Continuous-time model shows insider trading constraints impact market dynamics.
problem Trading constraints faced by insiders in continuous-time models.
method Proved global existence of equilibrium with terminal trading constraint.
result Equilibrium model aligns with empirical market behaviors.
Develops a new framework for continuous-time trading without probabilistic notions.
problem Analyzes continuous-time trading strategies without relying on stochastic integrals.
method Introduces a purely analytic framework and pathwise self-financing condition.
result Derives pathwise definitions and replication results for trading strategies.
A new trading model combines GARCH and PPO for better stock trading profits.
problem Limited performance of reinforcement learning in stock market trading.
method Parallel-network continuous trading model using GARCH and PPO.
result The model achieves more profit compared to traditional reinforcement learning methods.
The study classifies and imitates trading agents in financial markets.
problem Classifying and imitating trading agents in continuous double auctions.
method Developed an agent-based model for trading, applied opponent modeling for classification, and used behavioral cloning for imitation.
result Techniques for classification and imitation were experimentally compared and evaluated.
Under risk, Arrow-Debreu equilibria can be implemented as Radner equilibria by continuous trading of few long-lived securities. We show that this result generically fails if there is Knightian uncertainty in the volatility. Implementation is only possible if all discounted net trades of the equilibrium allocation are m…
Unified routing and arbitrage with concave continuation.
problem Combining routing and arbitrage in financial markets.
method Extending AMM trade functions to negative inputs via concave continuation.
result Unified approach unifies routing and arbitrage.
This paper describes recent development and test implementation of a continuous time recurrent neural network that has been configured to predict rates of change in securities. It presents outcomes in the context of popular technical analysis indicators and highlights the potential impact of continuous predictive capab…
Optimizes intraday electricity trading to minimize costs.
problem Minimizing costs in intraday electricity trading.
method Derives an optimal model considering order book depth, time to delivery, and trading regimes.
result Optimal execution strategies have a significant monetary impact.
A new definition of events of game-theoretic probability zero in continuous time is proposed and used to prove results suggesting that trading in financial markets results in the emergence of properties usually associated with randomness. This paper concentrates on "qualitative" results, stated in terms of order (or or…
This paper proposes a trading strategy using TD3 for stock and cryptocurrency markets.
problem Predicting price movements in financial markets using historical data.
method Twin-Delayed DDPG (TD3) for continuous action space in algorithmic trading.
result The proposed strategy improves trading performance based on Return and Sharpe ratio metrics.
A financial market model with general semimartingale asset-price processes and where agents can only trade using no-short-sales strategies is considered. We show that wealth processes using continuous trading can be approximated very closely by wealth processes using simple combinations of buy-and-hold trading. This ap…
Equilibrium found for multi-agent trading with transaction costs.
problem Designing a trading equilibrium for multiple agents with transaction costs.
method Proving the existence of a continuous-time Radner equilibrium with incentives and transaction costs.
result Each agent optimally trades for a specific time interval before stopping, influenced by transaction costs.
Study stability of trading strategy under market perturbations.
problem Dynamic stability of trading strategy under market changes.
method Established reverse conjugacy characterizations, proved continuity and convergence of indirect utility process.
result Continuity and first-order convergence of indirect utility process under market perturbations.
Investors face reduced risk and performance loss under dynamic risk constraints in continuous vs. discrete trading.
problem Optimizing portfolio under dynamic risk constraints in continuous and discrete time trading.
method Derive dynamic programming equations for stochastic optimal control problems and solve numerically.
result Loss of expected utility due to dynamic risk constraints is significant but manageable.
We develop from basic economic principles a continuous-time model for a large investor who trades with a finite number of market makers at their utility indifference prices. In this model, the market makers compete with their quotes for the investor's orders and trade among themselves to attain Pareto optimal allocatio…
This paper studies arbitrage pricing theory in financial markets with implicit transaction costs. We extend the existing theory to include the more realistic possibility that the price at which the investors trade is dependent on the traded volume. The investors in the market always buy at the ask and sell at the bid p…
iMOCA optimizes multiple objectives with continuous approximations for resource efficiency.
problem Optimizing multiple objectives with continuous function approximations that balance accuracy and evaluation cost.
method Information-Theoretic Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization with Continuous Approximations (iMOCA) selects input and function approximations to maximize information gain per unit cost.
result iMOCA significantly improves over existing single-fidelity methods in approximating the optimal Pareto set.
Optimal trading strategy in Proof-of-Stake blockchain using continuous-time control.
problem Finding the optimal balance between stake utility and consumption utility in Proof-of-Stake blockchain.
method Continuous-time control approach, dynamic programming, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations.
result Close-form solutions for linear and convex utility functions, optimal strategies identified.
Study high-frequency trading game with price impact, finding unique equilibrium.
problem Optimal execution in a trading game with transient price impact.
method Analyzes high-frequency limit of an n-trader optimal execution game. result High-frequency limit converges to a continuous-time model with quadratic costs.
Using a model of wealth distribution where traders are characterized by quenched random saving propensities and trade among themselves by bipartite transactions, we mimic the enhanced rates of trading of the rich by introducing the preferential selection rule using a pair of continuously tunable parameters. The biparti…
The paper develops no arbitrage results for trajectory based models by imposing general constraints on the trading portfolios. The main condition imposed, in order to avoid arbitrage opportunities, is a local continuity requirement on the final portfolio value considered as a functional on the trajectory space. The pap…
Study shows time matters in automated trading, improving simple strategies over complex ones.
problem Effects of reaction speed and trading urgency on automated trading strategies.
method Simulated financial markets with public limit order book and continuous double auction matching. Examined reaction speed and trading urgency.
result Simple strategies outperform complex ones when considering reaction speed and trading urgency.
This note continues investigation of randomness-type properties emerging in idealized financial markets with continuous price processes. It is shown, without making any probabilistic assumptions, that the strong variation exponent of non-constant price processes has to be 2, as in the case of continuous martingales.
Develops a mathematical model for CLMM dynamics in DeFi.
problem Analyzing CLMMs in continuous time trading.
method Modeling CLMM dynamics as measure-valued processes, examining three arbitrage models.
result Trading fees limit admissible price processes, impacting CLMM design.
Deep RL strategies outperform classical models in trading.
problem Designing profitable trading strategies for futures contracts.
method Deep Reinforcement Learning with volatility scaling.
result Deep RL algorithms outperformed classical models with positive profits.
Study on optimal portfolio selection with varying borrowing and saving rates in continuous-time markets.
problem Optimal portfolio selection in markets with different borrowing and saving rates.
method Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, partial differential equation, verification argument.
result Existence and smoothness of the value function, identification of trading regions and strategies.
Hybrid RL method optimizes trading by balancing continuous and discrete actions.
problem Optimal execution in algorithmic trading with continuous-discrete action space.
method Combines continuous and discrete RL agents for better trading decisions.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods in trading efficiency and stability.
We introduce a new formulation of asset trading games in continuous time in the framework of the game-theoretic probability established by Shafer and Vovk (Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game! (2001) Wiley). In our formulation, the market moves continuously, but an investor trades in discrete times, which can dep…
We develop a polynomial method to optimize trading in markets with transaction costs.
problem Optimizing trading strategies in markets with proportional transaction costs.
method Polynomial approximation of the residual value function to determine optimal trading strategies.
result Identify the trade-off between trading frequency and trade sizes for satisfactory agreement with theoretically optimal strategies.
Trader can make money without borrowing or short selling if they predict future prices perfectly.
problem Trading without borrowing or short selling is theoretically possible with perfect foresight.
method Constructs a self-financing process of finite variation using a semimartingale.
result Shows it's possible to make money without conventional arbitrage constraints.
We price and hedge American options robustly in continuous time.
problem Pricing and hedging American options in continuous time with model uncertainty.
method Assumes continuous semimartingale asset prices and closed convex constraints on volatility. Proves robust pricing-hedging duality and identifies American options as European options on an enlarged space.
result We prove robust pricing-hedging duality and show it holds against richer models with dynamic trading of European options.
A new approach to continuous-time universal portfolios using pathwise Itô calculus.
problem Continuous-time version of Cover's universal portfolio strategies.
method Pathwise Itô calculus approach to establish existence and properties of universal portfolio strategies.
result The universal portfolio strategy's portfolio value process is the average of all values of constant rebalanced strategies.
Study coevolutionary trading-agent dynamics in continuous strategies.
problem Understanding adaptive trading-agent interactions in complex markets.
method Experimental study of adaptive automated trading agents in a continuous strategy space.
result High-dimensional coevolutionary dynamics pose challenges in market analysis.
Extends FTAP to large financial markets with two filtrations.
problem Modeling asset pricing in complex financial markets.
method Generalizes FTAP to continuous time, large markets with two filtrations, without assuming specific properties of price processes.
result A simplified version of FTAP for large financial markets with two filtrations.
Players choose rebalancing rules to maximize their wealth relative to others in a continuous-time trading game.
problem Optimizing wealth in a continuous-time trading game between two players.
method Players choose rebalancing rules to maximize their expected wealth ratio, using the Kelly rule in equilibrium.
result The Kelly rule emerges as the optimal strategy in both short and long time intervals.
The paper analyzes insider trading in a continuous-time stock market with imperfect information.
problem Equilibrium pricing in a market with dynamic private information.
method Characterization of optimal strategies, derivation of closed-form solutions for order processes and pricing rules.
result There is a unique Markovian equilibrium price process allowing the insider to trade undetected, and the insider's presence increases market informational efficiency.
Paper proposes trading strategies considering stock taxes for better returns.
problem Trading strategies without tax consideration can lead to significant loss.
method Used deep reinforcement learning to learn optimal trading strategies with and without taxes.
result Tax ignorance can cause more than 62% loss in average portfolio returns.
FinRL-Podracer accelerates DRL trading strategies in finance with high performance and scalability.
problem Challenges in applying deep reinforcement learning to finance trading models.
method Proposes an RLOps framework and high-performance cloud solution for DRL trading.
result FinRL-Podracer outperforms existing DRL libraries by 12-35% in annual return, 0.1-0.6 in Sharpe ratio, and 3-7 times in training time.
High-frequency trading strategy boosts battery storage profits.
problem Maximizing revenue for battery energy storage systems in intraday markets.
method Adapted dynamic programming for continuous intraday markets, considering limit order book dynamics.
result Dynamic programming strategy outperforms standard re-optimization methods, increasing profits by 58% and 14% respectively.
Study on optimal information acquisition in Kyle model with entropy cost.
problem Optimal information acquisition in Kyle model with entropy cost.
method Continuous signals are optimal, and any signal with a logit posterior distribution yields the same ex-ante value.
result Posterior expected payoff becomes normally distributed as information acquisition cost increases.
Complex contagion model explains financial fire sales through continuous asset prices.
problem Modeling financial fire sales with a continuum of asset prices.
method Developed a threshold model of continuous-state cascades using real values for asset prices.
result Discretization approach accurately replicates the distribution of defaulted banks and asset prices.
Study optimizes trading in multiple assets with cross-effects.
problem Optimizing trade execution in multiple assets with cross-impact effects.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, extended to progressively measurable controls, solved using linear-quadratic control theory.
result Cross-hedging effects can be optimal, e.g., trading in an asset without an initial position.
New insights into neural network forgetting reveal a trade-off between node activation and re-use.
problem Challenges in maintaining performance on old tasks while learning new ones.
method Theoretical analysis of synthetic and real data setups, focusing on node activation vs re-use.
result Worst forgetting occurs in an intermediate similarity regime between learned tasks.
Model shows how price impact and transaction costs affect trading behavior and profits.
problem Analyzing trading behavior and profits in markets with transaction costs and price impact.
method Proves the existence of an equilibrium in a model with transaction costs and price impact.
result Existence of a strictly positive optimal transaction cost from the exchange's perspective.
We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit arbitrary patterns of deviations of nature's moves from independent Bernoulli trial…
NoxTrader predicts stock returns using LSTM for profitable trading.
problem Predicting profitable stock returns for quantitative trading.
method LSTM model for time-series analysis of stock data.
result Improved investment return from -60% to 325%.
The use of the trading halts is a practice common to all markets. However, the advantages and the disadvantages of the measurements are regularly discussed. The partisans think that the trading suspensions or the price limits make it possible to the investors to have time to react to the new information. The detractors…
We solve exactly a simple model of trend following strategy, and obtain the analytical shape of the profit per trade distribution. This distribution is non trivial and has an option like, asymmetric structure. The degree of asymmetry depends continuously on the parameters of the strategy and on the volatility of the tr…