A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The balance property is crucial for insurance pricing, ensuring total actuarial price equals loss. Maximum likelihood GLMs fulfill it, but Lindholm-Wüthrich suggests three methods, with constrained GLM being superior.
problem Ensuring the balance property in insurance pricing models
method Using constrained GLM fitting
result Constrained GLM fitting is superior to the two previously discussed balance correction methods
Inference is typically intractable in high-treewidth undirected graphical models, making maximum likelihood learning a challenge. One way to overcome this is to restrict parameters to a tractable set, most typically the set of tree-structured parameters. This paper explores an alternative notion of a tractable set, nam…
Synthesizes sensor likelihoods to enforce accuracy constraints in uncertain systems.
problem Designing sensing architectures for systems with uncertain or unavailable sensor models and accuracy requirements.
method Inverts the design flow, synthesizing measurement likelihoods that minimize Kullback-Leibler divergence from the prior while enforcing an accuracy bound.
result The method synthesizes a maximum-entropy posterior and induced likelihood, accommodating various discrepancy metrics.
Our work is focused on the joint sparsity recovery problem where the common sparsity pattern is corrupted by Poisson noise. We formulate the confidence-constrained optimization problem in both least squares (LS) and maximum likelihood (ML) frameworks and study the conditions for perfect reconstruction of the original r…
The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is an iterative method for finding maximum likelihood estimates when data are incomplete or are treated as being incomplete. The EM algorithm and its variants are commonly used for parameter estimation in applications of mixture models for clustering and classification. This …
We study optimization methods for solving the maximum likelihood formulation of independent component analysis (ICA). We consider both the the problem constrained to white signals and the unconstrained problem. The Hessian of the objective function is costly to compute, which renders Newton's method impractical for lar…
This paper introduces constrained mixtures for continuous distributions, characterized by a mixture of distributions where each distribution has a shape similar to the base distribution and disjoint domains. This new concept is used to create generalized asymmetric versions of the Laplace and normal distributions, whic…
We consider in this paper the problem of noisy 1-bit matrix completion under a general non-uniform sampling distribution using the max-norm as a convex relaxation for the rank. A max-norm constrained maximum likelihood estimate is introduced and studied. The rate of convergence for the estimate is obtained. Information…
Factor analysis, a classical multivariate statistical technique is popularly used as a fundamental tool for dimensionality reduction in statistics, econometrics and data science. Estimation is often carried out via the Maximum Likelihood (ML) principle, which seeks to maximize the likelihood under the assumption that t…
Certain biological neurons demonstrate a remarkable capability to optimally compress the history of sensory inputs while being maximally informative about the future. In this work, we investigate if the same can be said of artificial neurons in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) trained with maximum likelihood. Empirical…
Maximum likelihood estimation fails to be well-posed in Gaussian process regression.
problem Establishing well-posedness of maximum likelihood estimation in Gaussian process regression.
method Analyzing the conditions under which maximum likelihood estimation is not Lipschitz in the data with respect to the Hellinger distance.
result Maximum likelihood estimation is not well-posed in the noiseless data setting for any Gaussian process with a stationary covariance function whose lengthscale parameter is estimated using maximum likelihood.
Adversarial learning of probabilistic models has recently emerged as a promising alternative to maximum likelihood. Implicit models such as generative adversarial networks (GAN) often generate better samples compared to explicit models trained by maximum likelihood. Yet, GANs sidestep the characterization of an explici…
In this work, we propose an infinite restricted Boltzmann machine~(RBM), whose maximum likelihood estimation~(MLE) corresponds to a constrained convex optimization. We consider the Frank-Wolfe algorithm to solve the program, which provides a sparse solution that can be interpreted as inserting a hidden unit at each ite…
This paper studies a class of exponential family models whose canonical parameters are specified as linear functionals of an unknown infinite-dimensional slope function. The optimal minimax rates of convergence for slope function estimation are established. The estimators that achieve the optimal rates are constructed …
We consider the maximum likelihood estimation of sparse inverse covariance matrices. We demonstrate that current heuristic approaches primarily encourage robustness, instead of the desired sparsity. We give a novel approach that solves the cardinality constrained likelihood problem to certifiable optimality. The approa…
We consider two connected aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of the parameter for high-dimensional discrete graphical models: the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (mle) and its computation. When the data is sparse, there are many zeros in the contingency table and the maximum likelihood estimate of th…
Invertibility conditions for observation-driven time series models often fail to be guaranteed in empirical applications. As a result, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood and quasi-maximum likelihood estimators may be compromised. We derive considerably weaker conditions that can be used in practice to ensure t…
TTERGM models improve social network predictions by incorporating triadic relationships.
problem Lack of models capturing triadic relationships and social learning theories in temporal network data.
method Introduced TTERGM, a generative model that includes triadic relationships and social learning theory as additional probability distributions. Parameters are estimated via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood.
result TTERGM achieves improved accuracy and fidelity compared to existing models on social network data.
The likelihood function of a finite mixture model is a non-convex function with multiple local maxima and commonly used iterative algorithms such as EM will converge to different solutions depending on initial conditions. In this paper we ask: is it possible to assess how far we are from the global maximum of the likel…
This work investigates training infinite mixtures with maximum likelihood for improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving uncertainty quantification in neural networks.
method Investigates training infinite mixtures with maximum likelihood instead of variational inference.
result The proposed method leads to stochastic networks with increased predictive variance, improved robustness, and higher entropy on out-of-distribution data.
Constrained adaptive filtering algorithms inculding constrained least mean square (CLMS), constrained affine projection (CAP) and constrained recursive least squares (CRLS) have been extensively studied in many applications. Most existing constrained adaptive filtering algorithms are developed under mean square error (…