arXiv research

Study quantifies firm risks from nature decline, showing significant equity losses.

Study examines how pandemic anxiety affects financial market trust.

In this paper the correlation between education, research and macroeconomic strength of countries at a global scale is analyzed on the basis of statistical data published by the UNIDO and OECD. It uses sets of composite indicators describing the economical performance and competitiveness as well as those relevant for h…

Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent 'economic complexity' research suggests. A country's product diversity reflects its diversity of knowhow or 'capabilities'. Researchers propo…

Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant $λ= 0.12$. We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global …

Geoeconomic analysis of venture capital portfolios reveals key emerging tech domains and countries.

Innovation is among the key factors driving a country's economic and social growth. But what are the factors that make a country innovative? How do they differ across different parts of the world and different stages of development? In this work done in collaboration with the World Economic Forum (WEF), we analyze the …

We present a method of rank-optimal weighting which can be used to explore the best possible position of a subject in a ranking based on a composite indicator by means of a mathematical optimization problem. As an example, we explore the dataset of the OECD Better Life Index and compute for each country a weight vector…

In order to investigate whether government regulations against corruption can affect the economic growth of a country, we analyze the dependence between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rates and changes in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). For the period 1999-2004 on average for all countries in th…

Recent work has shown that a country's productive structure constrains its level of economic growth and income inequality. Here, we compare the productive structure of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) with that of China and other High-Performing Asian Economies (HPAE) to expose the increasing gap in t…

In 2018, at the World Economic Forum in Davos it was presented a new countries' economic performance metric named the Inclusive Development Index (IDI) composed of 12 indicators. The new metric implies that countries might need to realize structural reforms for improving both economic expansion and social inclusion per…

Paper examines global Covid-19 data complexity and finds low intrinsic dimensions.

Study links public concern in Italy to financial markets worldwide.

The paper explores features from orderbooks to improve intraday electricity price forecasting.

In this paper, we study the inequality indices for some models of wealth exchange. We calculated Gini index and newly introduced k-index and compare the results with reported empirical data available for different countries. We have found lower and upper bounds for the indices and discuss the efficiencies of the models…

This paper surveys the evolution of industrial concentration of the Brazilian automotive market as well as its positioning in the worldmarket. Data available by OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers) were used to better understand the characteristics of the Brazilian market on the world stage.…

Paper classifies economic states and optimizes portfolios for stagflationary environments.

A society or country with income equally distributed among its people is truly a fiction! The phenomena of socioeconomic inequalities have been plaguing mankind from times immemorial. We are interested in gaining an insight about the co-evolution of the countries in the inequality space, from a data science perspective…

We investigate statistical properties of daily international market indices of seven countries, and high-frequency $S&P500$ and KOSDAQ data, by using the detrended fluctuation method and the surrogate test. We have found that the returns of international stock market indices of seven countries follow a universal power-…

We demonstrate using multi-layered networks, the existence of an empirical linkage between the dynamics of the financial network constructed from the market indices and the macroeconomic networks constructed from macroeconomic variables such as trade, foreign direct investments, etc. for several countries across the gl…

The study aims to explore the strength of causal relationship between stock price search interest and real stock market outcomes on worldwide equity market indices. Such a phenomenon could also be mediated by investor behavior and extent of news coverage. The stock-specific internet search trends data and corresponding…

A non-parametric method for ranking stock indices according to their mutual causal influences is presented. Under the assumption that indices reflect the underlying economy of a country, such a ranking indicates which countries exert the most economic influence in an examined subset of the global economy. The proposed …

Predicts local AQI using mobile sensor data, improving accuracy by 71.654 MSE.

This paper considers an often forgotten relationship, the time delay between a cause and its effect in economies and finance. We treat the case of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth, - measured through a country Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The pertinent data refers to 43 countries, over 1970-2015, - …

Study shows death ratio of COVID-19 deaths increases financial volatility.

GDP of China is about 11 trillion dollars and GDP of the United States is about 18 trillion dollars. Suppose that we know for the coming years, economy of the US will experience a real growth rate equal to \%3 and economy of China will experience a real growth as of \%6. Now, the question is how long does it take for e…

Study shows sudden loss of balance in stock market networks after 2011, reducing predictability.

In industrial applications, nearly half the failures of motors are caused by the degradation of rolling element bearings (REBs). Therefore, accurately estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) for REBs are of crucial importance to ensure the reliability and safety of mechanical systems. To tackle this challenge, model…

New model predicts financial market abnormalities using stock index uncertainties.

Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under the generalised linear modelling framework. In this paper we approach the proble…

Training a neural network for a classification task typically assumes that the data to train are given from the beginning. However, in the real world, additional data accumulate gradually and the model requires additional training without accessing the old training data. This usually leads to the catastrophic forgettin…

NDI aims to forecast future natural disasters risk for insurers.

The steel industry has great impacts on the economy and the environment of both developed and underdeveloped countries. The importance of this industry and these impacts have led many researchers to investigate the relationship between a country's steel consumption and its economic activity resulting in the so-called i…

In this paper, we model the impact of oil price volatility on Tehranstock and industry indices in two periods of international sanctions and post-sanction. To analyse the purpose of study, we use Feed-forward neural net-works. The period of study is from 2008 to 2018 that is split in two periods during international en…

The easy access to large data sets has allowed for leveraging methodology in network physics and complexity science to disentangle patterns and processes directly from the data, leading to key insights in the behavior of systems. Here we use to country specific food production data to study binary and weighted topologi…

Countries tend to diversify their exports by entering products that are related to their current exports. Yet this average behavior is not representative of every diversification path. In this paper, we introduce a method to identify periods when countries enter unrelated products. We analyze the economic diversificati…

Study creates a global living index to assess quality of life.

Myanmar is languishing at the bottom of key international indexes. United Nations considers the country as a structurally weak and vulnerable economy. Yet, from 2011 when Myanmar ended decades of military rule and isolationism and transited towards democracy, its breakneck development has led to many considering the co…

Using data from a sample of 28 representatives countries, we propose a classification of currency crises consequences based on the ultrametric analysis of the real exchange rate movements time series, without any further assumption. By using the matrix of synchronous linear correlation coefficients and the appropriate …

Recently, there has been a growing interest in network research, especially in these fields of biology, computer science, and sociology. It is natural to address complex financial issues such as the European sovereign debt crisis from the perspective of network. In this article, we construct a network model according t…

We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the dire…

Inside the EU, the commercial integration of the CEE countries has gained remarkable momentum before the crisis appearance, but it has slightly slowed down afterwards. Consequently, the interest in identifying the factors supporting the commercial integration process is high. Recent findings in the new trade theory sug…

Various works have already showed that common shocks and cross-country financial linkages caused the banking systems of several countries to be highly interconnected with the result that during bad times, banking crises may arise simultaneously in different countries. Our aim is to provide further evidence on the topic…

We consider the sectoral composition of a country's GDP, i.e. the partitioning into agrarian, industrial, and service sectors. Exploring a simple system of differential equations we characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the sectors in the course of economic development. The model fits for the majority of coun…

Prediction is one of the major challenges in complex systems. The prediction methods have shown to be effective predictors of the evolution of networks. These methods can help policy makers to solve practical problems successfully and make better strategy for the future. In this work, we focus on exporting countries' d…

We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade imbalances of the European countries. These measures are the network (or indire…

By monitoring the time evolution of the most liquid Futures contracts traded globally as acquired using the Bloomberg API from 03 January 2000 until 15 December 2014 we were able to forecast the S&P 500 index beating the Buy and Hold trading strategy. Our approach is based on convolution computations of 42 of the most …

Investigates how FDI and R&D affect host countries' growth.