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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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48 results for Counterfactual SCMs

Paper simplifies complex causal identifiability problems with exogenous isomorphism.

problem Achieving consistent answers to causal questions in Structural Causal Models.
method Introducing exogenous isomorphism and proposing EI\sim_{\mathrm{EI}}-identifiability.
result Unified and generalized theories for practical applications in counterfactual reasoning.

New method warns of counterfactual non-identifiability in DSCMs.

problem Counterfactual inference from observational data is non-identifiable even without unobserved confounding.
method Prove counterfactual identifiability for monotonic generation mechanisms, provide impossibility result for general mechanisms, propose method for estimating worst-case errors.
result Non-identifiability of counterfactual inference from observational data, even in absence of unobserved confounding.

Proposes Exogenous Matching for efficient counterfactual estimation.

problem Efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings.
method Transforms variance minimization into conditional distribution learning.
result Outperforms other importance sampling methods in counterfactual estimation.

A new framework for robust and coherent counterfactual transports.

problem Estimating joint distributions over counterfactual outcomes in personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment.
method Counterfactual cocycles that use algebraic structure to provide coherence and identifiability guarantees, bridging the gap between bijective SCMs and OT methods.
result Counterfactual cocycles provide state-of-the-art performance and noise-robustness across synthetic benchmarks and a real-world study.

VACA models graph data for causal inference without hidden confounders.

problem Causal inference in observational data with hidden confounders.
method Variational graph autoencoders for structural causal models.
result Accurately approximates interventional and counterfactual distributions.

Proposes a new method for estimating counterfactual treatment effects.

problem Uncertainty in identifying causal mechanisms from observational data.
method Introduces a parameterized family of causal mechanisms that generalize Gumbel-max, trained to minimize counterfactual effect variance.
result Trained mechanisms yield lower variance estimates of counterfactual treatment effects.

New method tightens bounds on causation probabilities using independent datasets.

problem Challenging point identification of causation probabilities without strong assumptions.
method Imposes counterfactual consistency between SCMs constructed from independent datasets and uses conditional mutual information.
result Significantly tighter bounds on causation probabilities are established.

Two environments are enough to infer causal graphs and counterfactuals.

problem Inferring causal relations from multiple environments, especially for nonlinear mechanisms.
method Using structural causal models and the invariance principle, the study shows that only two auxiliary environments are sufficient for causal graph inference and counterfactual inference.
result Two auxiliary environments are sufficient for identifying causal graphs and counterfactuals.

Paper proposes a method to estimate counterfactual outcomes without a known SCM.

problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes without a known structural causal model.
method Introduces rank preservation assumption and a novel ideal loss for unbiased learning of counterfactual outcomes.
result The proposed method is effective and unbiased, as shown by theoretical analysis and experiments.

New RL method learns policies from few data using causal models.

problem Limited interaction data and heterogeneous patient responses.
method Exploits structural causal models to model state dynamics and counterfactual reasoning.
result Counterfactual RL algorithms converge to optimal value function.

The study quantifies the information needed for causal queries at different levels of Pearl's hierarchy.

problem How much additional information is needed for interventional and counterfactual queries compared to observational queries?
method Formalized via query-class description length, using Kolmogorov complexity of answer oracles induced by SCMs.
result Binary acyclic SCMs show a quadratic gap between observational and interventional descriptions, and a logarithmic gap between interventional and counterfactual descriptions.

Develops c-GNF for personalized social science policy analysis.

problem Challenges in estimating causal effects and counterfactual inference in social sciences.
method causal-Graphical Normalizing Flow (c-GNF) method.
result c-GNF performs well in estimating causal effects and counterfactual inference.

TRAM-DAG models bridge interpretability and flexibility in causal modeling.

problem Modeling causal relationships in diverse data types while maintaining interpretability.
method Using transformation models (TRAMs) within structural causal models (SCMs) to handle various data types and maintain interpretability.
result TRAM-DAG models achieve equal or superior performance in causal queries across different levels of the causal hierarchy.

New model predicts drug effects across various cell types using causal imputation.

problem Predict drug effects across different cell types given limited data.
method Introduces a novel SCM-based model class with latent factor structure and uses Synthetic Interventions estimator.
result Method outperforms other matrix completion approaches in drug repurposing dataset.

Survey on combining causal models with deep generative models for improved explainability and fairness.

problem Deep generative models lack explainability, induce spurious correlations, and poor out-of-distribution extrapolation.
method Structural causal models (SCMs) combined with deep generative models to address shortcomings.
result Causal generative models offer robustness, fairness, and interpretability.

The paper tackles counterfactual inference with multioutput deep kernels in high-dimensional settings.

problem Performing counterfactual inference with observational data in high-dimensional settings with multiple actions and outcomes.
method The paper presents a general class of counterfactual multi-task deep kernels models based on Structural Causal Models (SCM) and Gaussian Processes.
result The models estimate causal effects and learn policies efficiently, scaling well with high dimensions.

New method distinguishes cause from effect using causal velocity.

problem Inferring causal direction from bivariate data.
method Parametrization of bivariate SCMs in terms of causal velocity, using tools from measure transport.
result Method extends beyond known model classes and requires no assumptions on noise distributions.

New algorithm makes machine learning fairer by removing bias from data.

problem Reduces bias in machine learning models through orthogonal data transformation.
method Orthogonal to Bias (OB) algorithm based on structural causal models.
result Promotes counterfactual fairness without sacrificing model accuracy.

Estimates causal effects in Gaussian Linear SCMs with finite data.

problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with latent confounders.
method Centralized Gaussian Linear SCMs (CGL-SCMs) and EM-based estimation algorithm.
result Learned CGL-SCM parameters accurately recover causal distributions from finite observational samples.

Although deep learning models have been successfully applied to a variety of tasks, due to the millions of parameters, they are becoming increasingly opaque and complex. In order to establish trust for their widespread commercial use, it is important to formalize a principled framework to reason over these models. In t…

2018-11-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proves linear convergence of SCMS algorithm for directional data.

problem Identifying density ridges in directional data.
method Generalized SCMS algorithm to directional data, derived from SCGA with adaptive step size.
result Linear convergence of the proposed directional SCMS algorithm.

Expands experimental design for causal discovery from limited data.

problem Challenges in causal discovery from observational and interventional data.
method Bayesian optimal experimental design incorporating recent advances in causal discovery.
result Active causal discovery of large, nonlinear SCMs with both intervention target and value selection.

Improved covariance matrix estimation for multiple classes with limited data.

problem Estimating covariance matrices for multiple classes with scarce data.
method Coupled regularized sample covariance matrix estimator (RSCM) that combines pooled SCM and scaled identity matrix for regularization.
result The coupled RSCM estimators outperform cross-validation in classification tasks with comparable accuracy but faster computation.

COTA learns abstraction maps from data without complete SCM knowledge.

problem Learning causally consistent representations at different resolutions.
method Multi-marginal Optimal Transport (OT) with do-calculus constraints and interventional cost.
result COTA outperforms non-causal and independent formulations on synthetic and real-world problems.

Structural Causal Models (SCMs) provide a popular causal modeling framework. In this work, we show that SCMs are not flexible enough to give a complete causal representation of dynamical systems at equilibrium. Instead, we propose a generalization of the notion of an SCM, that we call Causal Constraints Model (CCM), an…

2018-05-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Dynamical systems are widely used in science and engineering to model systems consisting of several interacting components. Often, they can be given a causal interpretation in the sense that they not only model the evolution of the states of the system's components over time, but also describe how their evolution is af…

2018-03-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a new method for covariance estimation using M-estimators with eigenvalue shrinkage.

problem Estimating covariance matrices in heavy-tailed distributions.
method Replaces shrinkage sample covariance matrix with M-estimator of scatter matrix and optimizes shrinkage parameter.
result Shrinkage M-estimators outperform shrinkage SCM in heavy-tailed distributions.

The paper tackles causal bandits with unknown SCMs and soft interventions, providing upper and lower bounds on regret.

problem Optimizing interventions in a causal system with unknown SCMs and soft interventions.
method Assumes unknown SCMs from a general class, allows infinite interventions, and provides upper and lower bounds on regret.
result General upper and lower bounds on cumulative achievable regret for various SCMs.

This paper introduces a new method to deceive causal structure learning by omitting data.

problem Deceiving causal structure learning algorithms with incompletely observed data.
method Adversarial missingness attack to bias the learned causal structures.
result Theoretical and practical attack mechanisms are developed for various SCMs.

Novel approach to compute hazard ratios from observational studies using SCMs and backdoor adjustment.

problem Identifying causal relationships from observational data using hazard ratios.
method Backdoor adjustment through structural causal models (SCMs) and do-calculus.
result Novel approach for computing hazard ratios from observational studies.