistic models.
problem Estimating instantaneous frequencies of chirp signals when true forms are unknown.
method Non-linear Gaussian processes and stochastic filters/smothers for posterior estimation.
result The method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world datasets.
We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation for reinforcement learning, where the goal is to estimate the expected reward of a target policy π using offline data collected by running a logging policy μ. Standard importance-sampling based approaches for this problem suffer from a variance that scales exponentia…
Efficient tensor decomposition for count data models achieves near-optimal multiway analysis.
problem Efficient tensor decomposition for count data models.
method Rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator for tensor decomposition.
result Achieves multiway analysis with variance matching Cramér-Rao Lower Bound up to constants and logarithmic factors.
We improve maximum likelihood for location estimation in finite samples.
problem Estimating a parameter from samples with unknown or varying distribution.
method Use smoothed Fisher information for finite sample size and varying distributions.
result Recover optimal estimation theory for finite n and arbitrary f. Paper extends Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound with geometric considerations.
problem Estimation of covariance matrices with geometric structures.
method Intrinsic Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound with Riemannian geometry.
result Performance bounds for covariance matrix estimation.
In this paper, we derive a useful lower bound for the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL-divergence) based on the Hammersley-Chapman-Robbins bound (HCRB). The HCRB states that the variance of an estimator is bounded from below by the Chi-square divergence and the expectation value of the estimator. By using the relation b…
This paper proposes an original Riemmanian geometry for low-rank structured elliptical models, i.e., when samples are elliptically distributed with a covariance matrix that has a low-rank plus identity structure. The considered geometry is the one induced by the product of the Stiefel manifold and the manifold of Hermi…
Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in 2016? and 2) how to improve the accuracies of opinion polls? In this paper, we …
A new method for state estimation in state-space models using incomplete data.
problem State estimation in nonlinear state-space models with incomplete observations.
method Statistical analysis of incomplete observations, score function, observed information matrices, EM-gradient-particle filtering.
result Maximum likelihood estimation of state-vector with explicit form of observed information matrix.
A new method for estimating adversarial strategies in nonlinear systems.
problem Inferring an intelligent adversarial agent's strategy in highly nonlinear systems.
method Formulated inverse cognition as a nonlinear Gaussian state-space model and developed an inverse UKF (IUKF) system.
result The estimation error of IUKF converges and closely follows the recursive Cramér-Rao lower bound.
The report studies ranking from pairwise comparisons in graphs, achieving optimal error bounds and proposing efficient algorithms.
problem Ranking items from pairwise comparisons in general graphs and graphs with locality.
method Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and preconditioned gradient descent for general graphs; divide-and-conquer algorithms for graphs with locality.
result MLE achieves optimal error bounds in general graphs and identifies conditions for locality.
Paper provides a new lower bound on MMSE using Poincaré inequality.
problem Estimating X from noisy Y in exponential family noise.
method Alternative MMSE representation + Poincaré inequality.
result New lower bound on MMSE holds for all distributions.
This work uses Sylvester normalizing flows for more accurate metabolite quantification in MRS.
problem Challenges in accurate metabolite quantification in MRS due to spectral overlap, low SNR, and artifacts.
method Bayesian inference framework with physics-informed Sylvester normalizing flows.
result Accurate metabolite quantification, well-calibrated uncertainties, and insights into parameter correlations and multi-modal distributions.
Proposes a learned Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound for unknown measurement models.
problem Computing the Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound requires full knowledge of priors and measurement distributions.
method Introduces a Physics-encoded score neural network to learn priors and measurements.
result Demonstrates improved sample complexity and interpretability through domain knowledge incorporation.
Abstract: Geometrically reformulates estimation theory for finite-dimensional C*-algebras.
problem Estimation theory for finite-dimensional C*-algebras.
method Geometrical formulation of estimation theory.
result Derivation of Cramer-Rao and Helstrom bounds.
This paper studies the problem of inferring a global preference based on the partial rankings provided by many users over different subsets of items according to the Plackett-Luce model. A question of particular interest is how to optimally assign items to users for ranking and how many item assignments are needed to a…
In this paper, we derive Hybrid, Bayesian and Marginalized Cramér-Rao lower bounds (HCRB, BCRB and MCRB) for the single and multiple measurement vector Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) problem of estimating compressible vectors and their prior distribution parameters. We assume the unknown vector to be drawn from a compr…
The paper derives Cramer-Rao bounds for Laplacian matrix estimation under various constraints.
problem Estimating Laplacian matrices with structural constraints and sparsity.
method Linear reparametrization and closed-form expressions for Cramer-Rao bounds tailored to Laplacian matrix estimation.
result The derived CRBs provide performance limits for Laplacian matrix estimation and are validated in various applications.
Paper introduces geometry-aware normalizing flows for improved causal inference.
problem Disparity between sample and population distributions in causal inference.
method Integrates continuous normalizing flows with parametric submodels, employing Wasserstein gradient flows and optimal transport.
result Significantly reduces parameter estimation bias and variance in finite-sample settings.
This paper considers the quantification of the prediction performance in Gaussian process regression. The standard approach is to base the prediction error bars on the theoretical predictive variance, which is a lower bound on the mean square-error (MSE). This approach, however, does not take into account that the stat…
Develops an inverse particle filter for cognitive systems.
problem Tracking cognitive adversaries in counter-adversarial applications.
method Global filtering approach using Monte Carlo methods and differentiable I-PF.
result Demonstrates convergence to optimal inverse filter and improved estimation performance.
Paper develops a new estimator for MDPs' risk functionals with lower variance and bias.
problem Estimating the distribution of returns in MDPs with high variance and bias.
method Developed a doubly robust (DR) estimator for the CDF of returns in MDPs, incorporating model-based estimation to mitigate variance issues.
result The DR estimator achieves lower variance and bias compared to IS estimators, and matches minimax lower bounds.
New CRB derived for curved models using extrinsic geometry.
problem Estimate curved statistical families accurately.
method Vector generalization of CRB with curvature correction using SDP and SOS relaxations.
result Directional curvature correction provides more accurate estimation.
The paper sets bounds on how much regret is unavoidable in adaptive LQR with unknown B-matrix.
problem Understanding the limits of adaptive LQR with unknown B-matrix.
method Local asymptotic minimax regret lower bounds using van Trees' inequality and Bellman error representation.
result Logarithmic regret is impossible if the parametrization induces an uninformative optimal policy.
Recently, an extension of independent component analysis (ICA) from one to multiple datasets, termed independent vector analysis (IVA), has been the subject of significant research interest. IVA has also been shown to be a generalization of Hotelling's canonical correlation analysis. In this paper, we provide the ident…
The Fisher-Rao geometry is applied to elliptical distributions for optimization and classification.
problem Optimizing and classifying covariance matrices using geometric tools.
method Riemannian optimization and intrinsic Cramér-Rao bounds.
result Geometric tools enhance covariance matrix estimation and classification.
We show that on-policy policy gradient (PG) and its variance reduction variants can be derived by taking finite difference of function evaluations supplied by estimators from the importance sampling (IS) family for off-policy evaluation (OPE). Starting from the doubly robust (DR) estimator (Jiang & Li, 2016), we provid…
Purpose: Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) is a quantitative, non-invasive alternative to perfusion imaging with contrast agents. Fixing values of certain model parameters in traditional ASL, which actually vary from region to region, may introduce bias in perfusion estimates. Adopting Magnetic Resonance Fingerprinting (MRF…
In this paper we consider the use of the space vs. time Kronecker product decomposition in the estimation of covariance matrices for spatio-temporal data. This decomposition imposes lower dimensional structure on the estimated covariance matrix, thus reducing the number of samples required for estimation. To allow a sm…
This paper solves the intractability barrier in non-parametric information geometry by introducing a novel framework.
problem The intractability barrier in non-parametric information geometry due to the Fisher-Rao metric being a functional.
method Introducing an Orthogonal Decomposition of the Tangent Space and deriving the Covariate Fisher Information Matrix (cFIM).
result Established a rigorous foundation for the G-entropy and provided fundamental limits of variance for semi-parametric estimators.
The paper explores optimal algorithms for linear regression under covariate shift, proving the optimality of certain transformations and SGD variants.
problem Optimal algorithms for linear regression under covariate shift with ellipse-shaped constraints.
method Establishes a tight lower generalization bound via Bayesian Cramer-Rao inequality, proves the optimality of certain transformations, and analyzes SGD variants.
result Optimal estimators and SGD variants achieve optimality under specific conditions.
We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model parameters. We apply this novel methodology to five population growth models, including models …
Geometric approach to thermodynamics of chemical reaction networks.
problem Thermodynamics of chemical reaction networks with non-ideal behavior.
method Information geometry, Riemannian geometry, Cramer-Rao bound, absolute sensitivity.
result Absolute sensitivity is a projection operator onto the tangent bundle of the equilibrium manifold.
Quantum-enhanced metrology aims to estimate an unknown parameter such that the precision scales better than the shot-noise bound. Single-shot adaptive quantum-enhanced metrology (AQEM) is a promising approach that uses feedback to tweak the quantum process according to previous measurement outcomes. Techniques and form…
Unified geometric interpretation of statistical estimation inequalities.
problem Curvature corrections in parametric statistical estimation.
method Cartan-geometric jet bundle formulation and jet prolongations.
result Unified geometric interpretation of higher-order information inequalities.
Improved location estimation for high-dimensional data with finite sample size.
problem Estimating the shift in high-dimensional data with limited samples.
method Smoothed estimators and bounds on subgamma vectors.
result Convergence to Cramér-Rao bound for finite sample sizes.
Study on collaboration vs. independent data collection in sensor networks.
problem Impact of sensor correlation on data collection strategies.
method Analysis of Fisher information and Cramer-Rao bound.
result Optimal strategy involves transferring non-immediate information for improved estimation.
Proofs Fisher-Rao distance on Gaussian covariance manifold.
problem Proving Fisher-Rao distance on Gaussian covariance manifold.
method Basic Riemannian geometry.
result Proof of Fisher-Rao distance on covariance cone.
The paper explores how information geometry impacts classical CR inequalities.
problem Deriving and generalizing CR inequalities using information geometry.
method Examining Eguchi's theory and applying Amari-Nagoaka's theory to KL-divergence, and then extending to other divergences.
result Generalized CR inequalities derived from various divergences.