A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Unified framework for nonconvex matrix completion with linearly parameterized factors.
Develops a method for stress testing correlations of financial portfolios.
New model analyzes dynamic correlations in stock returns.
We analyze ridge interpolators in correlated factor regression models using RDT.
New tensor-based method for estimating stock correlation matrices.
Proposes FarmHazard model for hazard regression with correlated covariates.
New inflation model captures correlations and skew in interest rates.
Develops a new framework for joint portfolio risk forecasting.
We are often interested in explaining data through a set of hidden factors or features. When the number of hidden features is unknown, the Indian Buffet Process (IBP) is a nonparametric latent feature model that does not bound the number of active features in dataset. However, the IBP assumes that all latent features a…
A new way to describe correlation matrices makes modeling easier.
We study the adaptive estimation of copula correlation matrix for the semi-parametric elliptical copula model. In this context, the correlations are connected to Kendall's tau through a sine function transformation. Hence, a natural estimate for is the plug-in estimator with Kendall's tau statistic. We …
This study tackles basis risk in weather parametric insurance using Monte Carlo simulations.
SPPCSO addresses multicollinearity in high-dimensional data, improving model stability and predictive accuracy.
Variational inference transforms posterior inference into parametric optimization thereby enabling the use of latent variable models where otherwise impractical. However, variational inference can be finicky when different variational parameters control variables that are strongly correlated under the model. Traditiona…
We propose a novel VAE-based deep auto-encoder model that can learn disentangled latent representations in a fully unsupervised manner, endowed with the ability to identify all meaningful sources of variation and their cardinality. Our model, dubbed Relevance-Factor-VAE, leverages the total correlation (TC) in the late…
New method disentangles correlated factors without independence assumption.
Bayesian model tackles spatial count data issues with flexible non-parametric techniques.
Most data is multi-dimensional. Discovering whether any subset of dimensions, or subspaces, of such data is significantly correlated is a core task in data mining. To do so, we require a measure that quantifies how correlated a subspace is. For practical use, such a measure should be universal in the sense that it capt…
Paper defines conditions for feasible correlation matrices from factor structures.
Study analyzes correlation structure in two-factor Hull-White model for XVA calculations.
It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time independent correlations. Using surrogate data with the true market return as the dominant…
Enhances feature augmentation for high-dimensional learning.
We find that the CAPM fails to explain the small firm effect even if its non-parametric form is used which allows time-varying risk and non-linearity in the pricing function. Furthermore, the linearity of the CAPM can be rejected, thus the widely used risk and performance measures, the beta and the alpha, are biased an…
New method detects intrinsic cross-correlations in non-stationary time series affected by common factors.
Variational language models seek to estimate the posterior of latent variables with an approximated variational posterior. The model often assumes the variational posterior to be factorized even when the true posterior is not. The learned variational posterior under this assumption does not capture the dependency relat…
Paper addresses the disparity between sampled and mean representations in disentangled learning.
SPACY discovers causal graphs from spatiotemporal data using variational inference.
In a very high-dimensional vector space, two randomly-chosen vectors are almost orthogonal with high probability. Starting from this observation, we develop a statistical factor model, the random factor model, in which factors are chosen at random based on the random projection method. Randomness of factors has the con…
In this paper, we propose a non-parametric conditional factor regression (NCFR)model for domains with high-dimensional input and response. NCFR enhances linear regression in two ways: a) introducing low-dimensional latent factors leading to dimensionality reduction and b) integrating an Indian Buffet Process as a prior…
Unified framework for generating data by modeling causal and correlational dependencies.
Improved calibration of HJM models using small volatility approximation.
In 2012, JPMorgan accumulated a USD~6.2 billion loss on a credit derivatives portfolio, the so-called `London Whale', partly as a consequence of de-correlations of non-perfectly correlated positions that were supposed to hedge each other. Motivated by this case, we devise a factor model for correlations that allows for…
The stock market has been known to form homogeneous stock groups with a higher correlation among different stocks according to common economic factors that influence individual stocks. We investigate the role of common economic factors in the market in the formation of stock networks, using the arbitrage pricing model …
Improved sample complexity for Gaussian Mixture Models using Pair Correlation Factor.
This paper describes a flexible and tractable bottom-up dynamic correlation modelling framework with a consistent stochastic recovery specification. The stochastic recovery specification only models the first two moments of the spot recovery rate as its higher moments have almost no contribution to the loss distributio…
LaCIM avoids spurious correlation by modeling latent causal factors.
GRU-PFG model extracts inter-stock correlations from stock factors using graph neural networks.
We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time lag cross-correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross-correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that …
Study reveals supply chain correlations in firm growth rates.
FASC clusters data with latent factors, improving on naive methods.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
We propose a Bayesian non-parametric approach for modeling the distribution of multiple returns. In particular, we use an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to estimate the time-varying correlations of financial returns where the individual volatilities are driven by GJR-GARCH models. The ADCC-GJR-…
Naive Bayes estimator is widely used in text classification problems. However, it doesn't perform well with small-size training dataset. We propose a new method based on Naive Bayes estimator to solve this problem. A correlation factor is introduced to incorporate the correlation among different classes. Experimental r…
We uncover a new anomaly in asset pricing that is linked to the remuneration: the more a company spends on salaries and benefits per employee, the better its stock performs, on average. Moreover, the companies adopting similar remuneration policies share a common risk, which is comparable to that of the value premium. …
FACTM combines FA with correlated topic modeling for structured data integration.
BN^2MF identifies unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.
In this paper, we measure systematic risk with a new nonparametric factor model, the neural network factor model. The suitable factors for systematic risk can be naturally found by inserting daily returns on a wide range of assets into the bottleneck network. The network-based model does not stick to a probabilistic st…
Through simple analytical calculations and numerical simulations, we demonstrate the generic existence of a self-organized macroscopic state in any large multivariate system possessing non-vanishing average correlations between a finite fraction of all pairs of elements. The coexistence of an eigenvalue spectrum predic…