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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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4387130173 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for Contrasting Rules

The paper classifies ruled surfaces in a specific space that move in a special way.

problem Understanding how surfaces move in a special space.
method Classifying ruled surfaces as translating solitons of inverse mean curvature flow.
result Existence of non-cylindrical ruled translating solitons.

Cannon, Floyd and Parry have studied the modulus of finite subdivision rules extensively. We investigate the properties of the modulus of subdivision rules with linear and exponential growth at every vertex, using barycentric subdivision and a subdivision rule for the Borromean rings as examples. We show that the subdi…

2011-09-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper refines InfoNCE for accurate mutual information estimation.

problem Indirect connection of InfoNCE to mutual information estimation.
method Introduces InfoNCE-anchor with an auxiliary anchor class for consistent density ratio estimation.
result InfoNCE-anchor yields a plug-in MI estimator with significantly reduced bias.

We study a minimalist kinetic model for economies. A system of agents with local trading rules display emergent demand behaviour. We examine the resulting wealth distribution to look for non-thermal behaviour. We compare and contrast this model with other similar models.

2007-10-05abs ↗pdf ↗

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…

2014-03-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Neural networks are commonly trained to make predictions through learning algorithms. Contrastive Hebbian learning, which is a powerful rule inspired by gradient backpropagation, is based on Hebb's rule and the contrastive divergence algorithm. It operates in two phases, the forward (or free) phase, where the data are …

2018-06-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified theory for neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.

problem Understanding neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
method Probabilistic context-free grammars and power-law distributed production rules.
result Unified learning curve behavior for classification and next-token prediction tasks.

We show that for any Legendrian link LL in the 11-jet space of S1S^1 the 22-graded ruling polynomial, RL2(z)R^2_L(z), is determined by the Thurston-Bennequin number and the HOMFLY-PT polynomial. Specifically, we recover RL2(z)R^2_L(z) as a coefficient of a particular specialization of the HOMFLY-PT polynomial. Furthermore, …

2010-06-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Generative networks minimize predictive scoring rules for probabilistic forecasting.

problem Evaluating and improving probabilistic forecasts using generative models.
method Training generative networks to minimize predictive-sequential scoring rules on temporal sequences.
result Our method outperforms adversarial approaches in probabilistic calibration.

New method improves model explainability and accuracy with low computational cost.

problem Improving model explainability and accuracy in classification models.
method Distributionally robust optimization to learn sparse ensembles of rule sets.
result Improves model performance on various metrics compared to competing methods.

A framework for anonymized risk sharing without revealing identities or preferences.

problem Risk sharing without revealing individual identities or preferences.
method Axiomatic framework with four key axioms: actuarial fairness, risk fairness, risk anonymity, and operational anonymity.
result The conditional mean risk sharing rule is uniquely characterized by these axioms.

Transformer learns representations from time series data for money laundering detection.

problem Detecting money laundering using structured time series data.
method Contrastive learning for representation learning, followed by scoring and thresholding.
result Transformer outperforms rule-based and LSTM methods in detecting money laundering with controlled false positives.

Adversarial training is a technique for training robust machine learning models. To encourage robustness, it iteratively computes adversarial examples for the model, and then re-trains on these examples via some update rule. This work analyzes the performance of adversarial training on linearly separable data, and prov…

2019-05-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of high-dimensional classification between the two groups with unequal covariance matrices. Rather than estimating the full quadratic discriminant rule, we propose to perform simultaneous variable selection and linear dimension reduction on original data, with the subsequent application of quadr…

2017-11-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Recent advances in interpretable Machine Learning (iML) and eXplainable AI (XAI) construct explanations based on the importance of features in classification tasks. However, in a high-dimensional feature space this approach may become unfeasible without restraining the set of important features. We propose to utilize t…

2018-06-19abs ↗pdf ↗

New rule reduces exploration regret to logarithmic, improving bad episode handling.

problem Improving exploration regret in average reward MDPs.
method Replacing Doubling Trick with Vanishing Multiplicative rule in EVI-based algorithms.
result Regret is logarithmic under the new rule, significantly better than linear.

Model identifies causal structure from paired observational and interventional data with unknown soft interventions.

problem Identifying causal structure from observational and interventional data with unknown soft interventions.
method Proposes a scalable causal discovery model that aggregates subset-level PDAGs and applies contrastive cross-regime orientation rules.
result The model asymptotically recovers the identifiable PDAG and can orient additional edges compared to non-contrastive subset-restricted methods.

A simple Ising spin model which can describe the mechanism of price formation in financial markets is proposed. In contrast to other agent-based models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the center site, but spreads outward from the center to the neighbors. The model thus describes th…

2000-12-30abs ↗pdf ↗

State-of-the-art password guessing tools, such as HashCat and John the Ripper, enable users to check billions of passwords per second against password hashes. In addition to performing straightforward dictionary attacks, these tools can expand password dictionaries using password generation rules, such as concatenation…

2017-09-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper connects rejection learning to Bhattacharyya divergence.

problem Learning models to abstain from predictions.
method Developed a link between rejection and thresholding different statistical divergences, focusing on Bhattacharyya divergence.
result Rejector obtained by joint ideal distribution corresponds to thresholding of skewed Bhattacharyya divergence.

A simple Ising spin model which can describe the mechanism of advertising in a duopoly market is proposed. In contrast to other agent-based models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the center site, but spreads outward from the center to the neighbors. The model thus describes the spr…

2002-11-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops transparent global models consistent with local explanations.

problem Creating globally interpretable models that align with local explanations from black-box models.
method Custom boolean features from sparse local contrastive explanations are used to train a globally transparent model.
result Custom transparent models have higher local consistency compared to other strategies.

We consider the problem of learning a forest of nonlinear decision rules with general loss functions. The standard methods employ boosted decision trees such as Adaboost for exponential loss and Friedman's gradient boosting for general loss. In contrast to these traditional boosting algorithms that treat a tree learner…

2011-09-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Study optimal policies under budget and coverage constraints.

problem Optimal policy learning with budget and coverage constraints.
method Combination of knapsack structure, affine threshold rule, linear programming relaxation, Greedy-Lagrangian (GLC), and rank-and-cut (RC) algorithms.
result GLC closely approximates the optimal solution and achieves near-optimal performance in finite samples; RC is approximately optimal under certain conditions.

In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using cross-validation on held-out data, either through kk-fold partitioning or leave-$p…

2019-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved NiNo networks accelerate Adam training by up to 50%.

problem Accelerating neural network training with stable and efficient methods.
method Proposed NiNo networks that leverage neuron connectivity and graph neural networks to nowcast parameters periodically during Adam training.
result Accelerates Adam training by up to 50% in vision and language tasks.

Better methods to detect insider threats need new anticipatory analytics to capture risky behavior prior to losing data. In search of the best overall classifier, this work empirically scores 88 machine learning algorithms in 16 major families. We extract risk features from the large CERT dataset, which blends real net…

2019-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning models predict US economic recessions using Treasury term spreads.

problem Predicting US economic recessions using Treasury term spreads.
method Gradient Boosting and Random Forest methods trained with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework.
result 3 month to 6 month Treasury term spread is the most relevant for predicting US economic recession.

Proposes a new Q-learning method for survival outcomes in clinical trials.

problem Incomplete follow-up data and nonlinear covariate effects in clinical trials.
method Combines Buckley-James boosting with flexible base learners for estimating optimal treatment regimes.
result Improves treatment decision accuracy and stability in longitudinal clinical trials.

CHANI learns classification tasks with local transformations inspired by biology.

problem Proving neural networks can learn classification tasks with local transformations.
method CHANI uses spiking neurons modeled by Hawkes processes with expert aggregation for local learning.
result CHANI can learn and encode multiple classes, forming assemblies of neurons.

This paper prices and replicates the financial derivative whose payoff at TT is the wealth that would have accrued to a $\$1$ deposit into the best continuously-rebalanced portfolio (or fixed-fraction betting scheme) determined in hindsight. For the single-stock Black-Scholes market, Ordentlich and Cover (1998) only p…

2018-10-05abs ↗pdf ↗

We study a formalization of the grammar induction problem that models sentences as being generated by a compound probabilistic context-free grammar. In contrast to traditional formulations which learn a single stochastic grammar, our grammar's rule probabilities are modulated by a per-sentence continuous latent variabl…

2019-06-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Model selection for time series forecasting can be biased by the distribution of scores.

problem Model selection for probabilistic forecasting on time series data.
method Using proper scoring rules to aggregate scores across multiple time series.
result The mean score is immune to the skewness of the score distribution.

Binary classification is a common statistical learning problem in which a model is estimated on a set of covariates for some outcome indicating the membership of one of two classes. In the literature, there exists a distinction between hard and soft classification. In soft classification, the conditional class probabil…

2014-11-19abs ↗pdf ↗

This research focuses on invariant probabilistic predictions, showing they are not robust under distribution shifts.

problem The challenge of creating robust probabilistic predictions that remain consistent under distribution shifts.
method A causality-inspired framework to investigate invariance and robustness of probabilistic predictions with respect to proper scoring rules.
result Arbitrary distribution shifts do not admit invariant and robust probabilistic predictions, unlike point predictions.

The paper compares theoretical and empirical performance of imputation methods for missing data.

problem Missing data in real-world datasets.
method Contrast of theoretical and empirical imputation methods for prediction.
result Mean-imputation is asymptotically optimal for prediction, while mode-imputation is sub-optimal.

This paper introduces a new learning rule for probabilistic SNNs that improves log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration.

problem Training and inference of deterministic SNNs are constrained by their inability to generate multiple independent outputs.
method Introduces a generalized expectation-maximization (GEM) learning rule for probabilistic SNNs.
result The GEM-SNN learning rule leads to significant improvements in log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration.

Study on risk contributions of portfolios using lambda quantile risk measures.

problem No known allocation rule for non-positively homogeneous risk measures.
method Defined lambda quantiles on portfolio compositions, derived derivatives, and introduced generalized Euler contributions.
result Explicit formulae for the derivatives of lambda quantiles, showing their homogeneity properties.