arXiv research

Complex contagion model explains financial fire sales through continuous asset prices.

We consider a class of generalized capital asset pricing models in continuous time with a finite number of agents and tradable securities. The securities may not be sufficient to span all sources of uncertainty. If the agents have exponential utility functions and the individual endowments are spanned by the securities…

Study shows price bubbles can exist even with heterogeneous beliefs.

Proves FTAP in markets with or without transaction costs.

This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both volatility and drift. Corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are presented. First, we derive arbitrage-free pricing rules based on hedging argumen…

The paper uses deep learning to detect asset price bubbles in tech stocks.

We explain the main concepts of Prospect Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory within the framework of rational dynamic asset pricing theory. We derive option pricing formulas when asset returns are altered with a generalized Prospect Theory value function or a modified Prelec weighting probability function and introdu…

Integrates ESG factors into Bachelier's model for asset pricing.

We explore a decomposition in which returns on a large class of portfolios relative to the market depend on a smooth non-negative drift and changes in the asset price distribution. This decomposition is obtained using general continuous semimartingale price representations, and is thus consistent with virtually any ass…

Develops a new filtration for asset pricing models.

We study markets with no riskless (safe) asset. We derive the corresponding Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing equations for markets where there are only risky assets which have the following price dynamics: (i) continuous diffusions; (ii) jump-diffusions; (iii) diffusions with stochastic volatilities, and; (iv) geome…

In this paper we propose a general derivative pricing framework which employs decoupled time-changed (DTC) Lévy processes to model the underlying asset of contingent claims. A DTC Lévy process is a generalized time-changed Lévy process whose continuous and pure jump parts are allowed to follow separate random time scal…

Formulates superhedging under costs and uncertainty for continuous assets.

Exponential Lévy processes have been used for modelling financial derivatives because of their ability to exhibit many empirical features of markets. Using their multidimensional analogue, a general analytic pricing formula is obtained, allowing for the direct valuation of multi-asset options on $n \in \z^+$ risky asse…

Employing probabilistic techniques we compute best possible upper and lower bounds on the price of an option on one or two assets with continuous piecewise linear payoff function based on prices of simple call options of possibly distinct maturities and the no-arbitrage condition, but without any assumption on the pric…

This paper gives yet another definition of game-theoretic probability in the context of continuous-time idealized financial markets. Without making any probabilistic assumptions (but assuming positive and continuous price paths), we obtain a simple expression for the equity premium and derive a version of the capital a…

This paper consists of two parts. In the first part we prove the fundamental theorem of asset pricing under short sales prohibitions in continuous-time financial models where asset prices are driven by nonnegative, locally bounded semimartingales. A key step in this proof is an extension of a well-known result of Ansel…

Under proportional transaction costs, a price process is said to have a consistent price system, if there is a semimartingale with an equivalent martingale measure that evolves within the bid-ask spread. We show that a continuous, multi-asset price process has a consistent price system, under arbitrarily small proporti…

Study of a risk-averse informed trader in a multi-asset market with non-Gaussian prices.

We introduce a new formulation of asset trading games in continuous time in the framework of the game-theoretic probability established by Shafer and Vovk (Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game! (2001) Wiley). In our formulation, the market moves continuously, but an investor trades in discrete times, which can dep…

The target of this paper is to consider model the risky asset price on the financial market under the Knightian uncertainty, and pricing the ask and bid prices of the uncertain risk. We use the nonlinear analysis tool, i.e., G-frame work [26], to construct the model of the risky asset price and bid-ask pricing for the …

In this paper, we combine modern portfolio theory and option pricing theory so that a trader who takes a position in a European option contract and the underlying assets can construct an optimal portfolio such that at the moment of the contract's maturity the contract is perfectly hedged. We derive both the optimal hol…

Analytical pricing formulas and Greeks are obtained for European and American basket put options using Mellin transforms. We assume assets are driven by geometric Brownian motion which exhibit correlation and pay a continuous dividend rate. A novel approach to numerical Mellin inversion is achieved via the fast Fourier…

This paper studies the equilibrium price of an asset that is traded in continuous time between N agents who have heterogeneous beliefs about the state process underlying the asset's payoff. We propose a tractable model where agents maximize expected returns under quadratic costs on inventories and trading rates. The un…

The paper explores perpetual contracts in a financial market without arbitrage.

In this note, we consider European options of type $h(X^1_T, X^2_T,\ldots, X^n_T)$ depending on several underlying assets. We give a multidimensional version of the result of Breeden and Litzenberger \cite{Breeden} on the relation between derivatives of the call price and the risk-neutral density of the underlying asse…

Paper establishes robust asset pricing theorems under uncertainty.

This paper proposes a new geometric framework for asset pricing.

We introduce signature payoffs, a family of path-dependent derivatives that are given in terms of the signature of the price path of the underlying asset. We show that these derivatives are dense in the space of continuous payoffs, a result that is exploited to quickly price arbitrary continuous payoffs. This approach …

We price and hedge American options robustly in continuous time.

We propose a reduced form set of two coupled continuous time equations linking the price of a representative asset and the price of a bond, the later quantifying the cost of borrowing. The feedbacks between asset prices and bonds are mediated by the dependence of their "fundamental values" on past asset prices and bond…

We discuss the pricing of defaultable assets in an incomplete information model where the default time is given by a first hitting time of an unobservable process. We show that in a fairly general Markov setting, the indicator function of the default has an absolutely continuous compensator. Given this compensator we t…

This paper studies the pricing of European-style Asian options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are assumed to follow a Markov- modulated geometric Brownian motion; that is, the appreciation rate and the volatility of the underlying risky asset depend on unobservable states of the economy described…

This paper investigates the pricing of European-style lookback options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are assumed to follow a Markov-modulated Geo-metric Brownian motion; that is, the appreciation rate and the volatility of the underlying risky asset depend on unobservable states of the economy d…

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative meas…

We show how to price and replicate a variety of barrier-style claims written on the $\log$ price $X$ and quadratic variation $\langle X \rangle$ of a risky asset. Our framework assumes no arbitrage, frictionless markets and zero interest rates. We model the risky asset as a strictly positive continuous semimartingale w…

Extends CRR model with q-binomial random walks for asset pricing.

Two models incorporate market microstructure noise into asset pricing and option valuation.

This paper studies an optimal trading problem that incorporates the trader's market view on the terminal asset price distribution and uninformative noise embedded in the asset price dynamics. We model the underlying asset price evolution by an exponential randomized Brownian bridge (rBb) and consider various prior dist…

Study uses MFG approach to model equilibrium pricing with market clearing condition.

We solve in closed-form an equilibrium model in which a finite number of exponential investors continuously consume and trade with price-impact. Compared to the analogous Pareto-efficient equilibrium model, price-impact has an amplification effect on risk-sharing distortions that helps resolve the interest rate puzzle …

The paper extends option pricing theory for markets with informed traders.

We present a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) for continuous time large financial markets with two filtrations in an $L^p$-setting for $1 \leq p < \infty$. This extends the results of Yuri Kabanov and Christophe Stricker \cite{KS:06} to continuous time and to a large financial market setting,…

"Fundamental theorem of asset pricing" roughly states that absence of arbitrage opportunity in a market is equivalent to the existence of a risk-neutral probability. We give a simple counterexample to this oversimplified statement. Prices are given by linear forms which do not always correspond to probabilities. We giv…

The study analyzes how wartime controls influenced zaibatsu stock prices in Japan.

We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit arbitrary patterns of deviations of nature's moves from independent Bernoulli trial…

Model optimal growth strategy in a market with short-lived assets.

Study optimal strategy for maximizing exponential utility in financial market with linear price impact.