Optimal trading strategy with predictor and costs, derived equations and shape.
problem Optimal trading strategy in presence of price predictor, costs, and risk control.
method Path-integral method to derive equations for band edges, solved explicitly for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck predictor.
result Explicit equations and shape of the optimal band strategy derived and analyzed.
AM-PPI uses multiple predictors to reduce label cost in healthcare AI.
problem Reduces label cost in post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI.
method Combines model predictions with a small labeled sample, routing each instance to a cost-appropriate subset of predictors.
result Produces narrower confidence intervals than single-predictor methods.
Empirically, the PAC-Bayesian analysis is known to produce tight risk bounds for practical machine learning algorithms. However, in its naive form, it can only deal with stochastic predictors while such predictors are rarely used and deterministic predictors often performs well in practice. To fill this gap, we develop…
New method minimizes regret in AMDP with high probability.
problem Pessimistic regret analysis in AMDP.
method Developed a new policy search method achieving optimistic regret.
result Achieved sublinear optimistic regret with high probability.
Optimal multi-asset trading with Markovian predictors is well understood in the case of quadratic transaction costs, but remains intractable when these costs are L1. We present a mean-field approach that reduces the multi-asset problem to a single-asset problem, with an effective predictor that includes a risk avers…
Training classification models on imbalanced data tends to result in bias towards the majority class. In this paper, we demonstrate how variable discretization and cost-sensitive logistic regression help mitigate this bias on an imbalanced credit scoring dataset, and further show the application of the variable discret…
WeakNAS uses a set of weaker predictors to find top architectures with fewer samples.
problem Finding the best neural architecture with heavy computation costs.
method Proposes a paradigm shift from fitting the whole architecture space to progressively fitting a search path through a set of weaker predictors.
result WeakNAS produces coarse-to-fine iteration to gradually refine the ranking of sampling space, requiring fewer samples to find top-performance architectures.
Study evaluates 31 performance predictors in NAS, recommending best for different settings.
problem Understanding and comparing different performance prediction techniques in NAS.
method Analysis of 31 techniques, testing correlation and rank-based measures, speed-up potential.
result Certain predictor families can be combined for better predictive power.
Reducing ICD-10 code granularity improves cost model accuracy and stability.
problem High-dimensional regression with ICD-10 codes leads to unstable coefficient estimates.
method Log-linear analytics approach to cost model regularization through diagnostic code merging.
result Reducing ICD-10 code granularity from 7 characters to 6 or fewer improves model interpretability and consistency.
We consider the problem of the optimal trading strategy in the presence of linear costs, and with a strict cap on the allowed position in the market. Using Bellman's backward recursion method, we show that the optimal strategy is to switch between the maximum allowed long position and the maximum allowed short position…
SemiNAS reduces NAS cost by predicting accuracy of unlabeled architectures.
problem Costly evaluation of architectures limits NAS efficiency.
method SemiNAS uses unlabeled architectures to train an accuracy predictor.
result SemiNAS achieves comparable accuracy with less data.
Derives bounds for deterministic predictors using smooth loss functions.
problem Generalizing probabilistic predictors to deterministic ones.
method Exploits smoothness properties of loss and predictor classes, controlling the Jensen gap class through Rademacher complexity.
result Derives bounds for deterministic predictors involving flatness quantities from Jacobians and Hessians.
Study shows competition feedback can make ML predictors biased towards specific user groups.
problem How competition affects machine learning predictors and user prediction quality.
method Flexible model of competing ML predictors, empirical and mathematical analysis.
result Competition causes predictors to specialize for specific sub-populations at the cost of general performance.
We introduce a new approach to variable selection, called Predictive Correlation Screening, for predictor design. Predictive Correlation Screening (PCS) implements false positive control on the selected variables, is well suited to small sample sizes, and is scalable to high dimensions. We establish asymptotic bounds f…
Derandomizing PAC-Bayes bounds for smooth loss functions
problem Derandomizing PAC-Bayes bounds for smooth loss functions
method Exploiting smoothness properties of both the loss and the predictor class
result Bounds for deterministic predictors that involve flatness quantities
We study the problem of optimal trading using general alpha predictors with linear costs and temporary impact. We do this within the framework of stochastic optimization with finite horizon using both limit and market orders. Consistently with other studies, we find that the presence of linear costs induces a no-tradin…
NPENAS improves neural architecture search efficiency and accuracy.
problem Efficient and accurate neural architecture search (NAS) for minimizing search costs.
method Proposes NPENAS, a neural predictor guided evolutionary algorithm that enhances exploration ability of evolutionary algorithms.
result NPENAS-BO and NPENAS-NP outperform existing NAS algorithms on NASBench-201, NASBench-101, and DARTS.
New framework improves adversarial robustness in one-stage L2D.
problem Adversarial robustness in one-stage Learning-to-Defer (L2D).
method Formalizes attacks, proposes cost-sensitive adversarial surrogate losses, establishes theoretical guarantees.
result Improves robustness against untargeted and targeted attacks while preserving clean performance.
A new IL framework estimates invariant predictors with single domain data.
problem Deep networks inherit spurious correlations and fail on unseen domains.
method Assumes multiple labeled domains for higher-level tasks, uses single domain for target task, employs cross-validation for hyperparameter selection.
result Empirically demonstrates effectiveness and correctness of hyperparameter selection.
Modified Perceptron handles strategic agents with limited position changes.
problem Learning linear classifiers in the presence of strategic agents that can manipulate their positions.
method Developed a modified Perceptron algorithm with bounded mistakes under various manipulation costs.
result The modified Perceptron achieves bounded mistakes even when manipulation costs are unknown.
New algorithms for multi-class classification with abstention.
problem Learning with abstention in multi-class classification.
method Introducing new surrogate losses and analyzing predictor-rejector framework.
result Strong consistency guarantees for abstention loss function.
APQ jointly optimizes neural architecture, pruning, and quantization for efficient inference.
problem Efficient deep learning inference on resource-constrained hardware.
method Joint optimization of neural architecture, pruning, and quantization policy using a quantization-aware accuracy predictor.
result Joint optimization leads to 2.3% higher ImageNet accuracy with reduced latency and energy consumption.
This paper proposes a general adaptive procedure for budget-limited predictor design in high dimensions called two-stage Sampling, Prediction and Adaptive Regression via Correlation Screening (SPARCS). SPARCS can be applied to high dimensional prediction problems in experimental science, medicine, finance, and engineer…
Efficiently selects predictors in sparse regression without approximations.
problem High computational cost in subset selection for sparse regression.
method Conditional uncorrelation formula and efficient non-approximate method.
result Significant reduction in computational complexity for subset selection.
Proposes a new method for decision-aware learning in optimization.
problem Contextual linear optimization with cost prediction errors.
method Reweighing prediction error by decision regret for decision-aware predictor.
result Improves over predict-then-optimize framework for misspecified models.
New method learns to encode predictions within interpretations, improving evaluation.
problem Need for interpretable machine learning, but existing methods are slow or lack fidelity.
method Amortized explanation methods that learn a global selector model optimizing fidelity of interpretations.
result Predictions can be encoded within interpretations, detected by EVAL-X.
New method reduces training cost by using approximate gradients.
problem Training neural networks is computationally expensive.
method Uses control variates to approximate gradients without full backward pass.
result Efficacy demonstrated on a vision transformer classification task.
Paper proposes consistent estimators for learning to defer decisions to experts.
problem Learning algorithms often ignore expert decision-making in practical scenarios.
method Reduction to cost sensitive learning, novel surrogate loss for consistent estimation.
result Effective approach demonstrated on various tasks, showing consistency.
Using an artificial neural network (ANN), a fixed universe of approximately 1500 equities from the Value Line index are rank-ordered by their predicted price changes over the next quarter. Inputs to the network consist only of the ten prior quarterly percentage changes in price and in earnings for each equity (by quart…
New method converts LVAs into linear projections for better understanding of complex models.
problem Limited interpretability of nonlinear machine learning models.
method Animated linear projections and radial tours.
result Improved understanding of variable importance in complex models.
Artificial Neural Network predicts PM2.5 pollution with low-cost sensors.
problem Costly and bulky PM2.5 monitoring instruments limit real-time, high-resolution data.
method Analytical equations derived using Artificial Neural Network (ANN).
result RMSE of 1.7973 ug/m3 and R2 of 0.9986 for eight predictors; 7.5372 ug/m3 and 0.9708 for three predictors.
A framework for ranking with abstention, offering theoretical guarantees and practical effectiveness.
problem Making predictions with limited cost when uncertain.
method Introduces a novel ranking framework with abstention, analyzing theoretical consistency bounds.
result Extensive theoretical analysis including H-consistency bounds for linear and neural network models. Bayesian neural networks can be partially stochastic without losing predictive power.
problem The necessity of fully stochastic parameters in Bayesian neural networks.
method Theoretical and empirical investigation of partially stochastic networks compared to fully stochastic ones.
result Expressive predictive distributions require only small amounts of stochasticity, and partially stochastic networks can match or outperform fully stochastic networks.
We propose a generic confidence-based approximation that can be plugged in and simplify the auto-regressive generation process with a proved convergence. We first assume that the priors of future samples can be generated in an independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) manner using an efficient predictor. Given…
In many real-world learning scenarios, features are only acquirable at a cost constrained under a budget. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for cost-sensitive feature acquisition at the prediction-time. The suggested method acquires features incrementally based on a context-aware feature-value function. We for…
As algorithmic prediction systems have become widespread, fears that these systems may inadvertently discriminate against members of underrepresented populations have grown. With the goal of understanding fundamental principles that underpin the growing number of approaches to mitigating algorithmic discrimination, we …
A significant hurdle for analyzing large sample data is the lack of effective statistical computing and inference methods. An emerging powerful approach for analyzing large sample data is subsampling, by which one takes a random subsample from the original full sample and uses it as a surrogate for subsequent computati…
MELO predicts electricity loads by adapting to shifts without external indicators.
problem Adapting to non-stationary prediction challenges in online settings.
method MELO combines multiple forgetting factors and aggregation rules to adaptively predict.
result MELO reduces RMSE by 34.7% compared to base predictors and external covariates.
Deciding what and when to observe is critical when making observations is costly. In a medical setting where observations can be made sequentially, making these observations (or not) should be an active choice. We refer to this as the active sensing problem. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework, wh…
Optimal trading is a recent field of research which was initiated by Almgren, Chriss, Bertsimas and Lo in the late 90's. Its main application is slicing large trading orders, in the interest of minimizing trading costs and potential perturbations of price dynamics due to liquidity shocks. The initial optimization frame…
The problem of forecasting conditional probabilities of the next event given the past is considered in a general probabilistic setting. Given an arbitrary (large, uncountable) set C of predictors, we would like to construct a single predictor that performs asymptotically as well as the best predictor in C, on any data.…
A new screening method for high-dimensional data reduces computational cost.
problem Challenges in variable selection for ultrahigh-dimensional linear regression.
method Ordering absolute sample ridge partial correlations to screen variables.
result The method provides sure screening property without strong assumptions.
A hybrid Convolutional VAE predicts crypto volatility surfaces, outperforming single-symbol approaches.
problem Predicting crypto volatility surfaces
method Convolutional VAE with hybrid predictor
result Model achieves 0.94-1.56 vol-point RMSE across BTC and ETH markets
This study compares various superlearner and deep learning architectures (machine-learning-based and neural-network-based) for classification problems across several simulated and industrial datasets to assess performance and computational efficiency, as both methods have nice theoretical convergence properties. Superl…
FOLKLORE algorithm speeds up online multiclass logistic regression.
problem Efficiently solving online multiclass logistic regression without high computational cost.
method Developed FOLKLORE algorithm with improved runtime and regret bound.
result First practical algorithm for online multiclass logistic regression.
Improves transfer learning by weighting importance based on test-over-training density.
problem Distribution shift in training and test data.
method Joint and dynamic importance-predictor estimation, causal mechanism transfer.
result Enhanced transfer learning performance in complex, high-dimensional tasks.
This paper improves SGMs by using a predictor-corrector scheme to converge faster.
problem Theoretical and practical limitations of existing SGMs when T1o∞. method Integrates a predictor-corrector scheme after the forward process to converge in finite time.
result Convergence guarantees for SGMs require only a fixed finite time T1. New bounds explain deterministic non-smooth deep nets without large Lipschitz constants.
problem Challenges in explaining generalization of deterministic non-smooth deep nets.
method De-randomized PAC-Bayes margin bounds for deterministic non-convex and non-smooth predictors.
result New bounds avoid large Lipschitz constants, providing generalization guarantees.