A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study predicts U.S. county COVID-19 growth using demographic and social distancing data.
TLRF improves timely COVID-19 outbreak detection with small sample size counties.
Study evaluates how changes in mobility affect COVID-19 case rates.
Improved county-level COVID-19 forecasting model using LSTM and data augmentation.
P.W. Anderson proposed the concept of complexity in order to describe the emergence and growth of macroscopic collective patterns out of the simple interactions of many microscopic agents. In the physical sciences this paradigm was implemented systematically and confirmed repeatedly by successful confrontation with rea…
We provide an analytically treatable model that describes in a unified manner income distribution for all income categories. The approach is based on a master equation with growth and reset terms. The model assumptions on the growth and reset rates are tested on an exhaustive database with incomes on individual level s…
Paper analyzes factors affecting COVID-19 risk in US counties.
We analyze the cumulative distribution of total personal income of USA counties, and gross domestic product of Brazilian, German and United Kingdom counties, and also of world countries. We verify that generalized exponential distributions, related to nonextensive statistical mechanics, describe almost the whole spectr…
Satellite images predict U.S. county mortality rates.
Corn yield prediction is beneficial as it provides valuable information about production and prices prior the harvest. Publicly available high-quality corn yield prediction can help address emergent information asymmetry problems and in doing so improve price efficiency in futures markets. This paper is the first to em…
Model predicts US COVID-19 deaths with quantile estimates.
Satellite imagery improves house price prediction models.
A new machine learning model forecasts COVID-19 incidence at county level in the USA.
Anomaly detection for high-dimensional data using large deviations principle.
Count data, for example the number of observed cases of a disease in a city, often arise in the fields of healthcare analytics and epidemiology. In this paper, we consider performing regression on multivariate data in which our outcome is a count. Specifically, we derive log-likelihood functions for finite mixtures of …
Research explores how local communities and corporations interact in finance.
The study revises GDPpc trends and redistributes economic power among countries.
Machine learning predicts mask mandates reduce COVID-19 deaths.
Religious adherence reduces corporate greenwashing behavior.
Cricket betting is a multi-billion dollar market. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for models that can predict the outcomes of games and beat the odds provided by bookers. The aim of this study was to investigate to what degree it is possible to predict the outcome of cricket matches. The target competition was t…
Crop yield forecasting is the methodology of predicting crop yields prior to harvest. The availability of accurate yield prediction frameworks have enormous implications from multiple standpoints, including impact on the crop commodity futures markets, formulation of agricultural policy, as well as crop insurance ratin…
Model predicts COVID-19 progression with interpretability.
Study examines equity in post-Snow Uri recovery, finds disparities.
condLSTM-Q predicts COVID-19 deaths at county level with quantile forecasts.
The aim of this paper is to get an overview of the online buyer profile, and also some key aspects in the way the online shopping is conducted. In this project we conducted a quantitative research, consisting of a questionnaire based survey. For data processing and interpretation we used SPSS statistical software and E…
Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the link between the rate of labor participation and real GDP per capita. New result…
We describe two recently proposed machine learning approaches for discovering emerging trends in fatal accidental drug overdoses. The Gaussian Process Subset Scan enables early detection of emerging patterns in spatio-temporal data, accounting for both the non-iid nature of the data and the fact that detecting subtle p…
Graph clustering is a basic technique in machine learning, and has widespread applications in different domains. While spectral techniques have been successfully applied for clustering undirected graphs, the performance of spectral clustering algorithms for directed graphs (digraphs) is not in general satisfactory: the…
Study improves flood loss risk models using historical data and rainfall data.
Paper presents a spatio-temporal Bayesian model for early detection of COVID-19 hotspots.
Study finds non-adherence to schizophrenia meds leads to earlier adverse events.
We address the problem of defining a network graph on a large collection of classes. Each class is comprised of a collection of data points, sampled in a non i.i.d. way, from some unknown underlying distribution. The application we consider in this paper is a large scale high dimensional survey of people living in the …
Study examines stock price reactions to Texas winter storm power outages.
Study identifies and measures biases in legal case data.
We present the design and implementation of a custom discrete optimization technique for building rule lists over a categorical feature space. Our algorithm produces rule lists with optimal training performance, according to the regularized empirical risk, with a certificate of optimality. By leveraging algorithmic bou…
Historical economic growth in countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malt…
The Unified Growth Theory is a puzzling collection of myths based on illusions created by hyperbolic distributions. Some of these myths are discussed. The examination of data shows that the three stages of growth (Malthusian Regime, Post-Malthusian Regime and Modern Growth Regime) did not exist and that Industrial Revo…
Historical economic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used (but not analysed) during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malthusian…
Study confined subgroups in groups with contracting elements, showing their growth rate is strictly greater than half of the ambient growth rate.
Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between 1960 and 2014 was following a trajectory approaching asymptotically a constant val…
Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and by the world economic growth. Paradoxically, U…
Growth rates of geodesics on modular orbifolds are studied.
Nowadays autonomous technologies are a very heavily explored area and particularly computer vision as the main component of vehicle perception. The quality of the whole vision system based on neural networks relies on the dataset it was trained on. It is extremely difficult to find traffic sign datasets from most of th…
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search …
The study provides volume growth estimates for specific types of manifolds.
Study growth rates of subgroups in groups with a constricting element.
We present a quantitative characterisation of the fluctuations of the annualized growth rate of the real US GDP per capita growth at many scales, using a wavelet transform analysis of two data sets, quarterly data from 1947 to 2015 and annual data from 1800 to 2010. Our main finding is that the distribution of GDP grow…
Paper reviews and proves volume growth estimates for different types of gradient Ricci solitons.