Bayesian SAE model with spectral clustering and uncertainty quantification.
problem Small Area Estimation (SAE) with uncertainty quantification.
method Spectral clustering with external covariates, posterior projections, and CPMSE.
result Closed form expressions for posterior mean estimators and CPMSE.
Study compares chi-squared divergence and KL-divergence posteriors for PAC-Bayesian bounds.
problem Investigates optimal posteriors for PAC-Bayesian bounds using chi-squared divergence.
method Analyzes bounds for three distance functions, derives FP equations for computation.
result Chi-squared divergence based posteriors have weaker bounds and worse test errors.
Double Q-learning has the same mean-squared error as Q-learning under certain conditions.
problem Comparing the mean-squared error of Double Q-learning and Q-learning.
method Theoretical analysis based on Lyapunov equations for both tabular and linear function approximation settings.
result The asymptotic mean-squared error of Double Q-learning is exactly equal to that of Q-learning under specific conditions.
The paper provides mean-square error bounds for stochastic approximation algorithms.
problem Error bounds for recursive equations with Markovian disturbances.
method Analysis of mean-square error for stochastic approximation algorithms.
result Mean-square error achieves the optimal rate of O(1/n) under certain conditions. We consider the problem of subspace estimation in a Bayesian setting. Since we are operating in the Grassmann manifold, the usual approach which consists of minimizing the mean square error (MSE) between the true subspace U and its estimate U^ may not be adequate as the MSE is not the natural metric in the Gra…
Bayesian inference for inverse problems using mean-shift interacting particles
problem Bayesian inference for inverse problems
method Amortized mean-shift interacting particles
result Improves accuracy of Bayesian inference by reducing the number of samples needed
This letter presents an improved version of diffusion least mean ppower (LMP) algorithm for distributed estimation. Instead of sum of mean square errors, a weighted sum of mean square error is defined as the cost function for global and local cost functions of a network of sensors. The weight coefficients are updated b…
New method addresses error bounds for PnP-ULA under mismatched models.
problem Error bounds for PnP-ULA under mismatched measurement and prior models.
method Posterior-L2 pseudometric to quantify error bounds.
result Explicit error bound for PnP-ULA under mismatched posterior distribution.
New GP methods account for both data and computational uncertainty.
problem Approximation error in Gaussian process models.
method Develops a new class of methods to estimate combined uncertainty.
result Proves convergence and decomposability of combined posterior covariance.
We consider a univariate semimartingale model for (the logarithm of) an asset price, containing jumps having possibly infinite activity (IA). The nonparametric threshold estimator of the integrated variance IV proposed in Mancini 2009 is constructed using observations on a discrete time grid, and precisely it sums up t…
Paper analyzes convergence of two time-scale stochastic approximation using martingale approach.
problem Analyzing convergence of two time-scale stochastic approximation algorithms.
method Uses martingale approach to establish convergence conditions and rates.
result Establishes different rates of convergence for fast and slow subsystems.
We study convergence rates of variational posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We formulate general conditions on prior, likelihood, and variational class that characterize the convergence rates. Under similar "prior mass and testing" conditions considered in the literature, the rat…
Proposes a new method for posterior sampling using MMD with negative distance kernel.
problem Posterior sampling and conditional generative modeling.
method Approximates joint distribution using discrete Wasserstein gradient flows of MMD with negative distance kernel.
result Establishes an error bound for posterior distributions and proves the method is a Wasserstein gradient flow.
This paper presents a stochastic behavior analysis of a kernel-based stochastic restricted-gradient descent method. The restricted gradient gives a steepest ascent direction within the so-called dictionary subspace. The analysis provides the transient and steady state performance in the mean squared error criterion. It…
The paper analyzes the error accumulation in a compositional score-based algorithm for SBI.
problem How to effectively combine multiple observations to improve parameter inference.
method Study of the GAUSS algorithm's compositional score and its mean squared error.
result Established an upper bound on the mean squared error of the compositional score.
Paper optimizes diffusion models for denoising tasks with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of MSE optimality in diffusion models.
method Inspired by MSE-optimal CME, proposes a novel denoising strategy for diffusion models.
result Demonstrates polynomial-time convergence to the CME under mild conditions.
Efficiently estimates private least squares with linear error growth.
problem Private estimation of ordinary least squares with bounded residuals and leverage.
method Scaled noise added to a stable nonprivate estimator of the regression vector.
result Near-optimal accuracy guarantee with linear error growth in dimension.
This work addresses privacy in Bayesian estimation, achieving near-optimal error rates.
problem Preserving privacy in Bayesian estimation while maintaining optimal estimation accuracy.
method Developed efficient algorithms for Gaussian mean estimation and linear regression with near-optimal error rates, leveraging sum-of-squares techniques.
result Achieved near-optimal mean-squared error rates for Bayesian mean estimation and linear regression, with computational-statistical gaps.
Neighborhood sampling affects graph neural network training outcomes.
problem Understanding the impact of neighborhood sampling on graph neural network training.
method Theoretical analysis using neural tangent kernels and Gaussian processes.
result Posterior covariance differs for different neighborhood sampling approaches, indicating no dominant approach.
A fast method for LOOCV in k-NN regression reduces computation time.
problem Efficient computation of LOOCV for k-NN regression.
method Identical LOOCV estimate to (k+1)-NN MSE on training data.
result LOOCV computation can be done with (k+1)-NN regression once.
A new sampler for FLMs improves token-level decoding controls.
problem Sampling from FLMs using standard methods collapses marginals and produces invalid sequences.
method Samples clean one-hot endpoints from FLM token marginals and uses Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridges conditioned on these endpoints.
result The method preserves token-wise posterior-predictive marginals and improves quality-diversity tradeoff.
A new particle algorithm improves mean-field variational inference.
problem Efficiently approximating nonparametric posterior distributions in machine learning.
method Introduces PArticle VI (PAVI), a novel particle-based algorithm for nonparametric mean-field approximation.
result Obtains non-asymptotic error bounds for PArticle VI, providing the first end-to-end guarantee for particle-based MFVI.
Traditional Kalman filter (KF) is derived under the well-known minimum mean square error (MMSE) criterion, which is optimal under Gaussian assumption. However, when the signals are non-Gaussian, especially when the system is disturbed by some heavy-tailed impulsive noises, the performance of KF will deteriorate serious…
Despite the simplicity and intuitive interpretation of Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) estimators, their effectiveness in certain scenarios is questionable. Indeed, minimizing squared errors on average does not provide any form of stability, as the volatility of the estimation error is left unconstrained. When this v…
Bayesian PINN improves estimation of PDE solutions from noisy data.
problem Estimating solutions of PDEs from noisy measurements.
method Bayesian approach to Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for inverse problems.
result Convergence rate of Bayesian posterior mean error in PDE solutions.
We study the relationship between online Gaussian process (GP) regression and kernel least mean squares (KLMS) algorithms. While the latter have no capacity of storing the entire posterior distribution during online learning, we discover that their operation corresponds to the assumption of a fixed posterior covariance…
Wide deep neural networks with Gaussian weights approximate Gaussian processes closely.
problem Understanding the approximation of deep neural networks with Gaussian weights to Gaussian processes.
method Established novel rates for the Gaussian approximation of random deep neural networks with Gaussian parameters and Lipschitz activation functions in the wide limit.
result The distance between the network output and the Gaussian approximation scales inversely with the width of the network.
Asymptotic error distribution for approximation of a stochastic integral with respect to continuous semimartingale by Riemann sum with general stochastic partition is studied. Effective discretization schemes of which asymptotic conditional mean-squared error attains a lower bound are constructed. Two applications are …
Paper proposes a method to break symmetries in Bayesian matrix factorization.
problem Symmetries in posterior distribution reduce MCMC sampling efficiency.
method Modification to Gaussian prior mean and covariance to break symmetries.
result Breaking symmetries leads to lower autocorrelation and reconstruction errors.
This paper proposes a new algorithm for Gaussian process classification based on posterior linearisation (PL). In PL, a Gaussian approximation to the posterior density is obtained iteratively using the best possible linearisation of the conditional mean of the labels and accounting for the linearisation error. PL has s…
Extends neural network training framework to handle noise and uncertainty.
problem Handling noise and uncertainty in neural network training.
method Integrates non-zero aleatoric noise and derives posterior covariance for epistemic uncertainty.
result Derives an estimator for posterior covariance, providing a handle on epistemic uncertainty.
Improved estimator for least squares using random projections achieves smaller error.
problem Improving the accuracy of least squares solutions for large-scale problems.
method James-Stein estimator applied to Gaussian sketching of least squares problems.
result Upper and lower bounds match when SNR is small and data matrix is well-conditioned.
A method predicts posterior PCs for faster uncertainty quantification in imaging.
problem Uncertainty visualization in image restoration models is limited by per-pixel variances.
method Neural Posterior Principal Components (NPPC) method for predicting PCs in a single forward pass.
result Orders of magnitude faster uncertainty quantification compared to posterior samplers.
We propose an empirical Bayes estimator based on Dirichlet process mixture model for estimating the sparse normalized mean difference, which could be directly applied to the high dimensional linear classification. In theory, we build a bridge to connect the estimation error of the mean difference and the misclassificat…
We introduce a unified framework for random forest prediction error estimation based on a novel estimator of the conditional prediction error distribution function. Our framework enables simple plug-in estimation of key prediction uncertainty metrics, including conditional mean squared prediction errors, conditional bi…
This study calculates the maximum error of a famous estimation method.
problem Estimating rare items not seen in a sample.
method Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
result Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
This paper describes a recursive estimation procedure for multivariate binary densities (probability distributions of vectors of Bernoulli random variables) using orthogonal expansions. For d covariates, there are 2d basis coefficients to estimate, which renders conventional approaches computationally prohibitive …
A Bayesian approach termed BAyesian Least Squares Optimization with Nonnegative L1-norm constraint (BALSON) is proposed. The error distribution of data fitting is described by Gaussian likelihood. The parameter distribution is assumed to be a Dirichlet distribution. With the Bayes rule, searching for the optimal parame…
Paper solves outlier robust mean estimation near breakdown point.
problem Estimating mean in presence of adversarial outliers.
method Sum-of-Squares approach to optimize error rate efficiently.
result Achieves optimal error rate for all ε ∈ [0, 1/2).
New method optimizes tail dependence coefficient estimation.
problem Estimating tail dependence in nonparametric data.
method Optimal threshold selection combining mean squared error and copula estimation.
result Improved accuracy in tail dependence coefficient estimation.
Constrained adaptive filtering algorithms inculding constrained least mean square (CLMS), constrained affine projection (CAP) and constrained recursive least squares (CRLS) have been extensively studied in many applications. Most existing constrained adaptive filtering algorithms are developed under mean square error (…
Mack's estimator improves chain ladder prediction for large exposure insurance models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in compound Poisson loss models.
method Large exposure asymptotics applied to Mack's estimator.
result Chain ladder prediction uncertainty can be quantified without model assumptions.
Nonparametric modeling approaches show very promising results in the area of system identification and control. A naturally provided model confidence is highly relevant for system-theoretical considerations to provide guarantees for application scenarios. Gaussian process regression represents one approach which provid…
The most important aspect of any classifier is its error rate, because this quantifies its predictive capacity. Thus, the accuracy of error estimation is critical. Error estimation is problematic in small-sample classifier design because the error must be estimated using the same data from which the classifier has been…
Estimates chirp signal frequencies using probabilistic models.
problem Estimating instantaneous frequencies of chirp signals when true forms are unknown.
method Non-linear Gaussian processes and stochastic filters/smothers for posterior estimation.
result The method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Bayesian framework for sphere regression using Gaussian fields.
problem Nonparametric regression on the sphere with Gaussian priors.
method Isotropic Gaussian field priors, harmonic structure, exact posterior distributions, optimal spectral truncation, posterior contraction rates.
result Sharp posterior contraction rates for Gaussian priors with polynomially decaying angular power spectra.
Test log-likelihood comparisons can be misleading.
problem Misinterpretation of test log-likelihood in model comparison.
method Simple examples of model comparison and forecast accuracy.
result Test log-likelihood does not always correlate with model accuracy.
Develops a new method for estimating models with conditional moment restrictions.
problem Estimating models with conditional moment restrictions, especially non-parametric instrumental variable regression.
method Introduces a min-max criterion function to solve a zero-sum game between modeler and adversary, analyzing estimation rates for various hypothesis spaces.
result Shows that with regularization and rich test function spaces, estimation rates scale with the critical radius of hypothesis and test function spaces.