Develops methods for valid and validated confidence sets in multiclass and multilabel prediction.
problem Challenges of typical conformal prediction methods in multiclass and multilabel problems, especially uneven coverage.
method Leverages quantile regression to build methods that always guarantee correct coverage and asymptotically optimal conditional coverage, addressing label interactions with tree-structured classifiers.
result Empirical evaluation suggests more robust coverage of confidence sets.
Improved conformal prediction for better conditional coverage of classifier predictions.
problem Achieving exact conditional coverage in finite samples for prediction sets.
method Developed a variant of conformal prediction targeting coverage conditional on confidence and trust score.
result Empirically improved conditional coverage properties compared to standard conformal prediction.
Responds to critiques on tests for causal parameter confidence intervals.
problem Testing nominal confidence interval coverage for causal parameters estimated by machine learning.
method Rejoinder to critiques on nearly assumption-free tests.
result Clarifies and supports the original research's approach.
New method predicts sets under unknown covariate shift with high confidence.
problem Adapting to unknown covariate shift in prediction sets.
method PredSet-1Step, a flexible distribution-free method.
result Achieves asymptotic probably approximately correct coverage.
CONTINA provides adaptive confidence intervals for traffic demand prediction.
problem Uncertainty in future traffic demand predictions and the need for valid confidence intervals.
method Adaptive confidence interval method that adjusts based on deployment errors.
result Valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths and theoretical coverage guarantee.
This work introduces COLA, a strategy to aggregate conformal prediction sets efficiently.
problem Efficiently combining multiple conformity scores to reduce prediction set size.
method Introduces COnfidence-Level Allocation (COLA) to optimally allocate confidence levels across sets.
result COLA achieves smaller prediction sets than state-of-the-art methods while maintaining valid coverage.
New methods improve confidence set calibration in complex models.
problem Challenges in maintaining confidence set coverage in complex models.
method TRUST and TRUST++ methods using simulated data for calibration.
result Methods achieve distribution-free conditional coverage and robust inference.
The age of big data has produced data sets that are computationally expensive to analyze and store. Algorithmic leveraging proposes that we sample observations from the original data set to generate a representative data set and then perform analysis on the representative data set. In this paper, we present efficient a…
New method improves conditional coverage of conformal prediction.
problem Improving conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
method Trainable transformation of conformity scores to improve conditional coverage.
result Highly adaptive to local data structure, outperforming existing methods.
The paper addresses the gap between theoretical and practical confidence set widths in universal inference.
problem Inference procedures can be overly conservative, leading to wider confidence sets than expected.
method The authors identify the source of asymptotic conservativeness and propose a remedy based on studentization and bias correction.
result The proposed method achieves exact asymptotic coverage at the nominal 1−α level, even under model misspecification. New method uses weak labels to create valid confidence sets for predictions.
problem Lack of labeled data in machine learning models.
method Developed a conformal prediction framework to provide valid predictive confidence sets using weakly labeled data.
result New coverage definition allows for tighter and more informative (but valid) confidence sets.
Algorithm finds small confidence sets for arbitrary distributions.
problem Learning high-density regions in arbitrary distributions.
method Competitive with sets from a concept class with bounded VC-dimension.
result Algorithm finds a confidence set with volume exp(ildeO(d1/2)) competitive with optimal ball. CP improves robustness against distribution shift using physics-informed structural causal models.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions under distributional shift.
method Physics-informed structural causal model (PI-SCM) to upper bound coverage difference.
result PI-SCM improves coverage robustness across confidence levels and test domains.
Study compares imputation methods' effects on IML confidence intervals.
problem Missing data impacts IML interpretation and confidence intervals.
method Compared single vs multiple imputation methods on IML confidence intervals.
result Multiple imputation provides closer coverage to nominal than single imputation.
Framework for confidence estimation in deep CT reconstructions.
problem Uncertainty in deep learning-based CT reconstructions.
method Sequential likelihood mixing framework with log-linear forward model.
result Deep models yield tighter confidence regions than classical methods.
Private statistical inference methods improve confidence interval lengths.
problem Constructing private confidence intervals with differential privacy.
method Proposed two private variants of non-parametric bootstrap.
result Achieve similar coverage accuracy to non-private methods with shorter intervals.
A new framework bridges classical and machine learning methods for reliable inference from complex models.
problem Intractable likelihood functions in complex systems make classical statistics ineffective for likelihood-free inference.
method Likelihood-Free Frequentist Inference (LF2I) framework that combines classical statistics and machine learning.
result Valid confidence sets with near finite-sample validity can be constructed for any parameter value.
New sampling bounds improve uniform coverage verification in machine learning.
problem Conservative bounds in classical coverage analyses at small failure probabilities.
method Variance-based analysis of uniform random sampling on a d-dimensional unit hypercube. result Sample complexity bound with logarithmic dependence on failure probability.
Novel method for time-series prediction with tighter confidence intervals.
problem Improving prediction intervals for time-series data.
method Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI) using adaptive weights.
result KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals with guaranteed coverage.
Efficient method for high confidence level inference using parallel stochastic optimization.
problem Uncertainty quantification for online estimation.
method Small number of independent multi-runs to construct t-based confidence intervals.
result Rigorous theoretical guarantee for exact coverage of confidence intervals.
The paper introduces a method to assess machine translation quality with confidence intervals.
problem Evaluating the uncertainty and quality of machine translation.
method Utilizes conformal predictive distributions to produce prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.
result The method outperforms a baseline on six language pairs in terms of coverage and sharpness.
Proposes methods for online conformal prediction with nested prediction sets across multiple confidence levels.
problem Need for uncertainty quantification with multiple confidence levels in diverse applications.
method Online optimization perspective to enforce nestedness of prediction sets while controlling quantile estimation error.
result Achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency.
The paper improves the empirical bootstrap method for non-normal estimators.
problem Theoretical properties of empirical bootstrap for non-asymptotically normal estimators.
method Establishing limiting distribution, deriving consistency conditions, proposing alternative methods.
result The empirical bootstrap method can be asymptotically consistent under stability conditions.
New flexible confidence sequences for robust statistical inference.
problem Creating robust statistical inference methods that work under mild assumptions.
method Proposed a new class of asymptotic time-uniform confidence sequences.
result Sharp asymptotic time-uniform confidence sequences achieved under mild assumptions.
New method provides reliable high-confidence prediction intervals for high-impact events.
problem High-impact events require very high confidence prediction intervals, but classical methods provide uninformative intervals.
method Bridge extreme value statistics and conformal prediction to provide reliable and informative prediction intervals.
result Provides reliable and informative prediction intervals with high-confidence coverage.
Study shows NCCP can replace CP for ACI in non-exchangeable data.
problem Ensuring reliable prediction under non-exchangeability.
method Demonstrates NCCP as a valid alternative to CP for ACI.
result NCCP offers computational advantages and comparable predictive efficiency.
ICP provides interval predictions with high confidence coverage.
problem High-risk settings where true output must be highly probable.
method ICP is a distribution-free, model-agnostic algorithm.
result ICP outputs prediction intervals with high coverage probability.
General predictive models do not provide a measure of confidence in predictions without Bayesian assumptions. A way to circumvent potential restrictions is to use conformal methods for constructing non-parametric confidence regions, that offer guarantees regarding validity. In this paper we provide a detailed descripti…
Practical or scientific considerations often lead to selecting a subset of parameters as ``important.'' Inferences about those parameters often are based on the same data used to select them in the first place. That can make the reported uncertainties deceptively optimistic: confidence intervals that ignore selection g…
Random forest training yields confidence intervals for generalization error.
problem Computing accurate confidence intervals for random forest generalization error.
method Directly computes confidence intervals from training data without data splitting.
result Confidence intervals have good coverage and appropriate width.
This work improves confidence intervals for Cox model test error using nested CV.
problem Insufficient understanding of confidence intervals for cross-validation in Cox model.
method Generalized nested cross-validation to Cox proportional hazards model.
result Improved coverage of confidence intervals for Cox model test error.
New method constructs confidence bands for ODE models with unknown regulatory effects.
problem Building confidence bands for ODE models with unknown regulatory relations is challenging.
method Localized kernel learning approach combined with de-biasing method.
result The constructed confidence band has the desired asymptotic coverage probability and accurately recovers the regulatory network.
Parameter estimation, statistical tests and confidence sets are the cornerstones of classical statistics that allow scientists to make inferences about the underlying process that generated the observed data. A key question is whether one can still construct hypothesis tests and confidence sets with proper coverage and…
Near-optimal confidence intervals for bounded data.
problem Online inference for sequential decision problems like A/B testing.
method Utilizing Bentkus' concentration results to improve on existing methods.
result Near-optimal confidence intervals confirmed favorable in synthetic and practical applications.
FAQ efficiently evaluates LLMs with statistical guarantees using adaptive query selection.
problem Efficiently evaluating many LLMs on a large suite of benchmarks is expensive.
method FAQ uses Bayesian factor models, adaptive sampling, and proactive active inference to select queries.
result FAQ delivers up to 5x effective sample size gains over baselines, matching CI width with fewer queries.
T-SCI improves Cox-MLP's guaranteed coverage for censored data.
problem Losing guaranteed coverage when relaxing linear assumption with neural networks.
method Two-stage conformal inference algorithm with non-conformity score.
result T-SCI provides guaranteed coverage under milder assumptions.
Algorithm generates adaptive confidence sets for instance segmentation with guaranteed coverage.
problem Uncalibrated predictions and lack of uncertainty quantification in instance segmentation models.
method Conformal prediction algorithm to generate adaptive confidence sets with provable guarantees.
result Empirically, prediction sets vary in size based on query difficulty and attain target coverage, outperforming baselines.
This paper offers a distribution-free method for post-detection changepoint localization.
problem Locating the exact time of a change in distribution after a sequential detection procedure.
method A distribution-free framework using conformal test martingales for sequential change detection and post-detection inference.
result Valid post-detection coverage guarantees and non-asymptotic bounds on confidence set size.
We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a generalized empirical likelihood framework---based on distributional uncertainty se…
New method provides valid confidence intervals for spatial associations.
problem Limited insight into covariate-response relationships in spatial settings.
method Lipschitz-driven uncertainty quantification for spatial association.
result Valid frequentist confidence intervals for associations in spatial settings.
Develops methods for estimating and providing confidence bands in sparse high-dimensional additive models.
problem Estimating and providing reliable confidence bands for nonparametric components in high-dimensional additive models.
method Integrates sieve estimation into a high-dimensional Z-estimation framework, employing a multiplier bootstrap procedure.
result Constructs uniformly valid confidence bands for the target component f1 in sparse high-dimensional additive models. Develops a simple method for creating private confidence intervals.
problem Creating private confidence intervals for parametric estimation.
method Parametric bootstrap approach to construct confidence intervals.
result The parametric bootstrap provides consistent and effective confidence intervals.
The goal of confidence-set learning in the binary classification setting is to construct two sets, each with a specific probability guarantee to cover a class. An observation outside the overlap of the two sets is deemed to be from one of the two classes, while the overlap is an ambiguity region which could belong to e…
A universal framework for constructing confidence sets using sequential likelihood mixing.
problem Constructing reliable confidence sets for realizable likelihood functions.
method Sequential likelihood mixing, integrating Bayesian inference and regret inequalities.
result Establishes fundamental connections and provable coverage guarantees for various inference techniques.
The paper develops time-uniform inference methods for stochastic approximation parameters.
problem Statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
method Analysis of averaged iterates convergence rates and construction of asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Valid asymptotic confidence sequences for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
The paper introduces uncertainty quantification for NER models.
problem Current NER models lack uncertainty measures, leading to downstream errors.
method Full-Sequence and Subsequence Conformal Prediction framework.
result The method provides formal guarantees about the reliability of model predictions.
Introduces CCR for constructing confidence regions from conformal predictions.
problem Challenges in constructing confidence regions for model parameters.
method Combines conformal prediction intervals for model outputs to establish confidence regions for parameters under minimal assumptions.
result Valid coverage guarantees for finite sample regime, applicable to various model types.
Paper proposes a method to estimate confidence bands for survival random forests.
problem No statistically valid and computationally feasible approach for estimating confidence bands for survival random forests.
method Extending recent developments in infinite-order incomplete U-statistics, the paper proposes an unbiased confidence band estimation.
result The proposed method accurately estimates the confidence band and achieves desired coverage rate.